Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Parma vs Genoa: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Parma 2-1 Genoa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (35%), while victory for Parma was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (23%): missed.
Match analysis
Parma and Genoa met on Sunday, September 20, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. Before kick-off, our model gave Parma a 30% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Genoa 35%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (19.2%), followed by 0-1 (16.7%) and 1-0 (15.0%).
Parma have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 8. Genoa have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Genoa therefore arrive in far better shape than Parma. On average Parma score 0.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Genoa score 0.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Parma sit 18th with 1 points from 4 games, Genoa 19th with 1 points from 4. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Parma have averaged 0.72 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.94 for Genoa.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws. The most recent ended Parma 0-0 Genoa (Jan 18, 2026). Parma out or doubtful: H. Nicolussi Caviglia and O. Diallo. Genoa: E. Havel, J. Vasquez and L. Venturino. In double chance terms, "Parma or draw" stands at 65%, "Genoa or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 65%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Parma – Genoa. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 71% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Parma 0-0 Genoa | 19.2% |
| Parma 0-1 Genoa | 16.7% |
| Parma 1-0 Genoa | 15.0% |
| Parma 1-1 Genoa | 13.0% |
| Parma 0-2 Genoa | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.78 expected goals for Parma and 0.87 for Genoa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 23% and "both teams to score" at 32%. Few goals are expected here. Parma keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Genoa in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Parma expected goals | 0.78 |
| Genoa expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% |
| Parma clean sheet | 42% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Parma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Cremonese · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 18 | 1 | 4 |
| Genoa | 19 | 1 | 4 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Parma 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Genoa 0-0 Parma | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Parma
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia (out)
- O. Diallo (out)
Genoa
- E. Havel (out)
- J. Vasquez (out)
- L. Venturino (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Monza 2-1 SassuoloSep 18, 2026
- Udinese 0-1 CagliariSep 19, 2026
- Bologna 1-1 TorinoSep 19, 2026
- AS Roma 2-2 InterSep 19, 2026
- Venezia 0-2 LazioSep 19, 2026
- Fiorentina 1-1 NapoliSep 20, 2026
- Frosinone 2-0 ComoSep 20, 2026
- Juventus 2-0 AtalantaSep 20, 2026
- AC Milan 3-0 LecceSep 20, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Parma vs Genoa prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Parma a 30% chance of winning, the draw 35% and Genoa 35%. A draw is therefore the most likely outcome. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Parma vs Genoa?
0-0 (19.2%), followed by 0-1 (16.7%), 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (13.0%) and 0-2 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Parma vs Genoa?
The probability that both Parma and Genoa score is 32%. Parma have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Genoa 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Parma vs Genoa?
The model expects 1.65 goals (0.78 for Parma, 0.87 for Genoa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 23%, over 3.5 goals 9%.
When and where is Parma vs Genoa played?
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 5. Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma.
What form are Parma and Genoa in?
Parma: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 8 conceded). Genoa: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Genoa?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Parma, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws. The most recent ended Parma 0-0 Genoa (Jan 18, 2026).
What was the Parma vs Genoa result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Parma 2-1 Genoa. The outcome was missed: the model favoured a draw (35%), while victory for Parma was rated at only 30%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (23%): missed.
How is the Parma vs Genoa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.78 for Parma, 0.87 for Genoa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.