Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Southampton vs QPR: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Southampton 4-1 QPR. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Southampton at 42%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
Match analysis
Southampton and QPR met on Saturday, October 31, 2026, a Championship, matchday 13 fixture. Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Before kick-off, our model gave Southampton a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and QPR 37%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (8.0%), followed by 2-1 (7.9%) and 1-2 (7.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Southampton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, QPR have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Southampton score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; QPR score 2.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Southampton sit 6th with 20 points from 12 games, QPR 8th with 20 points from 12. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Southampton have averaged 1.73 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.09 for QPR.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for Southampton, 0 for QPR and 0 draws. The most recent ended Southampton 5-0 QPR (Feb 24, 2026). Southampton out or doubtful: F. Downes (doubtful) and C. Larin (doubtful). QPR: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue and J. Clarke-Salter (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Southampton or draw" stands at 63%, "QPR or draw" at 58% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Southampton and QPR: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Southampton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while QPR have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 73%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Southampton – QPR. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 36% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Southampton 1-1 QPR | 8.0% |
| Southampton 2-1 QPR | 7.9% |
| Southampton 1-2 QPR | 7.3% |
| Southampton 2-2 QPR | 7.3% |
| Southampton 3-1 QPR | 5.2% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.98 expected goals for Southampton and 1.83 for QPR, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 73% and "both teams to score" at 72%. Goals look likely in this one. Southampton keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, QPR in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Southampton expected goals | 1.98 |
| QPR expected goals | 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% |
| Southampton clean sheet | 16% |
| QPR clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Southampton
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 3-2 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 0-0 | D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Norwich · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 1-2 | L |
QPR
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 5-0 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Birmingham · Championship | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Derby · Championship | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 9, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 6 | 20 | 12 |
| QPR | 8 | 20 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Southampton 5-0 QPR | Championship |
| Nov 5, 2025 | QPR 1-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 23, 2023 | QPR 0-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Southampton 2-1 QPR | Championship |
| Feb 7, 2015 | QPR 0-1 Southampton | Premier League |
Out and doubtful
Southampton
- F. Downes (doubtful)
- C. Larin (doubtful)
QPR
- R. Burrell (out)
- T. Lamptey (out)
- N. Madsen (out)
- A. S. Mbengue (out)
- J. Clarke-Salter (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Southampton
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Peretz5/5
- F. Azaz5/5
- J. Ward-Prowse5/5
- K. Schlotterbeck5/5
- J. Bree4/5
- J. Stephens4/5
- L. Scienza4/5
- R. Manning4/5
- C. Larin3/5
- F. Downes3/5
- K. Matsuki3/5
QPR
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Kamara5/5
- J. Dunne5/5
- P. Charles5/5
- R. Edwards5/5
- B. Kemper4/5
- K. Adamson4/5
- K. Poku4/5
- P. Smyth4/5
- H. Vale3/5
- N. Madsen3/5
- R. Kolli3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stoke City 2-0 PrestonOct 31, 2026
- Norwich 3-2 WatfordOct 31, 2026
- Lincoln 1-3 BirminghamOct 31, 2026
- Bolton 2-3 Bristol CityOct 31, 2026
- Wolves 3-0 CardiffOct 31, 2026
- West Ham 1-3 West BromOct 31, 2026
- Middlesbrough 3-0 CharltonOct 31, 2026
- Millwall 4-1 DerbyOct 31, 2026
- Swansea 4-0 BlackburnOct 31, 2026
- Burnley 0-0 PortsmouthOct 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Southampton vs QPR prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Southampton a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and QPR 37%. Southampton are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Southampton vs QPR?
1-1 (8.0%), followed by 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.3%), 2-2 (7.3%) and 3-1 (5.2%).
Will both teams score in Southampton vs QPR?
The probability that both Southampton and QPR score is 72%. Southampton have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, QPR 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Southampton vs QPR?
The model expects 3.81 goals (1.98 for Southampton, 1.83 for QPR). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 53%.
When and where is Southampton vs QPR played?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 13. Venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton.
What form are Southampton and QPR in?
Southampton: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). QPR: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (12 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and QPR?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for Southampton, 0 for QPR and 0 draws. The most recent ended Southampton 5-0 QPR (Feb 24, 2026).
What was the Southampton vs QPR result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Southampton 4-1 QPR. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Southampton at 42%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (72%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
How is the Southampton vs QPR prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.98 for Southampton, 1.83 for QPR) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Southampton predictions
- All QPR predictions
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