Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Derby vs Wrexham prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Championship, matchday 9: the Derby vs Wrexham match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Pride Park, Derby. Wrexham start as favourites with a 45% chance of victory; Derby are given 24% and the draw 31%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (16.8%), followed by 0-0 (14.5%) and 1-1 (13.0%).
Derby have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Wrexham have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Wrexham therefore arrive in far better shape than Derby. On average Derby score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Wrexham score 1.20 and concede 1.60. In the table, Derby sit 22nd with 5 points from 8 games, Wrexham 14th with 10 points from 8. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Derby have averaged 0.91 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.98 for Wrexham.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Wrexham and 1 draw. The most recent ended Derby 1-2 Wrexham (Jan 4, 2026). Derby out or doubtful: P. Agyemang, F. Bilbija, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, H. Meister, D. Murkin and J. Widell Zetterstrom. Wrexham: L. Cacace, M. Cleworth, O. Rathbone, S. Revan and G. Thomason. In double chance terms, "Derby or draw" stands at 55%, "Wrexham or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : Wrexham are tipped by our AI model in this Derby v Wrexham (45%). In the table, Derby (22nd, 5 pts) host Wrexham (14th, 10 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Derby – Wrexham. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (16.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 65% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Derby 0-1 Wrexham | 16.8% |
| Derby 0-0 Wrexham | 14.5% |
| Derby 1-1 Wrexham | 13.0% |
| Derby 1-0 Wrexham | 11.2% |
| Derby 0-2 Wrexham | 9.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.77 expected goals for Derby and 1.16 for Wrexham, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 30% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Derby keep a clean sheet in 31% of scenarios, Wrexham in 46%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Derby expected goals | 0.77 |
| Wrexham expected goals | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Derby clean sheet | 31% |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 46% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 2-0 | W |
Wrexham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 11, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-6 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 22 | 5 | 8 |
| Wrexham | 14 | 10 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Wrexham | Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Wrexham 1-1 Derby | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- F. Bilbija (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- H. Meister (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom (out)
Wrexham
- L. Cacace (out)
- M. Cleworth (out)
- O. Rathbone (out)
- S. Revan (out)
- G. Thomason (out)
Most regular starters
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Taylor5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- A. Mowatt4/5
- B. Clark4/5
- D. Sanderson4/5
- J. Widell Zetterstrom4/5
- R. Hedges4/5
- S. Langas4/5
- D. Ozoh3/5
- C. Morris2/5
- E. Cashin2/5
Wrexham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Patterson5/5
- B. Whiteman5/5
- C. Doyle5/5
- D. Hyam4/5
- J. Ekomie3/5
- J. Windass3/5
- K. Moore3/5
- L. O'Brien3/5
- M. Cleworth3/5
- M. James3/5
- C. O'Hare2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Swansea – NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom – BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton – Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston – MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd – LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough – WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn – CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton – Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
- Watford – BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Derby vs Wrexham prediction?
Our AI gives Derby a 24% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Wrexham 45%. Wrexham are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Derby vs Wrexham?
0-1 (16.8%), followed by 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.2%) and 0-2 (9.8%).
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?
The probability that both Derby and Wrexham score is 37%. Derby have a 31% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Wrexham 46%.
How many goals should we expect in Derby vs Wrexham?
The model expects 1.93 goals (0.77 for Derby, 1.16 for Wrexham). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 30%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Derby vs Wrexham played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Pride Park, Derby.
What form are Derby and Wrexham in?
Derby: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Wrexham: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wrexham?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Derby, 1 for Wrexham and 1 draw. The most recent ended Derby 1-2 Wrexham (Jan 4, 2026).
How is the Derby vs Wrexham prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.77 for Derby, 1.16 for Wrexham) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Derby predictions
- All Wrexham predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology