UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Italy vs Türkiye prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Italy take on Türkiye on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Türkiye start as favourites with a 46% chance of victory; Italy are given 32% and the draw 22%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (8.7%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Italy score 1.20 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Türkiye score 1.80 and concede 1.20.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Italy, 0 for Türkiye and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024). In double chance terms, "Italy or draw" stands at 54%, "Türkiye or draw" at 68% and "no draw" at 78%.
In short : Türkiye are tipped by our AI model in this Italy v Türkiye (46%). On recent form, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Türkiye have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Italy – Türkiye. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (8.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 37% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Italy 1-1 Türkiye | 8.7% |
| Italy 1-2 Türkiye | 8.6% |
| Italy 2-1 Türkiye | 7.1% |
| Italy 2-2 Türkiye | 7.1% |
| Italy 1-3 Türkiye | 5.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.64 expected goals for Italy and 1.99 for Türkiye, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 70% and "both teams to score" at 70%. Goals look likely in this one. Italy keep a clean sheet in 14% of scenarios, Türkiye in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Italy expected goals | 1.64 |
| Türkiye expected goals | 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 70% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% |
| Italy clean sheet | 14% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Norway · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 1, 2026 | North Macedonia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Türkiye | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2024 | Italy 0-0 Türkiye | International Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Türkiye 2-3 Italy | International Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Türkiye 0-3 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Italy
No absences reported.
Türkiye
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- A. Bastoni3/5
- F. Dimarco3/5
- F. Esposito3/5
- G. Mancini3/5
- M. Locatelli3/5
- M. Politano3/5
- M. Retegui3/5
- N. Barella3/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bardakci4/5
- A. Guler4/5
- O. Kokcu4/5
- U. Cakir4/5
- B. Yilmaz3/5
- E. Elmali3/5
- I. Yuksek3/5
- O. Kabak3/5
- Z. Celik3/5
- D. Gul2/5
- F. Kadioglu2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Italy vs Türkiye prediction?
Our AI gives Italy a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Türkiye 46%. Türkiye are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Italy vs Türkiye?
1-1 (8.7%), followed by 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (7.1%) and 1-3 (5.7%).
Will both teams score in Italy vs Türkiye?
The probability that both Italy and Türkiye score is 70%. Italy have a 14% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Türkiye 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Italy vs Türkiye?
The model expects 3.63 goals (1.64 for Italy, 1.99 for Türkiye). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 88%, over 2.5 goals 70%, over 3.5 goals 49%.
When and where is Italy vs Türkiye played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Italy and Türkiye in?
Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 5 conceded). Türkiye: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Italy and Türkiye?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Italy, 0 for Türkiye and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024).
How is the Italy vs Türkiye prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Italy, 1.99 for Türkiye) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Italy predictions
- All Türkiye predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology