Serie A· Kick-off : Friday, September 18, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Monza vs Sassuolo: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Monza 2-1 Sassuolo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sassuolo (40%), while victory for Monza was rated at only 33%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): correct.
Match analysis
Monza and Sassuolo met on Friday, September 18, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza. Before kick-off, our model gave Monza a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sassuolo 40%. On the correct score, 1-2 comes out on top (9.0%), followed by 1-3 (7.5%) and 1-1 (7.1%).
Monza have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Sassuolo have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Sassuolo therefore arrive in far better shape than Monza. On average Monza score 1.40 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Sassuolo score 1.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Monza sit 18th with 1 points from 4 games, Sassuolo 9th with 7 points from 4. 9 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Monza have averaged 1.86 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.80 for Sassuolo.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Monza, 0 for Sassuolo and 2 draws. Monza out or doubtful: P. Ciurria, C. Ngonge, M. Pessina, I. Toure and J. Ziolkowski. Sassuolo: D. Boloca, F. Cande, I. Kone, Y. Paz and E. Pieragnolo. In double chance terms, "Monza or draw" stands at 60%, "Sassuolo or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 72%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Monza – Sassuolo. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Monza 1-2 Sassuolo | 9.0% |
| Monza 1-3 Sassuolo | 7.5% |
| Monza 1-1 Sassuolo | 7.1% |
| Monza 0-2 Sassuolo | 6.8% |
| Monza 2-2 Sassuolo | 6.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.33 expected goals for Monza and 2.52 for Sassuolo, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 74% and "both teams to score" at 68%. Goals look likely in this one. Monza keep a clean sheet in 8% of scenarios, Sassuolo in 26%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Monza expected goals | 1.33 |
| Sassuolo expected goals | 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 68% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% |
| Monza clean sheet | 8% |
| Sassuolo clean sheet | 26% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Monza
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Torino · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
Sassuolo
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Frosinone · Coppa Italia | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 18 | 1 | 4 |
| Sassuolo | 9 | 7 | 4 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Monza, 0 for Sassuolo and 2 draws.
Out and doubtful
Monza
- P. Ciurria (out)
- C. Ngonge (out)
- M. Pessina (out)
- I. Toure (out)
- J. Ziolkowski (out)
Sassuolo
- D. Boloca (out)
- F. Cande (out)
- I. Kone (out)
- Y. Paz (out)
- E. Pieragnolo (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Inter 5-3 UdineseSep 14, 2026
- Udinese 0-1 CagliariSep 19, 2026
- Bologna 1-1 TorinoSep 19, 2026
- AS Roma 2-2 InterSep 19, 2026
- Venezia 0-2 LazioSep 19, 2026
- Fiorentina 1-1 NapoliSep 20, 2026
- Parma 2-1 GenoaSep 20, 2026
- Frosinone 2-0 ComoSep 20, 2026
- Juventus 2-0 AtalantaSep 20, 2026
- AC Milan 3-0 LecceSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Monza vs Sassuolo prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Monza a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sassuolo 40%. Sassuolo are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Monza vs Sassuolo?
1-2 (9.0%), followed by 1-3 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.1%), 0-2 (6.8%) and 2-2 (6.0%).
Will both teams score in Monza vs Sassuolo?
The probability that both Monza and Sassuolo score is 68%. Monza have a 8% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sassuolo 26%.
How many goals should we expect in Monza vs Sassuolo?
The model expects 3.85 goals (1.33 for Monza, 2.52 for Sassuolo). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 90%, over 2.5 goals 74%, over 3.5 goals 54%.
When and where is Monza vs Sassuolo played?
Friday, September 18, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 5. Venue: U-Power Stadium, Monza.
What form are Monza and Sassuolo in?
Monza: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 11 conceded). Sassuolo: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Sassuolo?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Monza, 0 for Sassuolo and 2 draws.
What was the Monza vs Sassuolo result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Monza 2-1 Sassuolo. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Sassuolo (40%), while victory for Monza was rated at only 33%. The final score ranked 10th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 1-2. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (68%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (74%): correct.
How is the Monza vs Sassuolo prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.33 for Monza, 2.52 for Sassuolo) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.