UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Albania vs San Marino prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Albania take on San Marino on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Albania start as favourites with a 50% chance of victory; San Marino are given 25% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Albania have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 1 and conceding 7. San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 13. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Albania score 0.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; San Marino score 0.80 and concede 2.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Albania and San Marino: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Albania or draw" stands at 75%, "San Marino or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Our model backs Albania to edge San Marino (50% probability). On recent form, Albania are struggling (5 losses in 5) while San Marino are struggling (4 losses in 5). Both teams could find the net (BTTS at 52%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Albania – San Marino. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Albania 1-1 San Marino | 11.8% |
| Albania 1-0 San Marino | 11.4% |
| Albania 2-1 San Marino | 9.5% |
| Albania 2-0 San Marino | 9.2% |
| Albania 0-1 San Marino | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Albania and 1.04 for San Marino, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Albania keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, San Marino in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Albania expected goals | 1.61 |
| San Marino expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Albania clean sheet | 35% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | England · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 | L |
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-7 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Albania and San Marino: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Albania
No absences reported.
San Marino
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Albania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Hoxha5/5
- B. Djimsiti5/5
- E. Hysaj5/5
- K. Asllani5/5
- Q. Laci5/5
- M. Mitaj4/5
- M. Uzuni4/5
- N. Bajrami3/5
- T. Strakosha3/5
- Y. Ramadani3/5
- A. Ajeti2/5
San Marino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Colombo5/5
- N. Giacopetti5/5
- A. Tosi4/5
- L. Capicchioni4/5
- M. Cevoli4/5
- N. Nanni4/5
- A. Golinucci3/5
- F. Fabbri3/5
- L. Lazzari3/5
- M. Pasolini3/5
- S. Pancotti3/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Croatia – SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus – FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland – SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia – IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova – SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England – CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg – BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Albania vs San Marino prediction?
Our AI gives Albania a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Marino 25%. Albania are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Albania vs San Marino?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Albania vs San Marino?
The probability that both Albania and San Marino score is 52%. Albania have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, San Marino 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Albania vs San Marino?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Albania, 1.04 for San Marino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Albania vs San Marino played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Albania and San Marino in?
Albania: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (1 scored, 7 conceded). San Marino: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 13 conceded).
How is the Albania vs San Marino prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Albania, 1.04 for San Marino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Albania predictions
- All San Marino predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology