AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Wednesday, September 30, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Eritrea vs South Africa: 0-5 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Eritrea 0-5 South Africa. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for South Africa at 75%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
Match analysis
Eritrea and South Africa met on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Al Salam Stadium, Cairo. Before kick-off, our model gave Eritrea a 9% chance of winning, the draw 16% and South Africa 75%. On the correct score, 0-2 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%) and 0-3 (10.4%).
Over their last 5 matches, Eritrea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, South Africa have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Eritrea score 1.00 and concede 0.80 goals per game; South Africa score 0.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Eritrea sit 2nd with 1 points from 1 games, South Africa 1st with 3 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Eritrea and South Africa: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Eritrea or draw" stands at 25%, "South Africa or draw" at 91% and "no draw" at 84%.
In short : South Africa are tipped by our AI model in this Eritrea v South Africa (75%). On recent form, Eritrea have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while South Africa have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Eritrea – South Africa. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Eritrea 0-2 South Africa | 13.1% |
| Eritrea 0-1 South Africa | 11.0% |
| Eritrea 0-3 South Africa | 10.4% |
| Eritrea 1-2 South Africa | 9.1% |
| Eritrea 1-1 South Africa | 7.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.69 expected goals for Eritrea and 2.38 for South Africa, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 45%. Goals look likely in this one. Eritrea keep a clean sheet in 9% of scenarios, South Africa in 50%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Eritrea expected goals | 0.69 |
| South Africa expected goals | 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| Eritrea clean sheet | 9% |
| South Africa clean sheet | 50% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Eritrea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kenya · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-0 | W |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Sudan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
South Africa
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Guinea · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 25, 2026 | South Korea · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Czechia · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eritrea | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| South Africa | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Eritrea and South Africa: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Eritrea
No absences reported.
South Africa
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Eritrea
Starts over the last 1 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Sulieman1/1
- Ablelom Teklezgi1/1
- Esrom Yohannes1/1
- F. Gerezgiher1/1
- J. Ali1/1
- Jonas Idris Ibrahim1/1
- Malik Abdulrahman1/1
- N. Girmai Netabay1/1
- Namrud Embaye1/1
- T. Tekie1/1
- V. Fors1/1
South Africa
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Modiba5/5
- I. Okon5/5
- R. Williams5/5
- K. Mudau4/5
- M. Mbokazi4/5
- O. Appollis4/5
- T. Maseko4/5
- T. Mokoena4/5
- I. Rayners3/5
- R. Mofokeng3/5
- Y. Sithole3/5
Other matches in this competition
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda 1-0 LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau 3-0 NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Somalia 0-2 Ivory CoastSep 29, 2026
- Liberia 0-1 MaliSep 29, 2026
- Benin 2-1 MauritaniaSep 29, 2026
- Gabon 2-0 NigerSep 29, 2026
- Congo 1-1 CameroonSep 29, 2026
- Guinea 1-0 KenyaOct 1, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Eritrea vs South Africa prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Eritrea a 9% chance of winning, the draw 16% and South Africa 75%. South Africa are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-5.
What is the most likely correct score for Eritrea vs South Africa?
0-2 (13.1%), followed by 0-1 (11.0%), 0-3 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.1%) and 1-1 (7.6%).
Will both teams score in Eritrea vs South Africa?
The probability that both Eritrea and South Africa score is 45%. Eritrea have a 9% chance of keeping a clean sheet, South Africa 50%.
How many goals should we expect in Eritrea vs South Africa?
The model expects 3.07 goals (0.69 for Eritrea, 2.38 for South Africa). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is Eritrea vs South Africa played?
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Al Salam Stadium, Cairo.
What form are Eritrea and South Africa in?
Eritrea: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 4 conceded). South Africa: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded).
What was the Eritrea vs South Africa result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Eritrea 0-5 South Africa. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for South Africa at 75%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.0%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (45%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
How is the Eritrea vs South Africa prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.69 for Eritrea, 2.38 for South Africa) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Eritrea predictions
- All South Africa predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology