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Serie ASerie A· Kick-off : Friday, September 11, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Venezia vs Fiorentina: 2-4 result and AI prediction review

VeneziaVenezia2 – 4FiorentinaFiorentina

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome correctExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 1-1

Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Fiorentina at 41%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.

Match analysis

Venezia and Fiorentina met on Friday, September 11, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice. Before kick-off, our model gave Venezia a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fiorentina 41%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (12.4%) and 1-0 (10.4%).

Venezia have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Fiorentina have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Venezia score 1.20 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Fiorentina score 1.20 and concede 2.20. In the table, Venezia sit 18th with 0 points from 3 games, Fiorentina 20th with 0 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Venezia have averaged 1.67 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.38 for Fiorentina.

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Venezia, 1 for Fiorentina and 1 draw. Venezia out or doubtful: A. Adorante, T. Basic, B. Franjic, M. Sverko and A. Bella-Kotchap. Fiorentina: F. Parisi and R. Sottil. In double chance terms, "Venezia or draw" stands at 59%, "Fiorentina or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 72%.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

31%
Venezia (Win)
28%
Draw
41%
Fiorentina (Win)

Double chance

59%
Venezia or draw
69%
Fiorentina or draw
72%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Venezia – Fiorentina. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Venezia 1-1 Fiorentina13.1%
Venezia 0-1 Fiorentina12.4%
Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina10.4%
Venezia 0-0 Fiorentina9.8%
Venezia 1-2 Fiorentina8.3%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 1.06 expected goals for Venezia and 1.26 for Fiorentina, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 41% and "both teams to score" at 47%. Few goals are expected here. Venezia keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Fiorentina in 35%.

Probability
Venezia expected goals1.06
Fiorentina expected goals1.26
Both teams to score47%
Over 1.5 goals67%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Venezia clean sheet28%
Fiorentina clean sheet35%

Recent form

Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.

Venezia

DateOpponentScore
Sep 6, 2026Frosinone · Serie A2-3L
Sep 2, 2026Udinese · Coppa Italia1-2L
Aug 28, 2026AC Milan · Serie A0-2L
Aug 23, 2026Lecce · Serie A0-2L
Aug 15, 2026Modena · Coppa Italia3-2W

Fiorentina

DateOpponentScore
Sep 5, 2026Torino · Serie A1-2L
Aug 29, 2026Frosinone · Serie A0-3L
Aug 24, 2026AS Roma · Serie A0-4L
Aug 14, 2026Benevento · Coppa Italia4-1W
Aug 6, 2026Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies1-1D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Venezia1803
Fiorentina2003

Head-to-head

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Venezia, 1 for Fiorentina and 1 draw.

Out and doubtful

Venezia

  • A. Adorante (out)
  • T. Basic (out)
  • B. Franjic (out)
  • M. Sverko (out)
  • A. Bella-Kotchap (out)

Fiorentina

  • F. Parisi (out)
  • R. Sottil (out)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Venezia a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fiorentina 41%. Fiorentina are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-4.

What is the most likely correct score for Venezia vs Fiorentina?

1-1 (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%) and 1-2 (8.3%).

Will both teams score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?

The probability that both Venezia and Fiorentina score is 47%. Venezia have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Fiorentina 35%.

How many goals should we expect in Venezia vs Fiorentina?

The model expects 2.32 goals (1.06 for Venezia, 1.26 for Fiorentina). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 21%.

When and where is Venezia vs Fiorentina played?

Friday, September 11, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice.

What form are Venezia and Fiorentina in?

Venezia: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded). Fiorentina: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 11 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina?

In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Venezia, 1 for Fiorentina and 1 draw.

What was the Venezia vs Fiorentina result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Fiorentina at 41%. The model considered this score unlikely (0.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (47%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.

How is the Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.06 for Venezia, 1.26 for Fiorentina) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained