Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Lecce vs Monza: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lecce 3-2 Monza. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lecce at 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
Match analysis
Lecce and Monza met on Sunday, September 13, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Via del Mare, Lecce. Before kick-off, our model gave Lecce a 34% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Monza 34%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (9.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, Lecce have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Monza have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Lecce score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Monza score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Lecce sit 14th with 3 points from 3 games, Monza 18th with 1 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Lecce have averaged 1.31 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.55 for Monza.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lecce, 0 for Monza and 3 draws. Lecce out or doubtful: M. Berisha and W. Geubbels. Monza: M. Pessina, I. Toure, J. Ziolkowski, P. Ciurria and C. Ngonge. In double chance terms, "Lecce or draw" stands at 66%, "Monza or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 69%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lecce – Monza. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lecce 1-1 Monza | 11.3% |
| Lecce 2-1 Monza | 9.4% |
| Lecce 1-0 Monza | 9.2% |
| Lecce 2-0 Monza | 7.7% |
| Lecce 1-2 Monza | 7.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.66 expected goals for Lecce and 1.23 for Monza, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 55% and "both teams to score" at 57%. Lecce keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, Monza in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lecce expected goals | 1.66 |
| Monza expected goals | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% |
| Lecce clean sheet | 29% |
| Monza clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Lecce
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | Cagliari · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 31, 2026 | AS Roma · Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Palermo · Coppa Italia | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SS Monopoli · Club Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Monza
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma · Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Torino · Coppa Italia | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Udinese · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino · Coppa Italia | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 14 | 3 | 3 |
| Monza | 18 | 1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lecce, 0 for Monza and 3 draws.
Out and doubtful
Lecce
- M. Berisha (out)
- W. Geubbels (out)
Monza
- M. Pessina (out)
- I. Toure (out)
- J. Ziolkowski (out)
- P. Ciurria (out)
- C. Ngonge (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Venezia 2-4 FiorentinaSep 11, 2026
- Genoa 1-1 FrosinoneSep 12, 2026
- Lazio 2-2 AC MilanSep 12, 2026
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSep 12, 2026
- Napoli 1-0 BolognaSep 13, 2026
- Sassuolo 3-2 JuventusSep 13, 2026
- Torino 0-2 AS RomaSep 14, 2026
- Como 2-1 ParmaSep 14, 2026
- Inter 5-3 UdineseSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lecce vs Monza prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lecce a 34% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Monza 34%. Lecce are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Lecce vs Monza?
1-1 (11.3%), followed by 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.7%) and 1-2 (7.0%).
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Monza?
The probability that both Lecce and Monza score is 57%. Lecce have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Monza 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Lecce vs Monza?
The model expects 2.89 goals (1.66 for Lecce, 1.23 for Monza). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 33%.
When and where is Lecce vs Monza played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: Via del Mare, Lecce.
What form are Lecce and Monza in?
Lecce: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Monza: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Monza?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Lecce, 0 for Monza and 3 draws.
What was the Lecce vs Monza result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lecce 3-2 Monza. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Lecce at 34%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.2%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (57%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): correct.
How is the Lecce vs Monza prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Lecce, 1.23 for Monza) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.