Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
AC Milan vs Lecce: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: AC Milan 3-0 Lecce. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for AC Milan was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
Match analysis
AC Milan vs Lecce was played on Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 5). Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano. Before kick-off, our model gave AC Milan a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lecce 20%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (10.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Lecce have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 9. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average AC Milan score 1.40 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Lecce score 1.00 and concede 1.80. In the table, AC Milan sit 6th with 8 points from 4 games, Lecce 12th with 6 points from 4. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, AC Milan have averaged 1.34 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.26 for Lecce.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for AC Milan, 0 for Lecce and 0 draws. The most recent ended AC Milan 1-0 Lecce (Jan 18, 2026). Lecce: W. Geubbels, M. Berisha and O. Gandelman. In double chance terms, "AC Milan or draw" stands at 80%, "Lecce or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AC Milan – Lecce. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AC Milan 1-0 Lecce | 11.7% |
| AC Milan 1-1 Lecce | 11.1% |
| AC Milan 2-0 Lecce | 10.3% |
| AC Milan 2-1 Lecce | 9.8% |
| AC Milan 0-0 Lecce | 6.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.72 goals in total (1.77 for AC Milan, 0.95 for Lecce): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Lecce in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AC Milan expected goals | 1.77 |
| Lecce expected goals | 0.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 39% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
AC Milan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Benfica · UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
Lecce
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Palermo · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Lecce | 12 | 6 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | AC Milan 1-0 Lecce | Serie A |
| Sep 23, 2025 | AC Milan 3-0 Lecce | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Lecce 0-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
AC Milan
No absences reported.
Lecce
- W. Geubbels (out)
- M. Berisha (out)
- O. Gandelman (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Monza 2-1 SassuoloSep 18, 2026
- Udinese 0-1 CagliariSep 19, 2026
- Bologna 1-1 TorinoSep 19, 2026
- AS Roma 2-2 InterSep 19, 2026
- Venezia 0-2 LazioSep 19, 2026
- Fiorentina 1-1 NapoliSep 20, 2026
- Parma 2-1 GenoaSep 20, 2026
- Frosinone 2-0 ComoSep 20, 2026
- Juventus 2-0 AtalantaSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the AC Milan vs Lecce prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave AC Milan a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lecce 20%. AC Milan are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for AC Milan vs Lecce?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.6%).
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Lecce?
The probability that both AC Milan and Lecce score is 51%. AC Milan have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Lecce 17%.
How many goals should we expect in AC Milan vs Lecce?
The model expects 2.72 goals (1.77 for AC Milan, 0.95 for Lecce). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is AC Milan vs Lecce played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 5. Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano.
What form are AC Milan and Lecce in?
AC Milan: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 6 conceded). Lecce: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Lecce?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for AC Milan, 0 for Lecce and 0 draws. The most recent ended AC Milan 1-0 Lecce (Jan 18, 2026).
What was the AC Milan vs Lecce result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: AC Milan 3-0 Lecce. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for AC Milan was the model's favourite outcome (57%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.1%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (51%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): correct.
How is the AC Milan vs Lecce prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.77 for AC Milan, 0.95 for Lecce) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.