Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
AS Roma vs Inter: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: AS Roma 2-2 Inter. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AS Roma (55%), while a draw was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 3-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (87%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (92%): correct.
Match analysis
AS Roma vs Inter was played on Saturday, September 19, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 5). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Before kick-off, our model gave AS Roma a 55% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Inter 29%. The most likely correct score is 3-2 (5.8%), ahead of 2-2 (5.5%) and 3-1 (4.9%).
AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 13 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Inter have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 14 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average AS Roma score 2.60 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Inter score 2.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, AS Roma sit 1st with 12 points from 4 games, Inter 2nd with 12 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, AS Roma have averaged 2.81 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.69 for Inter.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Inter and 0 draws. The most recent ended Inter 5-2 AS Roma (Apr 5, 2026). AS Roma out or doubtful: M. Bah and E. Ndicka. Inter: H. Calhanoglu, D. Spence and J. Stones. In double chance terms, "AS Roma or draw" stands at 71%, "Inter or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 84%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AS Roma – Inter. 3-2 is the single most likely scoreline (5.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 25% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AS Roma 3-2 Inter | 5.8% |
| AS Roma 2-2 Inter | 5.5% |
| AS Roma 3-1 Inter | 4.9% |
| AS Roma 4-2 Inter | 4.6% |
| AS Roma 3-3 Inter | 4.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 5.56 goals in total (3.18 for AS Roma, 2.38 for Inter): over 2.5 goals has a 92% probability and both teams to score 87%. Everything points to an open game. AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, Inter in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AS Roma expected goals | 3.18 |
| Inter expected goals | 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 87% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 98% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 81% |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 9% |
| Inter clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 4-0 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 4-0 | W |
Inter
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 5-3 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 1 | 12 | 4 |
| Inter | 2 | 12 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Inter 5-2 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2025 | AS Roma 0-1 Inter | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
AS Roma
- M. Bah (out)
- E. Ndicka (out)
Inter
- H. Calhanoglu (out)
- D. Spence (out)
- J. Stones (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Monza 2-1 SassuoloSep 18, 2026
- Udinese 0-1 CagliariSep 19, 2026
- Bologna 1-1 TorinoSep 19, 2026
- Venezia 0-2 LazioSep 19, 2026
- Fiorentina 1-1 NapoliSep 20, 2026
- Parma 2-1 GenoaSep 20, 2026
- Frosinone 2-0 ComoSep 20, 2026
- Juventus 2-0 AtalantaSep 20, 2026
- AC Milan 3-0 LecceSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the AS Roma vs Inter prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave AS Roma a 55% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Inter 29%. AS Roma are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for AS Roma vs Inter?
3-2 (5.8%), followed by 2-2 (5.5%), 3-1 (4.9%), 4-2 (4.6%) and 3-3 (4.6%).
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
The probability that both AS Roma and Inter score is 87%. AS Roma have a 9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Inter 4%.
How many goals should we expect in AS Roma vs Inter?
The model expects 5.56 goals (3.18 for AS Roma, 2.38 for Inter). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 98%, over 2.5 goals 92%, over 3.5 goals 81%.
When and where is AS Roma vs Inter played?
Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 5. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 2 conceded). Inter: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (14 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Inter and 0 draws. The most recent ended Inter 5-2 AS Roma (Apr 5, 2026).
What was the AS Roma vs Inter result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: AS Roma 2-2 Inter. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for AS Roma (55%), while a draw was rated at only 16%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 3-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (87%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (92%): correct.
How is the AS Roma vs Inter prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.18 for AS Roma, 2.38 for Inter) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.