Serie A· Kick-off : Sunday, September 13, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Napoli vs Bologna: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Napoli at 58%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.2%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
Match analysis
Napoli and Bologna met on Sunday, September 13, 2026, a Serie A, matchday 4 fixture. Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples. Before kick-off, our model gave Napoli a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bologna 21%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (9.8%), followed by 1-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Napoli have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Bologna have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 9. Napoli therefore arrive in far better shape than Bologna. On average Napoli score 2.20 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Bologna score 0.60 and concede 1.80. In the table, Napoli sit 12th with 3 points from 3 games, Bologna 16th with 1 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Napoli have averaged 1.53 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.57 for Bologna.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Napoli, 2 for Bologna and 0 draws. The most recent ended Napoli 2-3 Bologna (May 11, 2026). Napoli out or doubtful: Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa, A. Buongiorno, Giovane and L. Marianucci. Bologna: A. Dovbyk, O. El Azzouzi, R. Orsolini and N. Zortea. In double chance terms, "Napoli or draw" stands at 79%, "Bologna or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 79%.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Napoli – Bologna. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (9.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 43% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Napoli 2-1 Bologna | 9.8% |
| Napoli 1-1 Bologna | 9.5% |
| Napoli 2-0 Bologna | 8.5% |
| Napoli 1-0 Bologna | 8.2% |
| Napoli 3-1 Bologna | 6.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.06 expected goals for Napoli and 1.16 for Bologna, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 62% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Napoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Bologna in 13%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Napoli expected goals | 2.06 |
| Bologna expected goals | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 31% |
| Bologna clean sheet | 13% |
Recent form
Latest matches played before this game in the competitions Elofoot covers.
Napoli
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal · UEFA Champions League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Inter · Serie A | 2-3 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Como · Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Genoa · Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis · Club Friendlies | 6-2 | W |
Bologna
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sassuolo · Serie A | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Atalanta · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Lazio · Serie A | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Brighton · Club Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pisa · Club Friendlies | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 12 | 3 | 3 |
| Bologna | 16 | 1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Napoli 2-3 Bologna | Serie A |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Napoli 2-0 Bologna | Italian Super Cup |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Bologna 2-0 Napoli | Serie A |
Out and doubtful
Napoli
- Alisson Santos (out)
- F. Anguissa (out)
- A. Buongiorno (out)
- Giovane (out)
- L. Marianucci (out)
Bologna
- A. Dovbyk (out)
- O. El Azzouzi (out)
- R. Orsolini (out)
- N. Zortea (out)
Other matches in this competition
- Venezia 2-4 FiorentinaSep 11, 2026
- Genoa 1-1 FrosinoneSep 12, 2026
- Lazio 2-2 AC MilanSep 12, 2026
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSep 12, 2026
- Lecce 3-2 MonzaSep 13, 2026
- Sassuolo 3-2 JuventusSep 13, 2026
- Torino 0-2 AS RomaSep 14, 2026
- Como 2-1 ParmaSep 14, 2026
- Inter 5-3 UdineseSep 14, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Napoli vs Bologna prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Napoli a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bologna 21%. Napoli are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Napoli vs Bologna?
2-1 (9.8%), followed by 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.5%), 1-0 (8.2%) and 3-1 (6.8%).
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Bologna?
The probability that both Napoli and Bologna score is 60%. Napoli have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bologna 13%.
How many goals should we expect in Napoli vs Bologna?
The model expects 3.22 goals (2.06 for Napoli, 1.16 for Bologna). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 83%, over 2.5 goals 62%, over 3.5 goals 40%.
When and where is Napoli vs Bologna played?
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), Serie A, matchday 4. Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples.
What form are Napoli and Bologna in?
Napoli: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 8 conceded). Bologna: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 9 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Bologna?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Napoli, 2 for Bologna and 0 draws. The most recent ended Napoli 2-3 Bologna (May 11, 2026).
What was the Napoli vs Bologna result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Napoli 1-0 Bologna. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Napoli at 58%. The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.2%), behind 2-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (60%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (62%): missed.
How is the Napoli vs Bologna prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.06 for Napoli, 1.16 for Bologna) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.