Serie A· Kick-off : Monday, October 19, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Monza vs Cagliari prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Monza take on Cagliari on Monday, October 19, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), a Serie A, matchday 7 fixture. Cagliari start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Monza are given 26% and the draw 23%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (10.6%), followed by 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-1 (8.5%).
Monza have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 10. Over their last 5 matches, Cagliari have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Cagliari therefore arrive in far better shape than Monza. On average Monza score 1.80 and concede 2.00 goals per game; Cagliari score 1.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Monza sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, Cagliari 4th with 12 points from 5. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Monza have averaged 2.01 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.13 for Cagliari.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Monza and Cagliari: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Monza out or doubtful: I. Touré, J. Ziółkowski and M. Pessina. Cagliari: M'Bala Nzola, Y. Trepy and Riyad Idrissi. In double chance terms, "Monza or draw" stands at 49%, "Cagliari or draw" at 74% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Cagliari are favourites for this Monza v Cagliari, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Monza have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Cagliari have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Monza will be without I. Touré and J. Ziółkowski.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Monza – Cagliari. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Monza 1-1 Cagliari | 10.6% |
| Monza 1-2 Cagliari | 9.6% |
| Monza 0-1 Cagliari | 8.5% |
| Monza 0-2 Cagliari | 7.7% |
| Monza 2-1 Cagliari | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.25 expected goals for Monza and 1.81 for Cagliari, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Monza keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Cagliari in 29%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Monza expected goals | 1.25 |
| Cagliari expected goals | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Monza clean sheet | 16% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 29% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Monza
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29 · Club Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cremonese · Club Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sassuolo · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
Cagliari
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Hellas Verona · Coppa Italia | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 16 | 4 | 5 |
| Cagliari | 4 | 12 | 5 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Monza and Cagliari: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Monza
- I. Touré (out)
- J. Ziółkowski (out)
- M. Pessina (out)
Cagliari
- M'Bala Nzola (out)
- Y. Trepy (out)
- Riyad Idrissi (out)
Most regular starters
Monza
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Lucchesi5/5
- A. Carboni4/5
- E. Akinsanmiro4/5
- R. Mangas4/5
- S. Birindelli4/5
- D. Mota3/5
- E. Kouadio3/5
- J. Robinson3/5
- M. Folorunsho3/5
- A. Colpani2/5
- A. Strajnar2/5
Cagliari
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Winks5/5
- J. Rodriguez5/5
- P. Mendy5/5
- A. Deiola4/5
- A. Obert4/5
- A. Romano4/5
- D. Maldini4/5
- E. Caprile4/5
- J. Fazzini4/5
- J. Pedro4/5
- M. Adopo4/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Monza vs Cagliari prediction?
Our AI gives Monza a 26% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cagliari 51%. Cagliari are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Monza vs Cagliari?
1-1 (10.6%), followed by 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%), 0-2 (7.7%) and 2-1 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in Monza vs Cagliari?
The probability that both Monza and Cagliari score is 60%. Monza have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cagliari 29%.
How many goals should we expect in Monza vs Cagliari?
The model expects 3.06 goals (1.25 for Monza, 1.81 for Cagliari). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Monza vs Cagliari played?
Monday, October 19, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 7.
What form are Monza and Cagliari in?
Monza: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded). Cagliari: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Monza vs Cagliari prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.25 for Monza, 1.81 for Cagliari) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.