Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
AVS vs Moreirense prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
AVS take on Moreirense on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), a Taça de Portugal fixture. The edge goes to AVS (53%), ahead of the draw (26%) and a Moreirense win (21%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.0%), ahead of 1-1 (12.1%) and 2-0 (10.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, AVS have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Moreirense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average AVS score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Moreirense score 1.20 and concede 1.60.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AVS, 2 for Moreirense and 2 draws. The most recent ended Moreirense 0-0 AVS (May 16, 2026). In double chance terms, "AVS or draw" stands at 79%, "Moreirense or draw" at 47% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs AVS to edge Moreirense (53% probability). On recent form, AVS have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Moreirense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 45%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as AVS – Moreirense. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| AVS 1-0 Moreirense | 14.0% |
| AVS 1-1 Moreirense | 12.1% |
| AVS 2-0 Moreirense | 10.7% |
| AVS 2-1 Moreirense | 9.2% |
| AVS 0-0 Moreirense | 9.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.39 goals in total (1.53 for AVS, 0.86 for Moreirense): over 2.5 goals has a 43% probability and both teams to score 45%. AVS keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Moreirense in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| AVS expected goals | 1.53 |
| Moreirense expected goals | 0.86 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| AVS clean sheet | 42% |
| Moreirense clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
AVS
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sintrense · Taça de Portugal | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Farense · Liga Portugal 2 | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa · Liga Portugal 2 | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Feirense · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chaves · Liga Portugal 2 | 2-2 | D |
Moreirense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vitória SC · Primeira Liga | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo · Primeira Liga | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica · Primeira Liga | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto · Primeira Liga | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Casa Pia · Primeira Liga | 1-0 | W |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Moreirense 0-0 AVS | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AVS 0-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | AVS 0-3 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Moreirense 1-1 AVS | Primeira Liga |
Out and doubtful
AVS
No absences reported.
Moreirense
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
AVS
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Keita4/4
- Andrey4/4
- D. Rebollo4/4
- F. Almeida4/4
- Mateus Pivo4/4
- Rodrigo Pinho4/4
- Roni4/4
- D. Rivas3/4
- G. Neiva3/4
- L. Rosic3/4
- Ponck3/4
Moreirense
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Kiko5/5
- N. John5/5
- A. Ferreira4/5
- D. Pinto4/5
- G. Batista4/5
- M. Mendonca4/5
- Maracas4/5
- A. Duville-Parsemain3/5
- Guilherme Liberato3/5
- Landerson3/5
- J. Veloso2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Fazendense – EstrelaOct 18, 2026
- Mafra – Santa ClaraOct 18, 2026
- Alpendorada – Casa PiaOct 18, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the AVS vs Moreirense prediction?
Our AI gives AVS a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Moreirense 21%. AVS are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for AVS vs Moreirense?
1-0 (14.0%), followed by 1-1 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.2%) and 0-0 (9.2%).
Will both teams score in AVS vs Moreirense?
The probability that both AVS and Moreirense score is 45%. AVS have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Moreirense 22%.
How many goals should we expect in AVS vs Moreirense?
The model expects 2.39 goals (1.53 for AVS, 0.86 for Moreirense). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is AVS vs Moreirense played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are AVS and Moreirense in?
AVS: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Moreirense: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Moreirense?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for AVS, 2 for Moreirense and 2 draws. The most recent ended Moreirense 0-0 AVS (May 16, 2026).
How is the AVS vs Moreirense prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.53 for AVS, 0.86 for Moreirense) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All AVS predictions
- All Moreirense predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology