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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 19, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)

Udinese vs Cagliari: 0-1 result and AI prediction review

UdineseUdinese0 – 1CagliariCagliari

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-0

Final score: Udinese 0-1 Cagliari. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Udinese (43%), while victory for Cagliari was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (10.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.

Match analysis

Udinese and Cagliari met on Saturday, September 19, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 5 fixture. Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine. Before kick-off, our model gave Udinese a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Cagliari 27%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.6%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%) and 0-0 (12.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Udinese have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Over their last 5 matches, Cagliari have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Udinese score 2.00 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Cagliari score 1.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, Udinese sit 13th with 4 points from 4 games, Cagliari 5th with 9 points from 4. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Udinese have averaged 1.22 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.09 for Cagliari.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Udinese, 0 for Cagliari and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cagliari 0-2 Udinese (May 9, 2026). Udinese out or doubtful: J. Arizala, M. Palma, J. Piotrowski, O. Solet and N. Zaniolo. Cagliari: M. Felici, R. Idrissi, M. Nzola, Y. Trepy and J. Pedro. In double chance terms, "Udinese or draw" stands at 73%, "Cagliari or draw" at 57% and "no draw" at 71%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

43%
Udinese (Win)
29%
Draw
27%
Cagliari (Win)

Double chance

73%
Udinese or draw
57%
Cagliari or draw
71%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Udinese – Cagliari. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 60% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Udinese 1-0 Cagliari14.6%
Udinese 1-1 Cagliari13.2%
Udinese 0-0 Cagliari12.0%
Udinese 0-1 Cagliari10.8%
Udinese 2-0 Cagliari8.9%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.22 expected goals for Udinese and 0.90 for Cagliari, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Few goals are expected here. Udinese keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Cagliari in 30%.

Probability
Udinese expected goals1.22
Cagliari expected goals0.90
Both teams to score42%
Over 1.5 goals63%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Udinese clean sheet41%
Cagliari clean sheet30%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Udinese

DateOpponentScore
Sep 14, 2026Inter · Serie A3-5L
Sep 7, 2026Lazio · Serie A1-2L
Sep 2, 2026Venezia · Coppa Italia2-1W
Aug 29, 2026Monza · Serie A3-2W
Aug 22, 2026Como · Serie A1-1D

Cagliari

DateOpponentScore
Sep 12, 2026Atalanta · Serie A2-1W
Sep 7, 2026Lecce · Serie A1-0W
Sep 3, 2026Hellas Verona · Coppa Italia1-2L
Aug 30, 2026Inter · Serie A0-1L
Aug 22, 2026Parma · Serie A1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Udinese1344
Cagliari594

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
May 9, 2026Cagliari 0-2 UdineseSerie A
Oct 5, 2025Udinese 1-1 CagliariSerie A

Out and doubtful

Udinese

  • J. Arizala (out)
  • M. Palma (out)
  • J. Piotrowski (out)
  • O. Solet (out)
  • N. Zaniolo (out)

Cagliari

  • M. Felici (out)
  • R. Idrissi (out)
  • M. Nzola (out)
  • Y. Trepy (out)
  • J. Pedro (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Udinese vs Cagliari prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Udinese a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Cagliari 27%. Udinese are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-1.

What is the most likely correct score for Udinese vs Cagliari?

1-0 (14.6%), followed by 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.8%) and 2-0 (8.9%).

Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cagliari?

The probability that both Udinese and Cagliari score is 42%. Udinese have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cagliari 30%.

How many goals should we expect in Udinese vs Cagliari?

The model expects 2.12 goals (1.22 for Udinese, 0.90 for Cagliari). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.

When and where is Udinese vs Cagliari played?

Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 5. Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine.

What form are Udinese and Cagliari in?

Udinese: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 11 conceded). Cagliari: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Udinese, 0 for Cagliari and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cagliari 0-2 Udinese (May 9, 2026).

What was the Udinese vs Cagliari result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Udinese 0-1 Cagliari. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Udinese (43%), while victory for Cagliari was rated at only 27%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (10.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.

How is the Udinese vs Cagliari prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.22 for Udinese, 0.90 for Cagliari) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained