AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Eritrea vs South Africa prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Eritrea take on South Africa on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Al Salam Stadium, Cairo. Eritrea start as favourites with a 45% chance of victory; South Africa are given 25% and the draw 30%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (15.9%), followed by 0-0 (13.4%) and 1-1 (13.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Eritrea have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. South Africa have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Eritrea score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; South Africa score 0.60 and concede 1.00.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Eritrea and South Africa: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Eritrea or draw" stands at 75%, "South Africa or draw" at 55% and "no draw" at 70%.
In short : Eritrea are tipped by our AI model in this Eritrea v South Africa (45%). On recent form, Eritrea have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while South Africa have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Eritrea – South Africa. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (15.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Eritrea 1-0 South Africa | 15.9% |
| Eritrea 0-0 South Africa | 13.4% |
| Eritrea 1-1 South Africa | 13.1% |
| Eritrea 0-1 South Africa | 11.0% |
| Eritrea 2-0 South Africa | 9.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.19 expected goals for Eritrea and 0.82 for South Africa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 33% and "both teams to score" at 39%. Few goals are expected here. Eritrea keep a clean sheet in 44% of scenarios, South Africa in 30%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Eritrea expected goals | 1.19 |
| South Africa expected goals | 0.82 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% |
| Eritrea clean sheet | 44% |
| South Africa clean sheet | 30% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Eritrea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-0 | W |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Sudan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Dec 19, 2019 | Uganda · CECAFA Senior Challenge Cup | 0-3 | L |
South Africa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 25, 2026 | South Korea · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Czechia · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Jamaica · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Eritrea and South Africa: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Eritrea
No absences reported.
South Africa
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
South Africa
Starts over the last 4 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Modiba4/4
- I. Okon4/4
- K. Mudau4/4
- M. Mbokazi4/4
- R. Williams4/4
- O. Appollis3/4
- T. Maseko3/4
- T. Mokoena3/4
- Y. Sithole3/4
- E. Makgopa2/4
- I. Rayners2/4
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Eritrea vs South Africa prediction?
Our AI gives Eritrea a 45% chance of winning, the draw 30% and South Africa 25%. Eritrea are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Eritrea vs South Africa?
1-0 (15.9%), followed by 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.0%) and 2-0 (9.5%).
Will both teams score in Eritrea vs South Africa?
The probability that both Eritrea and South Africa score is 39%. Eritrea have a 44% chance of keeping a clean sheet, South Africa 30%.
How many goals should we expect in Eritrea vs South Africa?
The model expects 2.01 goals (1.19 for Eritrea, 0.82 for South Africa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 60%, over 2.5 goals 33%, over 3.5 goals 15%.
When and where is Eritrea vs South Africa played?
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Al Salam Stadium, Cairo.
What form are Eritrea and South Africa in?
Eritrea: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). South Africa: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 5 conceded).
How is the Eritrea vs South Africa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.19 for Eritrea, 0.82 for South Africa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Eritrea predictions
- All South Africa predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology