Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Lazio vs AC Milan: 2-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lazio (44%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
Match analysis
Lazio vs AC Milan was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 4). Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Before kick-off, our model gave Lazio a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AC Milan 31%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.6%), ahead of 2-1 (9.1%) and 1-0 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lazio have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, AC Milan have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Lazio score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; AC Milan score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Lazio sit 3rd with 9 points from 3 games, AC Milan 5th with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lazio have averaged 1.36 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.49 for AC Milan.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lazio, 1 for AC Milan and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lazio 1-0 AC Milan (Mar 15, 2026). Lazio out or doubtful: D. Cataldi, F. Dele-Bashiru, A. Furlanetto, A. Marusic and Patric. AC Milan: M. Gabbia. In double chance terms, "Lazio or draw" stands at 69%, "AC Milan or draw" at 56% and "no draw" at 75%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lazio – AC Milan. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lazio 1-1 AC Milan | 11.6% |
| Lazio 2-1 AC Milan | 9.1% |
| Lazio 1-0 AC Milan | 9.0% |
| Lazio 1-2 AC Milan | 7.5% |
| Lazio 0-1 AC Milan | 7.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.86 goals in total (1.57 for Lazio, 1.29 for AC Milan): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 57%. Lazio keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, AC Milan in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lazio expected goals | 1.57 |
| AC Milan expected goals | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Lazio clean sheet | 28% |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lazio
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Genoa · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Bologna · Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone · Club Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
AC Milan
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino · Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United · Club Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea · Club Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| AC Milan | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Lazio 1-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Lazio 1-0 AC Milan | Coppa Italia |
| Nov 29, 2025 | AC Milan 1-0 Lazio | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Lazio
- D. Cataldi (out)
- F. Dele-Bashiru (out)
- A. Furlanetto (out)
- A. Marusic (out)
- Patric (out)
AC Milan
- M. Gabbia (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Venezia 2-4 FiorentinaSep 11, 2026
- Genoa 1-1 FrosinoneSep 12, 2026
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSep 12, 2026
- Lecce 3-2 MonzaSep 13, 2026
- Napoli 1-0 BolognaSep 13, 2026
- Sassuolo 3-2 JuventusSep 13, 2026
- Torino 0-2 AS RomaSep 14, 2026
- Como 2-1 ParmaSep 14, 2026
- Inter 5-3 UdineseSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lazio vs AC Milan prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lazio a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and AC Milan 31%. Lazio are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Lazio vs AC Milan?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%) and 0-1 (7.4%).
Will both teams score in Lazio vs AC Milan?
The probability that both Lazio and AC Milan score is 57%. Lazio have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, AC Milan 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Lazio vs AC Milan?
The model expects 2.86 goals (1.57 for Lazio, 1.29 for AC Milan). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Lazio vs AC Milan played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome.
What form are Lazio and AC Milan in?
Lazio: 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). AC Milan: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and AC Milan?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lazio, 1 for AC Milan and 0 draws. The most recent ended Lazio 1-0 AC Milan (Mar 15, 2026).
What was the Lazio vs AC Milan result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lazio 2-2 AC Milan. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Lazio (44%), while a draw was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (5.9%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
How is the Lazio vs AC Milan prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.57 for Lazio, 1.29 for AC Milan) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.