AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Guinea vs Kenya prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Guinea take on Kenya on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), a AFCON 2027 Qualifiers fixture. Venue: Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry. The edge goes to Guinea (58%), ahead of the draw (23%) and a Kenya win (19%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (10.9%) and 2-0 (10.6%).
Guinea are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 8 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Kenya have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 4. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Guinea score 1.60 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Kenya score 2.00 and concede 0.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Guinea and Kenya: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Guinea or draw" stands at 81%, "Kenya or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Our model backs Guinea to edge Kenya (58% probability). On recent form, Guinea have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Kenya have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 51%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Guinea – Kenya. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Guinea 1-0 Kenya | 11.7% |
| Guinea 1-1 Kenya | 10.9% |
| Guinea 2-0 Kenya | 10.6% |
| Guinea 2-1 Kenya | 9.8% |
| Guinea 0-0 Kenya | 6.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.73 goals in total (1.80 for Guinea, 0.93 for Kenya): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 51%. Guinea keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Kenya in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Guinea expected goals | 1.80 |
| Kenya expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Guinea clean sheet | 40% |
| Kenya clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Guinea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Botswana · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 2-2 | D |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Mozambique · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Algeria · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Somalia · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 3-0 | W |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Algeria · African Nations Championship | 1-1 | D |
Kenya
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada · FIFA Series | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Ivory Coast · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 0-3 | L |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Burundi · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Seychelles · World Cup Qualifiers (Africa) | 5-0 | W |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Guinea and Kenya: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Guinea
No absences reported.
Kenya
No absences reported.
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Guinea vs Kenya prediction?
Our AI gives Guinea a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Kenya 19%. Guinea are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Guinea vs Kenya?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.5%).
Will both teams score in Guinea vs Kenya?
The probability that both Guinea and Kenya score is 51%. Guinea have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kenya 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Guinea vs Kenya?
The model expects 2.73 goals (1.80 for Guinea, 0.93 for Kenya). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 76%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Guinea vs Kenya played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry.
What form are Guinea and Kenya in?
Guinea: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 4 conceded). Kenya: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).
How is the Guinea vs Kenya prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.80 for Guinea, 0.93 for Kenya) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Guinea predictions
- All Kenya predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology