UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Croatia vs Spain prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Croatia vs Spain match is scheduled on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Spain (57%), ahead of the draw (22%) and a Croatia win (21%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.3%), ahead of 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Spain are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 1. Recent momentum is clearly with Spain. On average Croatia score 1.60 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Spain score 1.80 and concede 0.20. Over their recent games, Croatia have averaged 1.03 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.04 for Spain.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Croatia and Spain: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Croatia or draw" stands at 43%, "Spain or draw" at 79% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Spain are tipped by our AI model in this Croatia v Spain (57%). On recent form, Croatia have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Spain are in good shape (5 wins in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Croatia – Spain. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.3%); the 5 scores below add up to 45% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia 1-1 Spain | 10.3% |
| Croatia 1-2 Spain | 9.9% |
| Croatia 0-1 Spain | 9.5% |
| Croatia 0-2 Spain | 9.1% |
| Croatia 1-3 Spain | 6.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.01 goals in total (1.09 for Croatia, 1.92 for Spain): over 2.5 goals has a 58% probability and both teams to score 57%. Croatia keep a clean sheet in 15% of scenarios, Spain in 34%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Croatia expected goals | 1.09 |
| Spain expected goals | 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% |
| Croatia clean sheet | 15% |
| Spain clean sheet | 34% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Croatia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Panama · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 2-4 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Spain
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 14, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Belgium · FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | W |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Portugal · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Austria · FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Spain | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Croatia and Spain: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Croatia
No absences reported.
Spain
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Croatia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Livakovic5/5
- I. Perisic5/5
- J. Stanisic5/5
- L. Modric5/5
- J. Sutalo4/5
- M. Baturina4/5
- M. Kovacic4/5
- M. Pongracic4/5
- A. Budimir3/5
- J. Gvardiol3/5
- M. Pasalic3/5
Spain
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Lamine Yamal5/5
- Rodri5/5
- A. Baena4/5
- A. Laporte4/5
- D. Olmo4/5
- M. Cucurella4/5
- M. Oyarzabal4/5
- P. Cubarsi4/5
- P. Porro4/5
- U. Simon4/5
- F. Ruiz2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Croatia vs Spain prediction?
Our AI gives Croatia a 21% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Spain 57%. Spain are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Croatia vs Spain?
1-1 (10.3%), followed by 1-2 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.1%) and 1-3 (6.3%).
Will both teams score in Croatia vs Spain?
The probability that both Croatia and Spain score is 57%. Croatia have a 15% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Spain 34%.
How many goals should we expect in Croatia vs Spain?
The model expects 3.01 goals (1.09 for Croatia, 1.92 for Spain). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 80%, over 2.5 goals 58%, over 3.5 goals 36%.
When and where is Croatia vs Spain played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Croatia and Spain in?
Croatia: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded). Spain: 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 1 conceded).
How is the Croatia vs Spain prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.09 for Croatia, 1.92 for Spain) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Croatia predictions
- All Spain predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology