Championship· Kick-off : Saturday, October 31, 2026, 15:00 (UK time)
Millwall vs Derby: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Millwall 4-1 Derby. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Millwall was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
Match analysis
Millwall vs Derby was played on Saturday, October 31, 2026 (Championship, matchday 13). Venue: The Den, London. Before kick-off, our model gave Millwall a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Derby 18%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (12.6%), ahead of 2-0 (11.2%) and 1-1 (10.9%).
Millwall have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Derby have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Millwall score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Derby score 0.80 and concede 1.60. In the table, Millwall sit 13th with 15 points from 12 games, Derby 23rd with 7 points from 12. 10 places separate the two sides. Over their recent games, Millwall have averaged 1.23 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.94 for Derby.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Millwall, 0 for Derby and 1 draw. The most recent ended Millwall 1-0 Derby (Mar 10, 2026). Millwall out or doubtful: T. Arconte, J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, M. Servais and M. Luongo (doubtful). Derby: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson (suspended) and C. Taylor. In double chance terms, "Millwall or draw" stands at 82%, "Derby or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Millwall to edge Derby (59% probability). In the table, Millwall (13th, 15 pts) host Derby (23rd, 7 pts). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 48%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Millwall – Derby. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Millwall 1-0 Derby | 12.6% |
| Millwall 2-0 Derby | 11.2% |
| Millwall 1-1 Derby | 10.9% |
| Millwall 2-1 Derby | 9.7% |
| Millwall 0-0 Derby | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.78 for Millwall, 0.87 for Derby): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 48%. Millwall keep a clean sheet in 42% of scenarios, Derby in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Millwall expected goals | 1.78 |
| Derby expected goals | 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Millwall clean sheet | 42% |
| Derby clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Millwall
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Portsmouth · Championship | 1-2 | L |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Lincoln · Championship | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Swansea · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Preston · Championship | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 19, 2026 | West Ham · Championship | 2-2 | D |
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Sheffield Utd · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Stoke City · Championship | 0-1 | L |
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR · Championship | 1-4 | L |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham · Championship | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley · Championship | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| Derby | 23 | 7 | 12 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Millwall 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
Out and doubtful
Millwall
- T. Arconte (out)
- J. Coburn (out)
- C. De Norre (out)
- L. Jensen (out)
- F. Marschall (out)
- M. Servais (out)
- M. Luongo (doubtful)
Derby
- P. Agyemang (out)
- E. Cashin (out)
- M. Clarke (out)
- C. Forsyth (out)
- S. Langas (out)
- D. Murkin (out)
- D. Sanderson (suspended)
- C. Taylor (out)
Most regular starters
Millwall
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Neghli5/5
- C. Taylor5/5
- D. Mazou-Sacko5/5
- J. Cooper5/5
- J. Metcalfe5/5
- L. Dykes5/5
- Z. Sturge5/5
- F. Marschall4/5
- K. Lisbie4/5
- M. Sykes3/5
- J. Osei-Tutu2/5
Derby
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Clark5/5
- C. Morris5/5
- D. Ozoh5/5
- D. Sanderson5/5
- J. Ward5/5
- R. Hedges5/5
- S. Szmodics5/5
- J. Vickers4/5
- A. Mowatt3/5
- M. Fuseini3/5
- S. Langas3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Stoke City 2-0 PrestonOct 31, 2026
- Norwich 3-2 WatfordOct 31, 2026
- Lincoln 1-3 BirminghamOct 31, 2026
- Bolton 2-3 Bristol CityOct 31, 2026
- Southampton 4-1 QPROct 31, 2026
- Wolves 3-0 CardiffOct 31, 2026
- West Ham 1-3 West BromOct 31, 2026
- Middlesbrough 3-0 CharltonOct 31, 2026
- Swansea 4-0 BlackburnOct 31, 2026
- Burnley 0-0 PortsmouthOct 31, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Millwall vs Derby prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Millwall a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Derby 18%. Millwall are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Millwall vs Derby?
1-0 (12.6%), followed by 2-0 (11.2%), 1-1 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Derby?
The probability that both Millwall and Derby score is 48%. Millwall have a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Derby 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Millwall vs Derby?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.78 for Millwall, 0.87 for Derby). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Millwall vs Derby played?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 15:00 (UK time), Championship, matchday 13. Venue: The Den, London.
What form are Millwall and Derby in?
Millwall: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Derby: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Millwall, 0 for Derby and 1 draw. The most recent ended Millwall 1-0 Derby (Mar 10, 2026).
What was the Millwall vs Derby result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Millwall 4-1 Derby. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Millwall was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The model considered this score unlikely (2.6%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (48%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (49%): missed.
How is the Millwall vs Derby prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.78 for Millwall, 0.87 for Derby) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Millwall predictions
- All Derby predictions
- Championship predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology