Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Bolton vs Stoke City: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bolton 1-2 Stoke City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Stoke City at 37%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.
Match analysis
Bolton and Stoke City met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Championship, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Before kick-off, our model gave Bolton a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Stoke City 37%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.3%), followed by 0-1 (12.0%) and 1-0 (11.6%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bolton have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Stoke City therefore arrive in far better shape than Bolton. On average Bolton score 1.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Stoke City score 2.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Bolton sit 15th with 10 points from 8 games, Stoke City 7th with 13 points from 8. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bolton have averaged 1.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.04 for Stoke City.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bolton, 2 for Stoke City and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bolton 0-1 Stoke City (Jul 30, 2024). Bolton out or doubtful: C. Forino-Joseph and L. Brunt (doubtful). Stoke City: A. Cresswell, S. Ingelsson and J. McGlynn (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bolton or draw" stands at 63%, "Stoke City or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 71%.
In short : Bolton and Stoke City meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 29%). On recent form, Bolton have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Stoke City are in good shape (4 wins in 5). One to watch: Stoke City will be without A. Cresswell and S. Ingelsson.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bolton – Stoke City. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bolton 1-1 Stoke City | 13.3% |
| Bolton 0-1 Stoke City | 12.0% |
| Bolton 1-0 Stoke City | 11.6% |
| Bolton 0-0 Stoke City | 10.4% |
| Bolton 1-2 Stoke City | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.11 expected goals for Bolton and 1.15 for Stoke City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Bolton keep a clean sheet in 32% of scenarios, Stoke City in 33%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bolton expected goals | 1.11 |
| Stoke City expected goals | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Bolton clean sheet | 32% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 33% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bolton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 2-3 | L |
Stoke City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 15 | 10 | 8 |
| Stoke City | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2024 | Bolton 0-1 Stoke City | Club Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2018 | Bolton 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Oct 2, 2018 | Stoke City 2-0 Bolton | Championship |
| May 13, 2012 | Stoke City 2-2 Bolton | Premier League |
| Nov 6, 2011 | Bolton 5-0 Stoke City | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Bolton
- C. Forino-Joseph (out)
- L. Brunt (doubtful)
Stoke City
- A. Cresswell (out)
- S. Ingelsson (out)
- J. McGlynn (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Bolton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Sheehan5/5
- S. Dalby5/5
- B. Davies4/5
- S. Iling Junior4/5
- C. Forino-Joseph3/5
- E. Erhahon3/5
- E. Toal3/5
- G. Bazunu3/5
- G. Larrazabal3/5
- K. Dong3/5
- M. Conway3/5
Stoke City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Johnson5/5
- B. Wilmot5/5
- D. Soumare5/5
- E. Galbraith5/5
- L. Graham5/5
- V. Johansson5/5
- E. Bocat4/5
- J. Devenny4/5
- G. Hirst3/5
- M. Talovierov3/5
- B. Lawal2/5
Other matches in this competition
- West Ham 1-1 QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea 2-1 NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom 0-1 BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton 1-1 Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston 0-1 MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd 3-0 LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby 1-1 WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough 1-0 WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Watford 0-4 BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bolton vs Stoke City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bolton a 35% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Stoke City 37%. Stoke City are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Bolton vs Stoke City?
1-1 (13.3%), followed by 0-1 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.4%) and 1-2 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Stoke City?
The probability that both Bolton and Stoke City score is 46%. Bolton have a 32% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stoke City 33%.
How many goals should we expect in Bolton vs Stoke City?
The model expects 2.26 goals (1.11 for Bolton, 1.15 for Stoke City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Bolton vs Stoke City played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich.
What form are Bolton and Stoke City in?
Bolton: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded). Stoke City: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stoke City?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Bolton, 2 for Stoke City and 2 draws. The most recent ended Bolton 0-1 Stoke City (Jul 30, 2024).
What was the Bolton vs Stoke City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bolton 1-2 Stoke City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Stoke City at 37%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.7%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.
How is the Bolton vs Stoke City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.11 for Bolton, 1.15 for Stoke City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bolton predictions
- All Stoke City predictions
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- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology