Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
AS Roma vs Genoa prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Serie A, matchday 7: the AS Roma vs Genoa match is scheduled on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. With a 93% win probability, AS Roma go in as strong favourites against Genoa (2%), with the draw rated at 5%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (11.5%), ahead of 4-0 (11.5%) and 5-0 (9.2%).
AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Genoa have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 9. Recent momentum is clearly with AS Roma. On average AS Roma score 2.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Genoa score 0.80 and concede 1.80. In the table, AS Roma sit 1st with 13 points from 5 games, Genoa 19th with 1 points from 5. 18 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, AS Roma have averaged 2.46 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.12 for Genoa.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Genoa and 1 draw. The most recent ended Genoa 2-1 AS Roma (Mar 8, 2026). AS Roma out or doubtful: M. Bah, B. Cristante (doubtful), D. Malen (doubtful) and Wesley Franca (doubtful). Genoa: L. Venturino, L. Colombo, F. Meichtry and E. Havel (doubtful). In double chance terms, "AS Roma or draw" stands at 98%, "Genoa or draw" at 7% and "no draw" at 95%.
In short : AS Roma are tipped by our AI model in this AS Roma v Genoa (93%). On recent form, AS Roma have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Genoa have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AS Roma – Genoa. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 47% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma 3-0 Genoa | 11.5% |
| AS Roma 4-0 Genoa | 11.5% |
| AS Roma 5-0 Genoa | 9.2% |
| AS Roma 2-0 Genoa | 8.6% |
| AS Roma 6-0 Genoa | 6.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 4.53 goals in total (4.00 for AS Roma, 0.53 for Genoa): over 2.5 goals has a 83% probability and both teams to score 40%. Everything points to an open game. AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 59% of scenarios, Genoa in 2%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AS Roma expected goals | 4.00 |
| Genoa expected goals | 0.53 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 59% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 2% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid · Club Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1 | 13 | 5 |
| Genoa | 19 | 1 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Genoa 2-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Dec 29, 2025 | AS Roma 3-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Jan 17, 2025 | AS Roma 3-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Genoa 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| May 19, 2024 | AS Roma 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
AS Roma
- M. Bah (out)
- B. Cristante (doubtful)
- D. Malen (doubtful)
- Wesley Franca (doubtful)
Genoa
- L. Venturino (out)
- L. Colombo (out)
- F. Meichtry (out)
- E. Havel (doubtful)
Most regular starters
AS Roma
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Cristante4/5
- D. Malen4/5
- G. Mancini4/5
- M. Svilar4/5
- P. Dybala4/5
- E. Lulli3/5
- M. Hermoso3/5
- E. Ndicka2/5
- M. Kone2/5
- M. Soule2/5
- Wesley2/5
Genoa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Marcandalli4/4
- T. Baldanzi4/4
- D. Sow3/4
- J. Bijlow3/4
- L. Ostigard3/4
- M. E. Ellertsson3/4
- M. Frendrup3/4
- M. Osmajic3/4
- J. Vasquez2/4
- K. Ehizibue2/4
- L. Colombo2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Frosinone – SassuoloOct 16, 2026
- Venezia – NapoliOct 17, 2026
- Bologna – InterOct 17, 2026
- Udinese – LecceOct 18, 2026
- Fiorentina – ComoOct 18, 2026
- AC Milan – AtalantaOct 18, 2026
- Juventus – LazioOct 18, 2026
- Monza – CagliariOct 19, 2026
- Parma – TorinoOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the AS Roma vs Genoa prediction?
Our AI gives AS Roma a 93% chance of winning, the draw 5% and Genoa 2%. AS Roma are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for AS Roma vs Genoa?
3-0 (11.5%), followed by 4-0 (11.5%), 5-0 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 6-0 (6.1%).
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
The probability that both AS Roma and Genoa score is 40%. AS Roma have a 59% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Genoa 2%.
How many goals should we expect in AS Roma vs Genoa?
The model expects 4.53 goals (4.00 for AS Roma, 0.53 for Genoa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 94%, over 2.5 goals 83%, over 3.5 goals 66%.
When and where is AS Roma vs Genoa played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 7. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in?
AS Roma: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded). Genoa: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Genoa and 1 draw. The most recent ended Genoa 2-1 AS Roma (Mar 8, 2026).
How is the AS Roma vs Genoa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.00 for AS Roma, 0.53 for Genoa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.