Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, October 17, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Venezia vs Napoli prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Venezia take on Napoli on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), a Serie A, matchday 7 fixture. Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice. Napoli start as favourites with a 59% chance of victory; Venezia are given 20% and the draw 21%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.9%), followed by 1-1 (9.9%) and 0-2 (9.4%).
Venezia have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 13. Napoli have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. Napoli therefore arrive in far better shape than Venezia. On average Venezia score 1.00 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Napoli score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Venezia sit 20th with 0 points from 5 games, Napoli 9th with 7 points from 5. 11 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Venezia have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.60 for Napoli.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Venezia, 3 for Napoli and 1 draw. The most recent ended Venezia 0-0 Napoli (Mar 16, 2025). Venezia out or doubtful: B. Franjić, A. Adorante, T. Bašić and M. Šverko. Napoli: A. Buongiorno, C. Favasuli, A. Vergara, Alisson Santos (doubtful), F. Anguissa (doubtful), Giovane (doubtful), L. Marianucci (doubtful) and S. McTominay (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Venezia or draw" stands at 41%, "Napoli or draw" at 80% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Our model backs Napoli to edge Venezia (59% probability). On recent form, Venezia are struggling (5 losses in 5) while Napoli have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 59%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Venezia – Napoli. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Venezia 1-2 Napoli | 9.9% |
| Venezia 1-1 Napoli | 9.9% |
| Venezia 0-2 Napoli | 9.4% |
| Venezia 0-1 Napoli | 9.3% |
| Venezia 1-3 Napoli | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.06 expected goals for Venezia and 2.01 for Napoli, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Goals look likely in this one. Venezia keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Napoli in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Venezia expected goals | 1.06 |
| Napoli expected goals | 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Venezia clean sheet | 13% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Venezia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Udinese · Coppa Italia | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 28, 2026 | AC Milan · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 20 | 0 | 5 |
| Napoli | 9 | 7 | 5 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | Venezia 0-0 Napoli | Serie A |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Napoli 1-0 Venezia | Serie A |
| Feb 6, 2022 | Venezia 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Napoli 2-0 Venezia | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Venezia
- B. Franjić (out)
- A. Adorante (out)
- T. Bašić (out)
- M. Šverko (out)
Napoli
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- C. Favasuli (out)
- A. Vergara (out)
- Alisson Santos (doubtful)
- F. Anguissa (doubtful)
- Giovane (doubtful)
- L. Marianucci (doubtful)
- S. McTominay (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Venezia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Adams4/5
- A. Hainaut4/5
- F. Stankovic4/5
- J. Schingtienne4/5
- K. Perez4/5
- S. Sohm4/5
- A. Bella-Kotchap3/5
- G. Busio3/5
- J. Yeboah3/5
- R. Haps3/5
- A. Rrahmani2/5
Napoli
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Rrahmani4/5
- G. Di Lorenzo4/5
- M. Politano4/5
- R. Hojlund4/5
- R. Marin4/5
- S. Lobotka4/5
- A. Meret3/5
- A. Vergara2/5
- Alisson Santos2/5
- B. Gilmour2/5
- F. Anguissa2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Frosinone – SassuoloOct 16, 2026
- Bologna – InterOct 17, 2026
- AS Roma – GenoaOct 17, 2026
- Udinese – LecceOct 18, 2026
- Fiorentina – ComoOct 18, 2026
- AC Milan – AtalantaOct 18, 2026
- Juventus – LazioOct 18, 2026
- Monza – CagliariOct 19, 2026
- Parma – TorinoOct 19, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Venezia vs Napoli prediction?
Our AI gives Venezia a 20% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Napoli 59%. Napoli are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Venezia vs Napoli?
1-2 (9.9%), followed by 1-1 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.3%) and 1-3 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Napoli?
The probability that both Venezia and Napoli score is 57%. Venezia have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Venezia vs Napoli?
The model expects 3.07 goals (1.06 for Venezia, 2.01 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Venezia vs Napoli played?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 7. Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice.
What form are Venezia and Napoli in?
Venezia: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 13 conceded). Napoli: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Napoli?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Venezia, 3 for Napoli and 1 draw. The most recent ended Venezia 0-0 Napoli (Mar 16, 2025).
How is the Venezia vs Napoli prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.06 for Venezia, 2.01 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.