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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Atalanta vs Cagliari: 1-2 result and AI prediction review

AtalantaAtalanta1 – 2CagliariCagliari

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cagliari at 39%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (29%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (20%): missed.

Match analysis

Atalanta and Cagliari met on Saturday, September 12, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Before kick-off, our model gave Atalanta a 25% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Cagliari 39%. On the correct score, 0-0 comes out on top (21.2%), followed by 0-1 (18.9%) and 1-0 (14.0%).

Over their last 5 matches, Atalanta have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Over their last 5 matches, Cagliari have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Atalanta score 1.00 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Cagliari score 0.80 and concede 0.60. In the table, Atalanta sit 8th with 6 points from 3 games, Cagliari 9th with 6 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Atalanta have averaged 0.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.01 for Cagliari.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atalanta, 1 for Cagliari and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta (Apr 27, 2026). Atalanta out or doubtful: G. Gaetano, I. Hien and K. Sulemana. Cagliari: R. Idrissi, Kevin, Y. Mina, M. Nzola and Y. Sugawara. In double chance terms, "Atalanta or draw" stands at 61%, "Cagliari or draw" at 75% and "no draw" at 64%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

25%
Atalanta (Win)
36%
Draw
39%
Cagliari (Win)

Double chance

61%
Atalanta or draw
75%
Cagliari or draw
64%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Atalanta – Cagliari. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (21.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 75% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Atalanta 0-0 Cagliari21.2%
Atalanta 0-1 Cagliari18.9%
Atalanta 1-0 Cagliari14.0%
Atalanta 1-1 Cagliari12.5%
Atalanta 0-2 Cagliari8.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 0.66 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.89 for Cagliari, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 20% and "both teams to score" at 29%. Few goals are expected here. Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Cagliari in 52%.

Probability
Atalanta expected goals0.66
Cagliari expected goals0.89
Both teams to score29%
Over 1.5 goals46%
Over 2.5 goals20%
Over 3.5 goals7%
Atalanta clean sheet41%
Cagliari clean sheet52%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Atalanta

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026AS Roma · Serie A1-2L
Aug 31, 2026Bologna · Serie A1-0W
Aug 27, 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League1-0W
Aug 23, 2026Sassuolo · Serie A2-1W
Aug 20, 2026Hapoel Tel Aviv · UEFA Conference League0-0D

Cagliari

DateOpponentScore
Sep 7, 2026Lecce · Serie A1-0W
Sep 3, 2026Hellas Verona · Coppa Italia1-2L
Aug 30, 2026Inter · Serie A0-1L
Aug 22, 2026Parma · Serie A1-0W
Aug 14, 2026Arezzo · Coppa Italia1-0W

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Atalanta863
Cagliari963

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 27, 2026Cagliari 3-2 AtalantaSerie A
Dec 13, 2025Atalanta 2-1 CagliariSerie A

Out and doubtful

Atalanta

  • G. Gaetano (out)
  • I. Hien (out)
  • K. Sulemana (out)

Cagliari

  • R. Idrissi (out)
  • Kevin (out)
  • Y. Mina (out)
  • M. Nzola (out)
  • Y. Sugawara (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Atalanta a 25% chance of winning, the draw 36% and Cagliari 39%. Cagliari are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.

What is the most likely correct score for Atalanta vs Cagliari?

0-0 (21.2%), followed by 0-1 (18.9%), 1-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (12.5%) and 0-2 (8.4%).

Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?

The probability that both Atalanta and Cagliari score is 29%. Atalanta have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cagliari 52%.

How many goals should we expect in Atalanta vs Cagliari?

The model expects 1.55 goals (0.66 for Atalanta, 0.89 for Cagliari). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 46%, over 2.5 goals 20%, over 3.5 goals 7%.

When and where is Atalanta vs Cagliari played?

Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo.

What form are Atalanta and Cagliari in?

Atalanta: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 3 conceded). Cagliari: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cagliari?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Atalanta, 1 for Cagliari and 0 draws. The most recent ended Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta (Apr 27, 2026).

What was the Atalanta vs Cagliari result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Cagliari at 39%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (5.5%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (29%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (20%): missed.

How is the Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.66 for Atalanta, 0.89 for Cagliari) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

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Key terms explained