Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Derby vs Wrexham: 1-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Derby 1-1 Wrexham. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Wrexham (40%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
Match analysis
Derby and Wrexham met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Championship, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby. Before kick-off, our model gave Derby a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Wrexham 40%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (13.2%), followed by 0-1 (12.6%) and 1-0 (10.7%).
Derby have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Wrexham have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Wrexham therefore arrive in far better shape than Derby. On average Derby score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Wrexham score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Derby sit 22nd with 5 points from 8 games, Wrexham 14th with 10 points from 8. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Derby have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.98 for Wrexham.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Wrexham and 1 draw. The most recent ended Derby 1-2 Wrexham (Jan 4, 2026). Derby out or doubtful: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, D. Murkin, C. Taylor, J. Widell Zetterstrom, F. Bilbija (doubtful) and H. Meister (doubtful). Wrexham: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, G. Thomason, O. Rathbone (doubtful) and S. Revan (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Derby or draw" stands at 60%, "Wrexham or draw" at 69% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Wrexham are tipped by our AI model in this Derby v Wrexham (40%). In the table, Derby (22nd, 5 pts) host Wrexham (14th, 10 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Derby – Wrexham. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Derby 1-1 Wrexham | 13.2% |
| Derby 0-1 Wrexham | 12.6% |
| Derby 1-0 Wrexham | 10.7% |
| Derby 0-0 Wrexham | 10.2% |
| Derby 1-2 Wrexham | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.05 expected goals for Derby and 1.23 for Wrexham, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 40% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Derby keep a clean sheet in 29% of scenarios, Wrexham in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Derby expected goals | 1.05 |
| Wrexham expected goals | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Derby clean sheet | 29% |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 2-0 | W |
Wrexham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-6 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 22 | 5 | 8 |
| Wrexham | 14 | 10 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Wrexham | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Wrexham 1-1 Derby | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- C. Taylor (out)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom (out)
- F. Bilbija (doubtful)
- H. Meister (doubtful)
Wrexham
- N. Broadhead (out)
- L. Cacace (out)
- M. Cleworth (out)
- G. Thomason (out)
- O. Rathbone (doubtful)
- S. Revan (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Taylor5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- A. Mowatt4/5
- B. Clark4/5
- D. Sanderson4/5
- J. Widell Zetterstrom4/5
- R. Hedges4/5
- S. Langas4/5
- D. Ozoh3/5
- C. Morris2/5
- E. Cashin2/5
Wrexham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Patterson5/5
- B. Whiteman5/5
- C. Doyle5/5
- D. Hyam4/5
- J. Ekomie3/5
- J. Windass3/5
- K. Moore3/5
- L. O'Brien3/5
- M. Cleworth3/5
- M. James3/5
- C. O'Hare2/5
Other matches in this competition
- West Ham 1-1 QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea 2-1 NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom 0-1 BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton 1-1 Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston 0-1 MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd 3-0 LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough 1-0 WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton 1-2 Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
- Watford 0-4 BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Derby vs Wrexham prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Derby a 31% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Wrexham 40%. Wrexham are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Derby vs Wrexham?
1-1 (13.2%), followed by 0-1 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%) and 1-2 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
The probability that both Derby and Wrexham score is 46%. Derby have a 29% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wrexham 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model expects 2.28 goals (1.05 for Derby, 1.23 for Wrexham). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 67%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Derby vs Wrexham played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby.
What form are Derby and Wrexham in?
Derby: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Wrexham: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wrexham?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Wrexham and 1 draw. The most recent ended Derby 1-2 Wrexham (Jan 4, 2026).
What was the Derby vs Wrexham result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Derby 1-1 Wrexham. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Wrexham (40%), while a draw was rated at only 28%. The exact score 1-1 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.2%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): correct.
How is the Derby vs Wrexham prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.05 for Derby, 1.23 for Wrexham) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Derby predictions
- All Wrexham predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology