Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Lincoln vs Birmingham: 1-3 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Lincoln 1-3 Birmingham. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Birmingham at 45%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
Match analysis
Lincoln and Birmingham met on Saturday, October 31, 2026, a Championship, matchday 13 fixture. Venue: Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Before kick-off, our model gave Lincoln a 28% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Birmingham 45%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (13.0%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-0 (9.7%).
Lincoln have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Birmingham have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 3. Birmingham therefore arrive in far better shape than Lincoln. On average Lincoln score 1.40 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Birmingham score 2.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Lincoln sit 15th with 15 points from 12 games, Birmingham 7th with 20 points from 12. 8 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Lincoln have averaged 1.15 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.80 for Birmingham.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lincoln, 3 for Birmingham and 0 draws. The most recent ended Birmingham 1-0 Lincoln (Mar 8, 2025). Lincoln out or doubtful: T. Darikwa, M. Melia and E. Wheatley. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho and A. Priske (doubtful). In double chance terms, "Lincoln or draw" stands at 55%, "Birmingham or draw" at 72% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Birmingham are tipped by our AI model in this Lincoln v Birmingham (45%). On recent form, Lincoln have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Birmingham have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Lincoln – Birmingham. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (13.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 54% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lincoln 0-1 Birmingham | 13.0% |
| Lincoln 1-1 Birmingham | 12.9% |
| Lincoln 0-0 Birmingham | 9.7% |
| Lincoln 1-0 Birmingham | 9.6% |
| Lincoln 0-2 Birmingham | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.99 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.34 for Birmingham, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 41% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Few goals are expected here. Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 26% of scenarios, Birmingham in 37%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Lincoln expected goals | 0.99 |
| Birmingham expected goals | 1.34 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% |
| Lincoln clean sheet | 26% |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 37% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Lincoln
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 4-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Millwall · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 14, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 0-6 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 1-2 | L |
Birmingham
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 3-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 4-0 | W |
| Oct 10, 2026 | West Brom · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Middlesbrough · Championship | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| Birmingham | 7 | 20 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Birmingham 1-0 Lincoln | League One |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Birmingham 2-1 Lincoln | FA Cup |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Lincoln 1-3 Birmingham | League One |
Out and doubtful
Lincoln
- T. Darikwa (out)
- M. Melia (out)
- E. Wheatley (out)
Birmingham
- M. Leonard (out)
- Paik Seung-Ho (out)
- A. Priske (doubtful)
Most regular starters
Lincoln
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Elerewe5/5
- G. Wickens5/5
- S. Bradley5/5
- A. Reach4/5
- B. House4/5
- C. McGrandles4/5
- F. Draper4/5
- A. Coubis3/5
- D. Jefferies3/5
- R. Hackett-Fairchild3/5
- I. Varfolomeev2/5
Birmingham
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Cochrane5/5
- B. Osayi-Samuel5/5
- C. Klarer5/5
- J. Beadle5/5
- J. E. Solis Romero5/5
- J. Stansfield5/5
- L. Millar5/5
- P. Neumann5/5
- T. Iwata5/5
- A. Priske3/5
- C. Vicente3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stoke City 2-0 PrestonOct 31, 2026
- Norwich 3-2 WatfordOct 31, 2026
- Bolton 2-3 Bristol CityOct 31, 2026
- Southampton 4-1 QPROct 31, 2026
- Wolves 3-0 CardiffOct 31, 2026
- West Ham 1-3 West BromOct 31, 2026
- Middlesbrough 3-0 CharltonOct 31, 2026
- Millwall 4-1 DerbyOct 31, 2026
- Swansea 4-0 BlackburnOct 31, 2026
- Burnley 0-0 PortsmouthOct 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lincoln vs Birmingham prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Lincoln a 28% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Birmingham 45%. Birmingham are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-3.
What is the most likely correct score for Lincoln vs Birmingham?
0-1 (13.0%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
The probability that both Lincoln and Birmingham score is 46%. Lincoln have a 26% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Birmingham 37%.
How many goals should we expect in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
The model expects 2.33 goals (0.99 for Lincoln, 1.34 for Birmingham). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 68%, over 2.5 goals 41%, over 3.5 goals 21%.
When and where is Lincoln vs Birmingham played?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 13. Venue: Sincil Bank, Lincoln.
What form are Lincoln and Birmingham in?
Lincoln: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 14 conceded). Birmingham: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Birmingham?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Lincoln, 3 for Birmingham and 0 draws. The most recent ended Birmingham 1-0 Lincoln (Mar 8, 2025).
What was the Lincoln vs Birmingham result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Lincoln 1-3 Birmingham. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Birmingham at 45%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (41%): missed.
How is the Lincoln vs Birmingham prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.99 for Lincoln, 1.34 for Birmingham) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Lincoln predictions
- All Birmingham predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology