Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 12:30 (UK time)
Norwich vs Watford: 3-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Norwich 3-2 Watford. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Norwich at 64%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
Match analysis
Norwich and Watford met on Saturday, October 31, 2026, a Championship, matchday 13 fixture. Venue: Carrow Road, Norwich. Before kick-off, our model gave Norwich a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Watford 15%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (12.0%), followed by 2-0 (11.8%) and 1-1 (9.9%).
Norwich have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 7 and conceding 9. Watford have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Norwich score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Watford score 0.60 and concede 2.20. In the table, Norwich sit 20th with 12 points from 12 games, Watford 21st with 11 points from 12. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Norwich have averaged 0.95 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.28 for Watford.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Norwich, 2 for Watford and 0 draws. The most recent ended Norwich 0-1 Watford (Dec 29, 2025). Norwich out or doubtful: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo, G. Forsyth, M. Toure, P. Mattsson (doubtful) and M. Topic (doubtful). Watford: M. Antonio, K. Baah, E. Bove, S. Coulibaly and J. Ngakia. In double chance terms, "Norwich or draw" stands at 85%, "Watford or draw" at 36% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Norwich are tipped by our AI model in this Norwich v Watford (64%). On recent form, Norwich are struggling (4 losses in 5) while Watford are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Norwich – Watford. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Norwich 1-0 Watford | 12.0% |
| Norwich 2-0 Watford | 11.8% |
| Norwich 1-1 Watford | 9.9% |
| Norwich 2-1 Watford | 9.8% |
| Norwich 3-0 Watford | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.97 expected goals for Norwich and 0.83 for Watford, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 53% and "both teams to score" at 49%. Norwich keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, Watford in 14%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Norwich expected goals | 1.97 |
| Watford expected goals | 0.83 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% |
| Norwich clean sheet | 44% |
| Watford clean sheet | 14% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Norwich
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 3-1 | W |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Southampton · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bolton · Championship | 3-4 | L |
Watford
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Wolves · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Charlton · Championship | 2-0 | W |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Cardiff · Championship | 1-5 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Bristol City · Championship | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 20 | 12 | 12 |
| Watford | 21 | 11 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | Norwich 0-1 Watford | Championship |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Watford 3-2 Norwich | Championship |
| Aug 12, 2025 | Watford 1-2 Norwich | EFL Cup |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Watford 0-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Norwich 4-1 Watford | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Norwich
- A. Ahmed (out)
- P. A. Diallo (out)
- G. Forsyth (out)
- M. Toure (out)
- P. Mattsson (doubtful)
- M. Topic (doubtful)
Watford
- M. Antonio (out)
- K. Baah (out)
- E. Bove (out)
- S. Coulibaly (out)
- J. Ngakia (out)
Most regular starters
Norwich
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Brooks5/5
- J. Stacey5/5
- O. Schwartau5/5
- P. Mattsson5/5
- R. McConville5/5
- B. Chrisene4/5
- J. Cordoba4/5
- J. Wright4/5
- D. Grimshaw3/5
- M. Kvistgaarden3/5
- A. Slimane2/5
Watford
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Kayembe5/5
- F. Ravaglia5/5
- H. Kyprianou5/5
- M. Pollock5/5
- I. Bravo4/5
- K. Keben4/5
- L. Kjerrumgaard4/5
- B. Mlacic3/5
- M. Boadu3/5
- A. Nabizada2/5
- K. Diatta2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stoke City 2-0 PrestonOct 31, 2026
- Lincoln 1-3 BirminghamOct 31, 2026
- Bolton 2-3 Bristol CityOct 31, 2026
- Southampton 4-1 QPROct 31, 2026
- Wolves 3-0 CardiffOct 31, 2026
- West Ham 1-3 West BromOct 31, 2026
- Middlesbrough 3-0 CharltonOct 31, 2026
- Millwall 4-1 DerbyOct 31, 2026
- Swansea 4-0 BlackburnOct 31, 2026
- Burnley 0-0 PortsmouthOct 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Norwich vs Watford prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Norwich a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Watford 15%. Norwich are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Norwich vs Watford?
1-0 (12.0%), followed by 2-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 3-0 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Watford?
The probability that both Norwich and Watford score is 49%. Norwich have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Watford 14%.
How many goals should we expect in Norwich vs Watford?
The model expects 2.80 goals (1.97 for Norwich, 0.83 for Watford). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 77%, over 2.5 goals 53%, over 3.5 goals 31%.
When and where is Norwich vs Watford played?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:30 (UK time), Championship, matchday 13. Venue: Carrow Road, Norwich.
What form are Norwich and Watford in?
Norwich: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Watford: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Watford?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 3 wins for Norwich, 2 for Watford and 0 draws. The most recent ended Norwich 0-1 Watford (Dec 29, 2025).
What was the Norwich vs Watford result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Norwich 3-2 Watford. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Norwich at 64%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.7%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (53%): correct.
How is the Norwich vs Watford prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.97 for Norwich, 0.83 for Watford) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Norwich predictions
- All Watford predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology