Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Charlton vs Bristol City: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Charlton 1-1 Bristol City. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bristol City (41%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.3%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.
Match analysis
Charlton and Bristol City met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Championship, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: The Valley, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Charlton a 29% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Bristol City 41%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (14.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%) and 0-0 (11.8%).
Charlton have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Bristol City have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 6. Bristol City therefore arrive in far better shape than Charlton. On average Charlton score 0.40 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Bristol City score 1.20 and concede 1.20. In the table, Charlton sit 9th with 12 points from 8 games, Bristol City 8th with 13 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Charlton have averaged 0.54 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.29 for Bristol City.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Charlton, 3 for Bristol City and 1 draw. The most recent ended Charlton 1-2 Bristol City (Apr 3, 2026). Charlton out or doubtful: C. Sichenje, N. Chalobah (doubtful), M. Godden (doubtful), B. Koumetio (doubtful), W. Mannion (doubtful) and K. Ramsay (doubtful). Bristol City: R. Dickie, N. Eile (doubtful) and L. Tolaj (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Charlton or draw" stands at 59%, "Bristol City or draw" at 71% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Bristol City are favourites for this Charlton v Bristol City, with a 41% win probability from our model. On recent form, Charlton have 0 win, 3 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Bristol City have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. One to watch: Charlton will be without C. Sichenje and N. Chalobah.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Charlton – Bristol City. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Charlton 0-1 Bristol City | 14.0% |
| Charlton 1-1 Bristol City | 13.3% |
| Charlton 0-0 Bristol City | 11.8% |
| Charlton 1-0 Bristol City | 11.2% |
| Charlton 0-2 Bristol City | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.95 expected goals for Charlton and 1.19 for Bristol City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 36% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Charlton keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Bristol City in 39%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Charlton expected goals | 0.95 |
| Bristol City expected goals | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% |
| Charlton clean sheet | 30% |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 39% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Charlton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Bristol City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 9 | 12 | 8 |
| Bristol City | 8 | 13 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Charlton 1-2 Bristol City | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Bristol City 0-0 Charlton | Championship |
| Dec 26, 2019 | Charlton 3-2 Bristol City | Championship |
| Oct 23, 2019 | Bristol City 2-1 Charlton | Championship |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Charlton 0-1 Bristol City | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Charlton
- C. Sichenje (out)
- N. Chalobah (doubtful)
- M. Godden (doubtful)
- B. Koumetio (doubtful)
- W. Mannion (doubtful)
- K. Ramsay (doubtful)
Bristol City
- R. Dickie (out)
- N. Eile (doubtful)
- L. Tolaj (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Charlton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Okonkwo5/5
- K. Grant5/5
- L. Jones5/5
- M. Leaburn5/5
- T. Bindon5/5
- T. Campbell5/5
- C. Coventry4/5
- I. Mesik4/5
- O. Skipp4/5
- A. Bell3/5
- D. McNamara3/5
Bristol City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Tickle5/5
- J. Knight4/5
- J. Williams4/5
- R. Cardines4/5
- S. Twine4/5
- Y. Hirakawa4/5
- C. Pring3/5
- D. Ballard3/5
- G. Tanner3/5
- J. Wallace3/5
- L. Eissat3/5
Other matches in this competition
- West Ham 1-1 QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea 2-1 NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom 0-1 BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Preston 0-1 MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd 3-0 LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby 1-1 WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough 1-0 WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton 1-2 Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
- Watford 0-4 BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Charlton vs Bristol City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Charlton a 29% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Bristol City 41%. Bristol City are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Charlton vs Bristol City?
0-1 (14.0%), followed by 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%) and 0-2 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bristol City?
The probability that both Charlton and Bristol City score is 43%. Charlton have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bristol City 39%.
How many goals should we expect in Charlton vs Bristol City?
The model expects 2.14 goals (0.95 for Charlton, 1.19 for Bristol City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 63%, over 2.5 goals 36%, over 3.5 goals 17%.
When and where is Charlton vs Bristol City played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: The Valley, London.
What form are Charlton and Bristol City in?
Charlton: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 8 conceded). Bristol City: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol City?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Charlton, 3 for Bristol City and 1 draw. The most recent ended Charlton 1-2 Bristol City (Apr 3, 2026).
What was the Charlton vs Bristol City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Charlton 1-1 Bristol City. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Bristol City (41%), while a draw was rated at only 29%. The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (13.3%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (36%): correct.
How is the Charlton vs Bristol City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.95 for Charlton, 1.19 for Bristol City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Charlton predictions
- All Bristol City predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology