Serie A· Kick-off : Saturday, September 12, 2026, 14:00 (UK time)
Genoa vs Frosinone: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Frosinone (71%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
Match analysis
Genoa vs Frosinone was played on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Serie A, matchday 4). Venue: Luigi Ferraris, Genova. Before kick-off, our model gave Genoa a 8% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Frosinone 71%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (20.3%), ahead of 0-2 (17.9%) and 0-0 (11.5%).
Genoa have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Frosinone have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Frosinone. On average Genoa score 1.00 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Frosinone score 2.20 and concede 1.00. In the table, Genoa sit 19th with 0 points from 3 games, Frosinone 7th with 6 points from 3. 12 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Genoa have averaged 0.62 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.14 for Frosinone.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Genoa, 2 for Frosinone and 2 draws. Genoa out or doubtful: E. Havel and L. Venturino. In double chance terms, "Genoa or draw" stands at 29%, "Frosinone or draw" at 92% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Genoa – Frosinone. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (20.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 68% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Genoa 0-1 Frosinone | 20.3% |
| Genoa 0-2 Frosinone | 17.9% |
| Genoa 0-0 Frosinone | 11.5% |
| Genoa 0-3 Frosinone | 10.5% |
| Genoa 1-1 Frosinone | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.16 goals in total (0.40 for Genoa, 1.76 for Frosinone): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 27%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Genoa keep a clean sheet in 17% of scenarios, Frosinone in 67%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Genoa expected goals | 0.40 |
| Frosinone expected goals | 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 27% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Genoa clean sheet | 17% |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 67% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-4 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Napoli · Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli · Coppa Italia | 4-1 | W |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Frosinone
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Venezia · Serie A | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Sassuolo · Coppa Italia | 1-1 | D |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fiorentina · Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Juventus · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juve Stabia · Coppa Italia | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 19 | 0 | 3 |
| Frosinone | 7 | 6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Genoa, 2 for Frosinone and 2 draws.
Out and doubtful
Genoa
- E. Havel (out)
- L. Venturino (out)
Frosinone
No absences reported.
Other matches in this competition
- Venezia 2-4 FiorentinaSep 11, 2026
- Lazio 2-2 AC MilanSep 12, 2026
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSep 12, 2026
- Lecce 3-2 MonzaSep 13, 2026
- Napoli 1-0 BolognaSep 13, 2026
- Sassuolo 3-2 JuventusSep 13, 2026
- Torino 0-2 AS RomaSep 14, 2026
- Como 2-1 ParmaSep 14, 2026
- Inter 5-3 UdineseSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Genoa vs Frosinone prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Genoa a 8% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Frosinone 71%. Frosinone are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Genoa vs Frosinone?
0-1 (20.3%), followed by 0-2 (17.9%), 0-0 (11.5%), 0-3 (10.5%) and 1-1 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Frosinone?
The probability that both Genoa and Frosinone score is 27%. Genoa have a 17% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Frosinone 67%.
How many goals should we expect in Genoa vs Frosinone?
The model expects 2.16 goals (0.40 for Genoa, 1.76 for Frosinone). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Genoa vs Frosinone played?
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 14:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: Luigi Ferraris, Genova.
What form are Genoa and Frosinone in?
Genoa: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 9 conceded). Frosinone: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Frosinone?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Genoa, 2 for Frosinone and 2 draws.
What was the Genoa vs Frosinone result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Frosinone (71%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (27%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
How is the Genoa vs Frosinone prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.40 for Genoa, 1.76 for Frosinone) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.