AFCON 2027 Qualifiers· Kick-off : Thursday, October 1, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Guinea vs Kenya: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Guinea 1-0 Kenya. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Guinea was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (19.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (32%): correct.
Match analysis
Guinea vs Kenya was played on Thursday, October 1, 2026 (AFCON 2027 Qualifiers). Venue: Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry. Before kick-off, our model gave Guinea a 59% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Kenya 14%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (19.9%), ahead of 2-0 (14.3%) and 0-0 (13.9%).
Guinea have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Kenya are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 10 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Kenya. On average Guinea score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Kenya score 2.00 and concede 0.60. In the table, Guinea sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Kenya 3rd with 1 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Guinea and Kenya: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Guinea or draw" stands at 86%, "Kenya or draw" at 41% and "no draw" at 73%.
In short : Our model backs Guinea to edge Kenya (59% probability). On recent form, Guinea have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Kenya have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Guinea – Kenya. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (19.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 67% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Guinea 1-0 Kenya | 19.9% |
| Guinea 2-0 Kenya | 14.3% |
| Guinea 0-0 Kenya | 13.9% |
| Guinea 1-1 Kenya | 10.8% |
| Guinea 2-1 Kenya | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.97 goals in total (1.43 for Guinea, 0.54 for Kenya): over 2.5 goals has a 32% probability and both teams to score 32%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Guinea keep a clean sheet in 58% of scenarios, Kenya in 24%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Guinea expected goals | 1.43 |
| Kenya expected goals | 0.54 |
| Both teams to score | 32% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Guinea clean sheet | 58% |
| Kenya clean sheet | 24% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Guinea
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | South Africa · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Benin · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Togo · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Niger · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Kenya
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Eritrea · AFCON 2027 Qualifiers | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Lesotho · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada · FIFA Series | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenya | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Guinea and Kenya: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Guinea
No absences reported.
Kenya
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Guinea
Starts over the last 3 matches (official line-ups).
- S. Sylla5/3
- I. Fofana3/3
- L. Kourouma2/3
- M. Konate2/3
- M. Soumah2/3
- O. Camara2/3
- S. Cisse2/3
- S. Guirassy2/3
- A. Balde1/3
- A. Camara1/3
- A. Diawara1/3
Kenya
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- R. Onyango5/5
- F. Odhiambo4/5
- M. Okwaro3/5
- R. Odada3/5
- R. Ogam3/5
- A. Odhiambo2/5
- A. Omija2/5
- B. S. Omondi2/5
- C. Oduor2/5
- J. Ochieng2/5
- M. Bajaber2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Zambia 2-0 TogoSep 29, 2026
- Uganda 1-0 LibyaSep 29, 2026
- Guinea-Bissau 3-0 NigeriaSep 29, 2026
- Ghana 2-4 GambiaSep 29, 2026
- Somalia 0-2 Ivory CoastSep 29, 2026
- Liberia 0-1 MaliSep 29, 2026
- Benin 2-1 MauritaniaSep 29, 2026
- Gabon 2-0 NigerSep 29, 2026
- Congo 1-1 CameroonSep 29, 2026
- Eritrea 0-5 South AfricaSep 30, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Guinea vs Kenya prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Guinea a 59% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Kenya 14%. Guinea are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Guinea vs Kenya?
1-0 (19.9%), followed by 2-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (10.8%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Guinea vs Kenya?
The probability that both Guinea and Kenya score is 32%. Guinea have a 58% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Kenya 24%.
How many goals should we expect in Guinea vs Kenya?
The model expects 1.97 goals (1.43 for Guinea, 0.54 for Kenya). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 59%, over 2.5 goals 32%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Guinea vs Kenya played?
Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), AFCON 2027 Qualifiers. Venue: Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry.
What form are Guinea and Kenya in?
Guinea: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Kenya: 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 3 conceded).
What was the Guinea vs Kenya result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Guinea 1-0 Kenya. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Guinea was the model's favourite outcome (59%). The exact score 1-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (19.9%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (32%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (32%): correct.
How is the Guinea vs Kenya prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.43 for Guinea, 0.54 for Kenya) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Guinea predictions
- All Kenya predictions
- AFCON 2027 Qualifiers predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology