Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 10, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Watford vs Burnley prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Championship, matchday 9: the Watford vs Burnley match is scheduled on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time). Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford. Our model makes Watford clear favourites: a 62% chance of winning, against 24% for the draw and 14% for Burnley. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (17.3%), followed by 2-0 (13.9%) and 0-0 (10.8%).
Watford have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Burnley have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 8. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Watford score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Burnley score 1.00 and concede 1.60. In the table, Watford sit 20th with 8 points from 8 games, Burnley 24th with 4 points from 8. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Watford have averaged 1.25 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.80 for Burnley.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Watford and Burnley: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Watford out or doubtful: T. Akomeah, K. Baah, M. Bola, E. Bove, J. Ngakia and J. Zemura. Burnley: E. Agyei, J. Banel, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Cullen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri and A. Ramsey. In double chance terms, "Watford or draw" stands at 86%, "Burnley or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Watford are favourites for this Watford v Burnley, with a 62% win probability from our model. In the table, Watford (20th, 8 pts) host Burnley (24th, 4 pts). One to watch: Burnley will be without E. Agyei and J. Banel.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Watford – Burnley. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (17.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Watford 1-0 Burnley | 17.3% |
| Watford 2-0 Burnley | 13.9% |
| Watford 0-0 Burnley | 10.8% |
| Watford 1-1 Burnley | 10.7% |
| Watford 2-1 Burnley | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Watford and 0.62 for Burnley, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 37%. Few goals are expected here. Watford keep a clean sheet in 54% of scenarios, Burnley in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Watford expected goals | 1.61 |
| Burnley expected goals | 0.62 |
| Both teams to score | 37% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Watford clean sheet | 54% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Watford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 0-2 | L |
| Aug 29, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 1-3 | L |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bristol City · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 20 | 8 | 8 |
| Burnley | 24 | 4 | 8 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Watford and Burnley: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Watford
- T. Akomeah (out)
- K. Baah (out)
- M. Bola (out)
- E. Bove (out)
- J. Ngakia (out)
- J. Zemura (out)
Burnley
- E. Agyei (out)
- J. Banel (out)
- A. Barnes (out)
- J. Beyer (out)
- J. Cullen (out)
- B. Humphreys (out)
- H. Mejbri (out)
- A. Ramsey (out)
Most regular starters
Watford
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Ravaglia5/5
- H. Kyprianou5/5
- K. Keben5/5
- M. Pollock5/5
- J. Zemura4/5
- O. Maamma4/5
- A. Nabizada3/5
- E. Kayembe3/5
- I. Bravo3/5
- M. Doumbia3/5
- O. H. Traore3/5
Burnley
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Roberts4/5
- J. Laurent4/5
- M. Weiss4/5
- O. Sonne4/5
- U. Raghouber4/5
- Z. Amdouni4/5
- A. Ramsey3/5
- Igor3/5
- K. Walker3/5
- L. Ramazani3/5
- M. Alleyne3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- West Ham – QPROct 9, 2026
- Swansea – NorwichOct 10, 2026
- West Brom – BirminghamOct 10, 2026
- Charlton – Bristol CityOct 10, 2026
- Preston – MillwallOct 10, 2026
- Sheffield Utd – LincolnOct 10, 2026
- Derby – WrexhamOct 10, 2026
- Middlesbrough – WolvesOct 10, 2026
- Blackburn – CardiffOct 10, 2026
- Bolton – Stoke CityOct 10, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Watford vs Burnley prediction?
Our AI gives Watford a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Burnley 14%. Watford are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Watford vs Burnley?
1-0 (17.3%), followed by 2-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.7%) and 2-1 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Watford vs Burnley?
The probability that both Watford and Burnley score is 37%. Watford have a 54% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Burnley 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Watford vs Burnley?
The model expects 2.23 goals (1.61 for Watford, 0.62 for Burnley). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Watford vs Burnley played?
Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 9. Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford.
What form are Watford and Burnley in?
Watford: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Burnley: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 8 conceded).
How is the Watford vs Burnley prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Watford, 0.62 for Burnley) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Watford predictions
- All Burnley predictions
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