UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Albania vs San Marino: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Albania 2-1 San Marino. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Albania at 97%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (24%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): correct.
Match analysis
Albania and San Marino met on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Arena Kombëtare, Tirana. Before kick-off, our model gave Albania a 97% chance of winning, the draw 2% and San Marino 1%. On the correct score, 4-0 comes out on top (14.4%), followed by 3-0 (13.0%) and 5-0 (12.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, Albania have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 4. San Marino have not won any of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 5 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 18. Albania therefore arrive in far better shape than San Marino. On average Albania score 1.20 and concede 0.80 goals per game; San Marino score 0.40 and concede 3.60. In the table, Albania sit 2nd with 6 points from 3 games, San Marino 4th with 0 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Albania have averaged 1.15 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.96 for San Marino.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Albania, 0 for San Marino and 0 draws. The most recent ended Albania 5-0 San Marino (Sep 8, 2021). In double chance terms, "Albania or draw" stands at 99%, "San Marino or draw" at 3% and "no draw" at 98%.
In short : Our model backs Albania to edge San Marino (97% probability). In the table, Albania (2nd, 6 pts) host San Marino (4th, 0 pts). The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 85%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Albania – San Marino. 4-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Albania 4-0 San Marino | 14.4% |
| Albania 3-0 San Marino | 13.0% |
| Albania 5-0 San Marino | 12.8% |
| Albania 6-0 San Marino | 9.5% |
| Albania 2-0 San Marino | 8.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 4.45 expected goals for Albania and 0.28 for San Marino, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 85% and "both teams to score" at 24%. Goals look likely in this one. Albania keep a clean sheet in 75% of scenarios, San Marino in 1%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Albania expected goals | 4.45 |
| San Marino expected goals | 0.28 |
| Both teams to score | 24% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 95% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 70% |
| Albania clean sheet | 75% |
| San Marino clean sheet | 1% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Albania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Finland · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | San Marino · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Belarus · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
San Marino
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Belarus · UEFA Nations League | 0-4 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Albania · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Finland · UEFA Nations League | 0-7 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| San Marino | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2021 | Albania 5-0 San Marino | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 31, 2021 | San Marino 0-2 Albania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Albania
No absences reported.
San Marino
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Albania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Djimsiti5/5
- K. Asllani5/5
- A. Hoxha4/5
- E. Hysaj4/5
- M. Mitaj4/5
- Y. Ramadani4/5
- A. Ismajli3/5
- A. Sherri3/5
- E. Muçi3/5
- R. Manaj3/5
- A. Mehmeti2/5
San Marino
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Colombo5/5
- L. Capicchioni5/5
- M. Cevoli5/5
- N. Nanni5/5
- M. Pasolini4/5
- N. Giacopetti4/5
- S. Zannoni4/5
- A. Tosi3/5
- G. Benvenuti3/5
- L. Lazzari3/5
- A. Golinucci2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Albania vs San Marino prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Albania a 97% chance of winning, the draw 2% and San Marino 1%. Albania are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Albania vs San Marino?
4-0 (14.4%), followed by 3-0 (13.0%), 5-0 (12.8%), 6-0 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.7%).
Will both teams score in Albania vs San Marino?
The probability that both Albania and San Marino score is 24%. Albania have a 75% chance of keeping a clean sheet, San Marino 1%.
How many goals should we expect in Albania vs San Marino?
The model expects 4.73 goals (4.45 for Albania, 0.28 for San Marino). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 95%, over 2.5 goals 85%, over 3.5 goals 70%.
When and where is Albania vs San Marino played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Arena Kombëtare, Tirana.
What form are Albania and San Marino in?
Albania: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 4 conceded). San Marino: 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 18 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Albania and San Marino?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Albania, 0 for San Marino and 0 draws. The most recent ended Albania 5-0 San Marino (Sep 8, 2021).
What was the Albania vs San Marino result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Albania 2-1 San Marino. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Albania at 97%. The model considered this score unlikely (2.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (24%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (85%): correct.
How is the Albania vs San Marino prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (4.45 for Albania, 0.28 for San Marino) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Albania predictions
- All San Marino predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology