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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 20, 2026, 11:30 (UK time)

Fiorentina vs Napoli: 1-1 result and AI prediction review

FiorentinaFiorentina1 – 1NapoliNapoli

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score foundMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Napoli (45%), while a draw was rated at only 23%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): missed.

Match analysis

Fiorentina vs Napoli was played on Sunday, September 20, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 5). Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Before kick-off, our model gave Fiorentina a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Napoli 45%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (9.9%), ahead of 1-2 (9.0%) and 2-1 (7.4%).

Over their last 5 matches, Fiorentina have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Napoli have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Fiorentina score 1.60 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Napoli score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Fiorentina sit 16th with 3 points from 4 games, Napoli 10th with 6 points from 4. 6 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Fiorentina have averaged 1.87 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.45 for Napoli.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Napoli and 0 draws. The most recent ended Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina (Jan 31, 2026). Fiorentina out or doubtful: F. Parisi and R. Sottil. Napoli: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno, Giovane, L. Marianucci and S. McTominay. In double chance terms, "Fiorentina or draw" stands at 55%, "Napoli or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 77%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

32%
Fiorentina (Win)
23%
Draw
45%
Napoli (Win)

Double chance

55%
Fiorentina or draw
68%
Napoli or draw
77%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Fiorentina – Napoli. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 40% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli9.9%
Fiorentina 1-2 Napoli9.0%
Fiorentina 2-1 Napoli7.4%
Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli6.7%
Fiorentina 0-1 Napoli6.6%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 3.31 goals in total (1.50 for Fiorentina, 1.81 for Napoli): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 65%. Everything points to an open game. Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Napoli in 22%.

Probability
Fiorentina expected goals1.50
Napoli expected goals1.81
Both teams to score65%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Fiorentina clean sheet16%
Napoli clean sheet22%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Fiorentina

DateOpponentScore
Sep 15, 2026Pisa · Coppa Italia3-0W
Sep 11, 2026Venezia · Serie A4-2W
Sep 5, 2026Torino · Serie A1-2L
Aug 29, 2026Frosinone · Serie A0-3L
Aug 24, 2026AS Roma · Serie A0-4L

Napoli

DateOpponentScore
Sep 13, 2026Bologna · Serie A1-0W
Sep 9, 2026Arsenal · UEFA Champions League0-1L
Sep 5, 2026Inter · Serie A2-3L
Aug 30, 2026Como · Serie A1-2L
Aug 22, 2026Genoa · Serie A2-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Fiorentina1634
Napoli1064

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 31, 2026Napoli 2-1 FiorentinaSerie A
Sep 13, 2025Fiorentina 1-3 NapoliSerie A

Out and doubtful

Fiorentina

  • F. Parisi (out)
  • R. Sottil (out)

Napoli

  • Alisson Santos (out)
  • A. Buongiorno (out)
  • Giovane (out)
  • L. Marianucci (out)
  • S. McTominay (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Fiorentina a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Napoli 45%. Napoli are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Fiorentina vs Napoli?

1-1 (9.9%), followed by 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (6.7%) and 0-1 (6.6%).

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?

The probability that both Fiorentina and Napoli score is 65%. Fiorentina have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Napoli 22%.

How many goals should we expect in Fiorentina vs Napoli?

The model expects 3.31 goals (1.50 for Fiorentina, 1.81 for Napoli). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.

When and where is Fiorentina vs Napoli played?

Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 11:30 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 5. Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence.

What form are Fiorentina and Napoli in?

Fiorentina: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 11 conceded). Napoli: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Napoli and 0 draws. The most recent ended Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina (Jan 31, 2026).

What was the Fiorentina vs Napoli result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Napoli (45%), while a draw was rated at only 23%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (9.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (65%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): missed.

How is the Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.50 for Fiorentina, 1.81 for Napoli) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained