Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Bolton vs Stoke City prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Championship, matchday 9: Bolton vs Stoke City kicks off on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton. Bolton start as favourites with a 46% chance of victory; Stoke City are given 28% and the draw 26%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.9%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bolton have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Over their last 5 matches, Stoke City have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Stoke City therefore arrive in far better shape than Bolton. On average Bolton score 1.80 and concede 2.60 goals per game; Stoke City score 1.80 and concede 1.20. In the table, Bolton sit 15th with 10 points from 8 games, Stoke City 7th with 13 points from 8. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Bolton have averaged 1.52 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.99 for Stoke City.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bolton and Stoke City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Bolton out or doubtful: L. Brunt, C. Forino-Joseph and L. Stephenson. Stoke City: A. Cresswell, S. Ingelsson and B. Lawal. In double chance terms, "Bolton or draw" stands at 72%, "Stoke City or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Bolton are favourites for this Bolton v Stoke City, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Bolton have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Stoke City have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Bolton will be without L. Brunt and C. Forino-Joseph.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bolton – Stoke City. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bolton 1-1 Stoke City | 12.5% |
| Bolton 1-0 Stoke City | 11.9% |
| Bolton 2-1 Stoke City | 9.0% |
| Bolton 0-1 Stoke City | 8.7% |
| Bolton 2-0 Stoke City | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.44 expected goals for Bolton and 1.05 for Stoke City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 45% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Bolton keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Stoke City in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bolton expected goals | 1.44 |
| Stoke City expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% |
| Bolton clean sheet | 35% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bolton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 4-3 | W |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 2-3 | L |
Stoke City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 1-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 15 | 10 | 8 |
| Stoke City | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bolton and Stoke City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Bolton
- L. Brunt (out)
- C. Forino-Joseph (out)
- L. Stephenson (out)
Stoke City
- A. Cresswell (out)
- S. Ingelsson (out)
- B. Lawal (out)
Most regular starters
Bolton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Sheehan5/5
- S. Dalby5/5
- B. Davies4/5
- S. Iling Junior4/5
- C. Forino-Joseph3/5
- E. Erhahon3/5
- E. Toal3/5
- G. Bazunu3/5
- G. Larrazabal3/5
- K. Dong3/5
- M. Conway3/5
Stoke City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Johnson5/5
- B. Wilmot5/5
- D. Soumare5/5
- E. Galbraith5/5
- V. Johansson5/5
- E. Bocat4/5
- G. Hirst4/5
- L. Graham4/5
- B. Lawal3/5
- J. Devenny3/5
- Bae Jun-Ho2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- West Ham – QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea – NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom – BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton – Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston – MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd – LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby – WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough – WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn – CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Watford – BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bolton vs Stoke City prediction?
Our AI gives Bolton a 46% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Stoke City 28%. Bolton are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bolton vs Stoke City?
1-1 (12.5%), followed by 1-0 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Stoke City?
The probability that both Bolton and Stoke City score is 50%. Bolton have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Stoke City 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Bolton vs Stoke City?
The model expects 2.49 goals (1.44 for Bolton, 1.05 for Stoke City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 71%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 24%.
When and where is Bolton vs Stoke City played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton.
What form are Bolton and Stoke City in?
Bolton: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded). Stoke City: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
How is the Bolton vs Stoke City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.44 for Bolton, 1.05 for Stoke City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bolton predictions
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