Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Swansea vs Norwich prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Championship, matchday 9: the Swansea vs Norwich match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time). Venue: Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea. Our model makes Swansea clear favourites: a 79% chance of winning, against 12% for the draw and 9% for Norwich. On the correct score, 3-0 comes out on top (8.3%), followed by 3-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (8.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Swansea have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Norwich have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Swansea therefore arrive in far better shape than Norwich. On average Swansea score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Norwich score 2.20 and concede 3.00. In the table, Swansea sit 1st with 17 points from 8 games, Norwich 17th with 9 points from 8. 16 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Swansea have averaged 1.92 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.58 for Norwich.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Swansea, 0 for Norwich and 1 draw. The most recent ended Norwich 1-1 Swansea (Apr 25, 2026). Swansea out or doubtful: C. Burgess, J. Key and R. Stewart. Norwich: A. Ahmed, L. Mahovo and M. Topic. In double chance terms, "Swansea or draw" stands at 91%, "Norwich or draw" at 21% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Our model backs Swansea to edge Norwich (79% probability). In the table, Swansea (1st, 17 pts) host Norwich (17th, 9 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 77%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Swansea – Norwich. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (8.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 39% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Swansea 3-0 Norwich | 8.3% |
| Swansea 3-1 Norwich | 8.2% |
| Swansea 2-0 Norwich | 8.1% |
| Swansea 2-1 Norwich | 8.0% |
| Swansea 4-0 Norwich | 6.4% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 3.07 expected goals for Swansea and 0.99 for Norwich, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 77% and "both teams to score" at 60%. Goals look likely in this one. Swansea keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Norwich in 5%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Swansea expected goals | 3.07 |
| Norwich expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% |
| Swansea clean sheet | 37% |
| Norwich clean sheet | 5% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Swansea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 2-0 | W |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 3-0 | W |
Norwich
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 3-4 | L |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Manchester City · EFL Cup | 0-5 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 3-4 | L |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 3-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1 | 17 | 8 |
| Norwich | 17 | 9 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Norwich 1-1 Swansea | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Swansea 2-1 Norwich | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Swansea
- C. Burgess (out)
- J. Key (out)
- R. Stewart (out)
Norwich
- A. Ahmed (out)
- L. Mahovo (out)
- M. Topic (out)
Most regular starters
Swansea
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Tymon5/5
- L. Vigouroux5/5
- S. Welsh5/5
- A. Idah4/5
- F. Lissah4/5
- J. Key4/5
- M. Stamenic4/5
- E. Just3/5
- Eom Ji-Sung3/5
- J. Fulton3/5
- J. Opoku3/5
Norwich
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brooks4/5
- B. Chrisene4/5
- K. McLean4/5
- P. Mattsson4/5
- A. Musaba3/5
- J. Cordoba3/5
- K. Fisher3/5
- R. McConville3/5
- V. Kovacevic3/5
- A. Slimane2/5
- J. Stacey2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- West Ham – QPROct 9, 2026
- West Brom – BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton – Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston – MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd – LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby – WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough – WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn – CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton – Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
- Watford – BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Swansea vs Norwich prediction?
Our AI gives Swansea a 79% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Norwich 9%. Swansea are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Swansea vs Norwich?
3-0 (8.3%), followed by 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.1%), 2-1 (8.0%) and 4-0 (6.4%).
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Norwich?
The probability that both Swansea and Norwich score is 60%. Swansea have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Norwich 5%.
How many goals should we expect in Swansea vs Norwich?
The model expects 4.06 goals (3.07 for Swansea, 0.99 for Norwich). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 91%, over 2.5 goals 77%, over 3.5 goals 58%.
When and where is Swansea vs Norwich played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea.
What form are Swansea and Norwich in?
Swansea: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Norwich: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (11 scored, 15 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Norwich?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Swansea, 0 for Norwich and 1 draw. The most recent ended Norwich 1-1 Swansea (Apr 25, 2026).
How is the Swansea vs Norwich prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.07 for Swansea, 0.99 for Norwich) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Swansea predictions
- All Norwich predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology