Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Blackburn vs Cardiff: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cardiff (40%), while victory for Blackburn was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Blackburn vs Cardiff was played on Saturday, October 10, 2026 (Championship, matchday 9). Venue: Ewood Park, Blackburn. Before kick-off, our model gave Blackburn a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cardiff 40%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.4%), ahead of 0-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.1%).
Blackburn have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 7. Cardiff have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Blackburn score 1.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Cardiff score 1.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Blackburn sit 16th with 9 points from 8 games, Cardiff 21st with 7 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Blackburn have averaged 0.98 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.76 for Cardiff.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Blackburn, 1 for Cardiff and 1 draw. The most recent ended Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff (Mar 15, 2025). Blackburn out or doubtful: A. Forshaw, M. Jorgensen, M. Litherland, L. Miller, Y. Ohashi, Y. Ribeiro, A. Kargbo (doubtful) and S. Wharton (doubtful). Cardiff: K. Bielik (suspended), C. Chambers, R. Colwill, I. Davies (doubtful) and W. Fish (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Blackburn or draw" stands at 60%, "Cardiff or draw" at 66% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Blackburn host Cardiff in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (26%). On recent form, Blackburn have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Cardiff have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Blackburn – Cardiff. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Blackburn 1-1 Cardiff | 12.4% |
| Blackburn 0-1 Cardiff | 9.9% |
| Blackburn 1-0 Cardiff | 9.1% |
| Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff | 8.5% |
| Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff | 7.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.63 goals in total (1.26 for Blackburn, 1.37 for Cardiff): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 53%. Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 25% of scenarios, Cardiff in 28%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Blackburn expected goals | 1.26 |
| Cardiff expected goals | 1.37 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Blackburn clean sheet | 25% |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 28% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Blackburn
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 0-0 | D |
Cardiff
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 16 | 9 | 8 |
| Cardiff | 21 | 7 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff | Championship |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Cardiff 1-3 Blackburn | Championship |
| Feb 20, 2024 | Cardiff 0-0 Blackburn | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Blackburn 1-0 Cardiff | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Blackburn 5-2 Cardiff | EFL Cup |
Out and doubtful
Blackburn
- A. Forshaw (out)
- M. Jorgensen (out)
- M. Litherland (out)
- L. Miller (out)
- Y. Ohashi (out)
- Y. Ribeiro (out)
- A. Kargbo (doubtful)
- S. Wharton (doubtful)
Cardiff
- K. Bielik (suspended)
- C. Chambers (out)
- R. Colwill (out)
- I. Davies (doubtful)
- W. Fish (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Blackburn
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Montgomery5/5
- O. Afolayan5/5
- R. Alebiosu5/5
- R. Morishita5/5
- S. McLoughlin5/5
- S. Morsy5/5
- T. Cantwell5/5
- T. Atcheson4/5
- Y. Ribeiro4/5
- A. Pears3/5
- A. Gudjohnsen2/5
Cardiff
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Robertson5/5
- G. Osho5/5
- J. Bagan5/5
- J. Moylan5/5
- N. Trott5/5
- O. Tanner5/5
- P. Ng5/5
- Y. Salech5/5
- C. Willock4/5
- K. Bielik4/5
- J. Colwill3/5
Other matches in this competition
- West Ham 1-1 QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea 2-1 NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom 0-1 BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton 1-1 Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston 0-1 MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd 3-0 LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby 1-1 WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough 1-0 WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Bolton 1-2 Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
- Watford 0-4 BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Blackburn vs Cardiff prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Blackburn a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cardiff 40%. Cardiff are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Blackburn vs Cardiff?
1-1 (12.4%), followed by 0-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.8%).
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Cardiff?
The probability that both Blackburn and Cardiff score is 53%. Blackburn have a 25% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Cardiff 28%.
How many goals should we expect in Blackburn vs Cardiff?
The model expects 2.63 goals (1.26 for Blackburn, 1.37 for Cardiff). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Blackburn vs Cardiff played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Ewood Park, Blackburn.
What form are Blackburn and Cardiff in?
Blackburn: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded). Cardiff: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Cardiff?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Blackburn, 1 for Cardiff and 1 draw. The most recent ended Blackburn 1-2 Cardiff (Mar 15, 2025).
What was the Blackburn vs Cardiff result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Cardiff (40%), while victory for Blackburn was rated at only 34%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.8%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Blackburn vs Cardiff prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.26 for Blackburn, 1.37 for Cardiff) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Blackburn predictions
- All Cardiff predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology