Serie A· Kick-off : Monday, September 14, 2026, 17:30 (UK time)
Como vs Parma: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Como 2-1 Parma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Como was the model's favourite outcome (81%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (23%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
Match analysis
Como vs Parma was played on Monday, September 14, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 4). Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como. Before kick-off, our model gave Como a 81% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Parma 5%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (16.9%), ahead of 2-0 (16.9%) and 4-0 (12.7%).
Como are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 11 and conceding 4. Parma have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Como. On average Como score 2.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Parma score 0.60 and concede 1.20. In the table, Como sit 6th with 7 points from 3 games, Parma 16th with 1 points from 3. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Como have averaged 1.44 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.58 for Parma.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Como, 0 for Parma and 1 draw. The most recent ended Como 1-0 Parma (May 17, 2026). Como out or doubtful: J. Addai, M. Caqueret, E. Goldaniga, W. Kambwala and A. Lahdo. Parma: H. Nicolussi Caviglia, A. Bernabe, S. Britschgi and O. Diallo. In double chance terms, "Como or draw" stands at 95%, "Parma or draw" at 19% and "no draw" at 86%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Como – Parma. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 65% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Como 3-0 Parma | 16.9% |
| Como 2-0 Parma | 16.9% |
| Como 4-0 Parma | 12.7% |
| Como 1-0 Parma | 11.2% |
| Como 5-0 Parma | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.29 goals in total (3.01 for Como, 0.28 for Parma): over 2.5 goals has a 64% probability and both teams to score 23%. Everything points to an open game. Como keep a clean sheet in 76% of scenarios, Parma in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Como expected goals | 3.01 |
| Parma expected goals | 0.28 |
| Both teams to score | 23% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% |
| Como clean sheet | 76% |
| Parma clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Como
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Genoa · Serie A | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Liverpool · Club Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Parma
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Monza · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Cremonese · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Catania · Coppa Italia | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| Parma | 16 | 1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Como 1-0 Parma | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Parma 0-0 Como | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Como
- J. Addai (out)
- M. Caqueret (out)
- E. Goldaniga (out)
- W. Kambwala (out)
- A. Lahdo (out)
Parma
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia (out)
- A. Bernabe (out)
- S. Britschgi (out)
- O. Diallo (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Venezia 2-4 FiorentinaSep 11, 2026
- Genoa 1-1 FrosinoneSep 12, 2026
- Lazio 2-2 AC MilanSep 12, 2026
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSep 12, 2026
- Lecce 3-2 MonzaSep 13, 2026
- Napoli 1-0 BolognaSep 13, 2026
- Sassuolo 3-2 JuventusSep 13, 2026
- Torino 0-2 AS RomaSep 14, 2026
- Inter 5-3 UdineseSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Como vs Parma prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Como a 81% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Parma 5%. Como are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Como vs Parma?
3-0 (16.9%), followed by 2-0 (16.9%), 4-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.2%) and 5-0 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?
The probability that both Como and Parma score is 23%. Como have a 76% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Parma 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Como vs Parma?
The model expects 3.29 goals (3.01 for Como, 0.28 for Parma). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 84%, over 2.5 goals 64%, over 3.5 goals 42%.
When and where is Como vs Parma played?
Monday, September 14, 2026 at 17:30 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como.
What form are Como and Parma in?
Como: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 4 conceded). Parma: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Como, 0 for Parma and 1 draw. The most recent ended Como 1-0 Parma (May 17, 2026).
What was the Como vs Parma result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Como 2-1 Parma. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Como was the model's favourite outcome (81%). The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (4.7%), behind 3-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (23%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (64%): correct.
How is the Como vs Parma prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.01 for Como, 0.28 for Parma) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.