Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Bolton vs Bristol City: 2-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Bolton 2-3 Bristol City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bristol City at 42%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.
Match analysis
Bolton and Bristol City met on Saturday, October 31, 2026, a Championship, matchday 13 fixture. Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich. Before kick-off, our model gave Bolton a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bristol City 42%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.9%) and 1-0 (9.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Bolton have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Bristol City have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 3. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Bolton score 1.80 and concede 2.20 goals per game; Bristol City score 0.60 and concede 0.60. In the table, Bolton sit 18th with 14 points from 12 games, Bristol City 14th with 15 points from 12. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Bolton have averaged 1.60 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.22 for Bristol City.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bolton and Bristol City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. Bolton out or doubtful: E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson and C. Forino-Joseph (doubtful). Bristol City: N. Eile, E. Adebayo (doubtful), R. Dickie (doubtful) and L. Tolaj (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Bolton or draw" stands at 58%, "Bristol City or draw" at 70% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Bristol City are favourites for this Bolton v Bristol City, with a 42% win probability from our model. In the table, Bolton (18th, 14 pts) host Bristol City (14th, 15 pts). One to watch: Bolton will be without E. Erhahon and R. Hardie.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bolton – Bristol City. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bolton 1-1 Bristol City | 12.9% |
| Bolton 0-1 Bristol City | 11.9% |
| Bolton 1-0 Bristol City | 9.7% |
| Bolton 0-0 Bristol City | 9.0% |
| Bolton 1-2 Bristol City | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.08 expected goals for Bolton and 1.33 for Bristol City, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 43% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Bolton keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Bristol City in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bolton expected goals | 1.08 |
| Bristol City expected goals | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Bolton clean sheet | 26% |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bolton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 1-5 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 4-3 | W |
Bristol City
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Blackburn · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Crystal Palace · Club Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 18 | 14 | 12 |
| Bristol City | 14 | 15 | 12 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Bolton and Bristol City: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Bolton
- E. Erhahon (out)
- R. Hardie (out)
- J. McAtee (out)
- J. Nelson (out)
- C. Forino-Joseph (doubtful)
Bristol City
- N. Eile (out)
- E. Adebayo (doubtful)
- R. Dickie (doubtful)
- L. Tolaj (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Bolton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Toal5/5
- G. Bazunu5/5
- G. Larrazabal5/5
- J. Sheehan5/5
- T. Gale5/5
- E. Erhahon4/5
- A. Famewo3/5
- K. Dong3/5
- L. Brunt3/5
- R. Rodrigues3/5
- S. Dalby3/5
Bristol City
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Ballard5/5
- G. Tanner5/5
- C. Pring4/5
- J. Knight4/5
- L. McNally4/5
- R. Atkinson4/5
- S. Tickle4/5
- S. Twine4/5
- G. Yah3/5
- R. Cardines3/5
- Y. Hirakawa3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stoke City 2-0 PrestonOct 31, 2026
- Norwich 3-2 WatfordOct 31, 2026
- Lincoln 1-3 BirminghamOct 31, 2026
- Southampton 4-1 QPROct 31, 2026
- Wolves 3-0 CardiffOct 31, 2026
- West Ham 1-3 West BromOct 31, 2026
- Middlesbrough 3-0 CharltonOct 31, 2026
- Millwall 4-1 DerbyOct 31, 2026
- Swansea 4-0 BlackburnOct 31, 2026
- Burnley 0-0 PortsmouthOct 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bolton vs Bristol City prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Bolton a 30% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bristol City 42%. Bristol City are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 2-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Bolton vs Bristol City?
1-1 (12.9%), followed by 0-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.0%) and 1-2 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Bristol City?
The probability that both Bolton and Bristol City score is 49%. Bolton have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bristol City 34%.
How many goals should we expect in Bolton vs Bristol City?
The model expects 2.41 goals (1.08 for Bolton, 1.33 for Bristol City). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Bolton vs Bristol City played?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 13. Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium, Horwich.
What form are Bolton and Bristol City in?
Bolton: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 11 conceded). Bristol City: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the Bolton vs Bristol City result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Bolton 2-3 Bristol City. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Bristol City at 42%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.1%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): missed.
How is the Bolton vs Bristol City prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.08 for Bolton, 1.33 for Bristol City) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bolton predictions
- All Bristol City predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology