Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
West Brom vs Birmingham prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
West Brom take on Birmingham on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), a Championship, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich. Birmingham start as favourites with a 54% chance of victory; West Brom are given 15% and the draw 31%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (22.2%), followed by 0-0 (18.6%) and 0-2 (13.2%).
Over their last 5 matches, West Brom have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Birmingham have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 8 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average West Brom score 0.80 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Birmingham score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, West Brom sit 5th with 14 points from 8 games, Birmingham 10th with 11 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, West Brom have averaged 0.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.53 for Birmingham.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for West Brom, 0 for Birmingham and 2 draws. The most recent ended Birmingham 0-0 West Brom (Feb 10, 2026). West Brom out or doubtful: N. Galves and M. Johnston. Birmingham: M. Bird, T. Gardner-Hickman, D. Gray, M. Leonard and S. Wright. In double chance terms, "West Brom or draw" stands at 46%, "Birmingham or draw" at 85% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : Birmingham are favourites for this West Brom v Birmingham, with a 54% win probability from our model. On recent form, West Brom have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Birmingham have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss in 5. One to watch: Birmingham will be without M. Bird and T. Gardner-Hickman.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as West Brom – Birmingham. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (22.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 74% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| West Brom 0-1 Birmingham | 22.2% |
| West Brom 0-0 Birmingham | 18.6% |
| West Brom 0-2 Birmingham | 13.2% |
| West Brom 1-1 Birmingham | 10.9% |
| West Brom 1-0 Birmingham | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.49 expected goals for West Brom and 1.19 for Birmingham, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 24% and "both teams to score" at 27%. Few goals are expected here. West Brom keep a clean sheet in 30% of scenarios, Birmingham in 61%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| West Brom expected goals | 0.49 |
| Birmingham expected goals | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score | 27% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9% |
| West Brom clean sheet | 30% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 61% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
West Brom
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Watford · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Birmingham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 5 | 14 | 8 |
| Birmingham | 10 | 11 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | Birmingham 0-0 West Brom | Championship |
| Nov 26, 2025 | West Brom 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
Out and doubtful
West Brom
- N. Galves (out)
- M. Johnston (out)
Birmingham
- M. Bird (out)
- T. Gardner-Hickman (out)
- D. Gray (out)
- M. Leonard (out)
- S. Wright (out)
Most regular starters
West Brom
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Styles5/5
- I. Price5/5
- G. Campbell4/5
- J. Molumby4/5
- J. Morgan4/5
- M. O'Leary4/5
- N. Phillips4/5
- A. Heggebo3/5
- O. Diakite3/5
- C. Mepham2/5
- C. Townsend2/5
Birmingham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Osayi-Samuel5/5
- C. Klarer5/5
- J. Beadle5/5
- J. Stansfield5/5
- P. Neumann5/5
- T. Iwata5/5
- A. Cochrane4/5
- A. Priske4/5
- L. Millar4/5
- C. Vicente3/5
- J. E. Solis Romero2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- West Ham – QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea – NorwichOct 10, 2026
- Charlton – Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston – MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd – LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby – WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough – WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn – CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton – Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
- Watford – BurnleyOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the West Brom vs Birmingham prediction?
Our AI gives West Brom a 15% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Birmingham 54%. Birmingham are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for West Brom vs Birmingham?
0-1 (22.2%), followed by 0-0 (18.6%), 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.9%) and 1-0 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
The probability that both West Brom and Birmingham score is 27%. West Brom have a 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Birmingham 61%.
How many goals should we expect in West Brom vs Birmingham?
The model expects 1.68 goals (0.49 for West Brom, 1.19 for Birmingham). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 50%, over 2.5 goals 24%, over 3.5 goals 9%.
When and where is West Brom vs Birmingham played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich.
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in?
West Brom: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 3 conceded). Birmingham: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for West Brom, 0 for Birmingham and 2 draws. The most recent ended Birmingham 0-0 West Brom (Feb 10, 2026).
How is the West Brom vs Birmingham prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.49 for West Brom, 1.19 for Birmingham) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All West Brom predictions
- All Birmingham predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology