Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Watford vs Burnley: 0-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Watford 0-4 Burnley. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Burnley at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
Match analysis
Watford and Burnley met on Saturday, October 10, 2026, a Championship, matchday 9 fixture. Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford. Before kick-off, our model gave Watford a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Burnley 39%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.2%) and 1-0 (10.1%).
Watford have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 7. Burnley have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Watford score 0.60 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Burnley score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Watford sit 20th with 8 points from 8 games, Burnley 24th with 4 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Watford have averaged 1.07 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.80 for Burnley.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Watford, 3 for Burnley and 1 draw. The most recent ended Watford 1-2 Burnley (Apr 18, 2025). Watford out or doubtful: K. Baah, E. Bove, T. Akomeah (doubtful), M. Bola (doubtful), J. Ngakia (doubtful) and J. Zemura (doubtful). Burnley: E. Agyei, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey and J. Banel (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Watford or draw" stands at 61%, "Burnley or draw" at 67% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Watford and Burnley meet in a wide-open clash with no clear favourite (draw at 27%). In the table, Watford (20th, 8 pts) host Burnley (24th, 4 pts). One to watch: Burnley will be without E. Agyei and A. Barnes.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Watford – Burnley. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Watford 1-1 Burnley | 12.9% |
| Watford 0-1 Burnley | 11.2% |
| Watford 1-0 Burnley | 10.1% |
| Watford 0-0 Burnley | 8.7% |
| Watford 1-2 Burnley | 8.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.16 expected goals for Watford and 1.28 for Burnley, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 44% and "both teams to score" at 50%. Watford keep a clean sheet in 28% of scenarios, Burnley in 31%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Watford expected goals | 1.16 |
| Burnley expected goals | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Watford clean sheet | 28% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 31% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Watford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 0-2 | L |
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bristol City · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 20 | 8 | 8 |
| Burnley | 24 | 4 | 8 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2025 | Watford 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Burnley 2-1 Watford | Championship |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Burnley 1-1 Watford | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2022 | Watford 1-0 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Watford 1-2 Burnley | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Watford
- K. Baah (out)
- E. Bove (out)
- T. Akomeah (doubtful)
- M. Bola (doubtful)
- J. Ngakia (doubtful)
- J. Zemura (doubtful)
Burnley
- E. Agyei (out)
- A. Barnes (out)
- J. Beyer (out)
- B. Humphreys (out)
- H. Mejbri (out)
- M. Obafemi (out)
- A. Ramsey (out)
- J. Banel (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Watford
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Ravaglia5/5
- H. Kyprianou5/5
- K. Keben5/5
- M. Pollock5/5
- E. Kayembe4/5
- I. Bravo4/5
- M. Doumbia4/5
- A. Nabizada3/5
- J. Zemura3/5
- O. Maamma3/5
- L. Kjerrumgaard2/5
Burnley
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Roberts4/5
- J. Laurent4/5
- M. Weiss4/5
- O. Sonne4/5
- U. Raghouber4/5
- Z. Amdouni4/5
- A. Ramsey3/5
- Igor3/5
- K. Walker3/5
- L. Ramazani3/5
- M. Alleyne3/5
Other matches in this competition
- West Ham 1-1 QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea 2-1 NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom 0-1 BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton 1-1 Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston 0-1 MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd 3-0 LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby 1-1 WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough 1-0 WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn 2-1 CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton 1-2 Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Watford vs Burnley prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Watford a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Burnley 39%. Burnley are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 0-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Watford vs Burnley?
1-1 (12.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (8.7%) and 1-2 (8.3%).
Will both teams score in Watford vs Burnley?
The probability that both Watford and Burnley score is 50%. Watford have a 28% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Burnley 31%.
How many goals should we expect in Watford vs Burnley?
The model expects 2.44 goals (1.16 for Watford, 1.28 for Burnley). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 44%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Watford vs Burnley played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford.
What form are Watford and Burnley in?
Watford: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 7 conceded). Burnley: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Burnley?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Watford, 3 for Burnley and 1 draw. The most recent ended Watford 1-2 Burnley (Apr 18, 2025).
What was the Watford vs Burnley result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Watford 0-4 Burnley. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Burnley at 39%. The model considered this score unlikely (1.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (50%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (44%): missed.
How is the Watford vs Burnley prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.16 for Watford, 1.28 for Burnley) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Watford predictions
- All Burnley predictions
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- Today’s predictions
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