Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 7: the AC Milan vs Atalanta match is scheduled on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time). Our model makes AC Milan clear favourites: a 74% chance of winning, against 18% for the draw and 8% for Atalanta. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (16.1%), followed by 1-0 (15.5%) and 3-0 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average AC Milan score 1.60 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Atalanta score 0.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, AC Milan sit 5th with 11 points from 5 games, Atalanta 11th with 6 points from 5. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, AC Milan have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.80 for Atalanta.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Atalanta and 1 draw. The most recent ended AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta (May 10, 2026). Atalanta: K. Sulemana and I. Hien. In double chance terms, "AC Milan or draw" stands at 92%, "Atalanta or draw" at 26% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : AC Milan are tipped by our AI model in this AC Milan v Atalanta (74%). On recent form, AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Atalanta have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AC Milan – Atalanta. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AC Milan 2-0 Atalanta | 16.1% |
| AC Milan 1-0 Atalanta | 15.5% |
| AC Milan 3-0 Atalanta | 11.1% |
| AC Milan 2-1 Atalanta | 8.4% |
| AC Milan 1-1 Atalanta | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.07 expected goals for AC Milan and 0.52 for Atalanta, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 48% and "both teams to score" at 35%. AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 60% of scenarios, Atalanta in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AC Milan expected goals | 2.07 |
| Atalanta expected goals | 0.52 |
| Both teams to score | 35% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 60% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
AC Milan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 5 | 11 | 5 |
| Atalanta | 11 | 6 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta | Serie A |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Atalanta 1-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
AC Milan
No absences reported.
Atalanta
- K. Sulemana (out)
- I. Hien (out)
Most regular starters
AC Milan
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Ramos4/5
- K. De Winter4/5
- M. Maignan4/5
- S. Pavlovic4/5
- A. Cisse3/5
- L. Modric3/5
- M. Gila3/5
- S. Chukwueze3/5
- Y. Musah3/5
- A. Rabiot2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
Atalanta
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Ederson4/5
- G. Scalvini4/5
- M. Carnesecchi4/5
- O. Kossounou4/5
- S. Kolasinac4/5
- C. De Ketelaere3/5
- G. Gaetano3/5
- G. Scamacca3/5
- L. Samardzic3/5
- R. Bellanova3/5
- G. Raspadori2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Frosinone – SassuoloOct 16, 2026
- Venezia – NapoliOct 17, 2026
- Bologna – InterOct 17, 2026
- AS Roma – GenoaOct 17, 2026
- Udinese – LecceOct 18, 2026
- Fiorentina – ComoOct 18, 2026
- Juventus – LazioOct 18, 2026
- Monza – CagliariOct 19, 2026
- Parma – TorinoOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction?
Our AI gives AC Milan a 74% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Atalanta 8%. AC Milan are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
2-0 (16.1%), followed by 1-0 (15.5%), 3-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.4%) and 1-1 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The probability that both AC Milan and Atalanta score is 35%. AC Milan have a 60% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Atalanta 13%.
How many goals should we expect in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The model expects 2.59 goals (2.07 for AC Milan, 0.52 for Atalanta). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 73%, over 2.5 goals 48%, over 3.5 goals 26%.
When and where is AC Milan vs Atalanta played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 7.
What form are AC Milan and Atalanta in?
AC Milan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded). Atalanta: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Atalanta?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AC Milan, 1 for Atalanta and 1 draw. The most recent ended AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta (May 10, 2026).
How is the AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.07 for AC Milan, 0.52 for Atalanta) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All AC Milan predictions
- All Atalanta predictions
- Serie A predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology