UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Croatia vs Spain: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Croatia 1-2 Spain. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (78%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): correct.
Match analysis
Croatia vs Spain was played on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split. Before kick-off, our model gave Croatia a 8% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Spain 78%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (11.8%), ahead of 0-3 (10.5%) and 0-1 (8.9%).
Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 15. Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 13 and conceding 4. Recent momentum is clearly with Spain. On average Croatia score 1.20 and concede 3.00 goals per game; Spain score 2.60 and concede 0.80. In the table, Croatia sit 3rd with 3 points from 3 games, Spain 1st with 9 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Croatia have averaged 1.05 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.85 for Spain.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Croatia, 3 for Spain and 1 draw. The most recent ended Spain 3-0 Croatia (Jun 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Croatia or draw" stands at 22%, "Spain or draw" at 92% and "no draw" at 86%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this Croatia v Spain (78%). In the table, Croatia (3rd, 3 pts) host Spain (1st, 9 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Croatia – Spain. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia 0-2 Spain | 11.8% |
| Croatia 0-3 Spain | 10.5% |
| Croatia 0-1 Spain | 8.9% |
| Croatia 1-2 Spain | 8.8% |
| Croatia 1-3 Spain | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.39 goals in total (0.74 for Croatia, 2.65 for Spain): over 2.5 goals has a 66% probability and both teams to score 49%. Everything points to an open game. Croatia keep a clean sheet in 7% of scenarios, Spain in 48%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Croatia expected goals | 0.74 |
| Spain expected goals | 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 49% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 7% |
| Spain clean sheet | 48% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | England · UEFA Nations League | 0-7 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Spain · UEFA Nations League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Czechia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Czechia · UEFA Nations League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Croatia · UEFA Nations League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | England · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Spain | 1 | 9 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2024 | Spain 3-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| Jun 18, 2023 | Croatia 0-0 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 28, 2021 | Croatia 3-5 Spain | Euro Championship |
| Nov 15, 2018 | Croatia 3-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 11, 2018 | Spain 6-0 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Croatia
No absences reported.
Spain
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Croatia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Livaković3/5
- I. Perišić3/5
- J. Gvardiol3/5
- M. Baturina3/5
- M. Kovačić3/5
- P. Sučić3/5
- A. Budimir2/5
- D. Livakovic2/5
- F. Ivanović2/5
- I. Perisic2/5
- J. Stanisic2/5
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri4/5
- A. Baena2/5
- A. Laporte2/5
- Álex Baena2/5
- Aymeric Laporte2/5
- D. Olmo2/5
- Dani Olmo2/5
- F. Ruiz2/5
- Fabián Ruiz2/5
- M. Cucurella2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Croatia vs Spain prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Croatia a 8% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Spain 78%. Spain are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Croatia vs Spain?
0-2 (11.8%), followed by 0-3 (10.5%), 0-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%) and 1-3 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Croatia vs Spain?
The probability that both Croatia and Spain score is 49%. Croatia have a 7% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Spain 48%.
How many goals should we expect in Croatia vs Spain?
The model expects 3.39 goals (0.74 for Croatia, 2.65 for Spain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 85%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 44%.
When and where is Croatia vs Spain played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split.
What form are Croatia and Spain in?
Croatia: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 15 conceded). Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Croatia and Spain?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Croatia, 3 for Spain and 1 draw. The most recent ended Spain 3-0 Croatia (Jun 15, 2024).
What was the Croatia vs Spain result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Croatia 1-2 Spain. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Spain was the model's favourite outcome (78%). The final score ranked 4th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (49%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (66%): correct.
How is the Croatia vs Spain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.74 for Croatia, 2.65 for Spain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Croatia predictions
- All Spain predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology