Taça de Portugal· Kick-off : Sunday, October 18, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Fazendense vs Estrela prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Taça de Portugal: Fazendense vs Estrela kicks off on Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). With a 63% win probability, Estrela go in as strong favourites against Fazendense (18%), with the draw rated at 19%. The most likely correct score is 1-2 (9.5%), ahead of 1-1 (8.0%) and 0-2 (7.8%).
Fazendense have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Estrela have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Recent momentum is clearly with Estrela. On average Fazendense score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Estrela score 2.00 and concede 2.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Fazendense and Estrela: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Fazendense or draw" stands at 37%, "Estrela or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Estrela are favourites for this Fazendense v Estrela, with a 63% win probability from our model. On recent form, Fazendense have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Estrela have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Fazendense – Estrela. 1-2 is the single most likely scoreline (9.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fazendense 1-2 Estrela | 9.5% |
| Fazendense 1-1 Estrela | 8.0% |
| Fazendense 0-2 Estrela | 7.8% |
| Fazendense 1-3 Estrela | 7.5% |
| Fazendense 0-1 Estrela | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.59 goals in total (1.22 for Fazendense, 2.37 for Estrela): over 2.5 goals has a 70% probability and both teams to score 64%. Everything points to an open game. Fazendense keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, Estrela in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Fazendense expected goals | 1.22 |
| Estrela expected goals | 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% |
| Fazendense clean sheet | 9% |
| Estrela clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Fazendense
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | O Elvas · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mortágua · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 1-2 | L |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Mocarriense · Taça de Portugal | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 23, 2026 | AD Nogueirense · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Mirandela · Taça de Portugal | 1-2 | L |
Estrela
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu · Primeira Liga | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave · Primeira Liga | 3-3 | D |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga · Primeira Liga | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao · Primeira Liga | 2-2 | D |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nacional · Primeira Liga | 3-2 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Fazendense and Estrela: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Fazendense
No absences reported.
Estrela
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estrela
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Marcus5/5
- I. Stoica5/5
- L. Antonetti5/5
- L. Zvonarek5/5
- M. Scholze5/5
- Rafa Soares5/5
- G. Doue4/5
- Leo Linck4/5
- Luan Patrick4/5
- S. Lekovic4/5
- S. Serra2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Fazendense vs Estrela prediction?
Our AI gives Fazendense a 18% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Estrela 63%. Estrela are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Fazendense vs Estrela?
1-2 (9.5%), followed by 1-1 (8.0%), 0-2 (7.8%), 1-3 (7.5%) and 0-1 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Fazendense vs Estrela?
The probability that both Fazendense and Estrela score is 64%. Fazendense have a 9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Estrela 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Fazendense vs Estrela?
The model expects 3.59 goals (1.22 for Fazendense, 2.37 for Estrela). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 87%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 48%.
When and where is Fazendense vs Estrela played?
Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Taça de Portugal.
What form are Fazendense and Estrela in?
Fazendense: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Estrela: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 10 conceded).
How is the Fazendense vs Estrela prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.22 for Fazendense, 2.37 for Estrela) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Fazendense predictions
- All Estrela predictions
- Taça de Portugal predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology