UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Italy vs Türkiye: 3-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Italy 3-1 Türkiye. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Italy at 71%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
Match analysis
Italy and Türkiye met on Monday, October 5, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna. Before kick-off, our model gave Italy a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Türkiye 11%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%) and 3-0 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Italy have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 4. Türkiye have won just one of their last 5 matches (0 draws, 4 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 11. Italy therefore arrive in far better shape than Türkiye. On average Italy score 1.40 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Türkiye score 0.80 and concede 2.20. In the table, Italy sit 3rd with 4 points from 3 games, Türkiye 4th with 0 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Italy, 0 for Türkiye and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024). In double chance terms, "Italy or draw" stands at 89%, "Türkiye or draw" at 29% and "no draw" at 82%.
In short : Italy are tipped by our AI model in this Italy v Türkiye (71%). In the table, Italy (3rd, 4 pts) host Türkiye (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Italy – Türkiye. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (12.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Italy 2-0 Türkiye | 12.9% |
| Italy 1-0 Türkiye | 11.7% |
| Italy 3-0 Türkiye | 9.5% |
| Italy 2-1 Türkiye | 9.4% |
| Italy 1-1 Türkiye | 8.6% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.20 expected goals for Italy and 0.73 for Türkiye, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 56% and "both teams to score" at 46%. Italy keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Türkiye in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Italy expected goals | 2.20 |
| Türkiye expected goals | 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% |
| Italy clean sheet | 48% |
| Türkiye clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Italy
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | France · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Türkiye · UEFA Nations League | 4-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Belgium · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Türkiye
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Belgium · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Italy · UEFA Nations League | 1-4 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | France · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 3-2 | W |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2024 | Italy 0-0 Türkiye | International Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Türkiye 2-3 Italy | International Friendlies |
| Jun 11, 2021 | Türkiye 0-3 Italy | Euro Championship |
Out and doubtful
Italy
No absences reported.
Türkiye
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Italy
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- F. Esposito5/5
- G. Donnarumma5/5
- S. Tonali3/5
- A. Bastoni2/5
- C. Ndour2/5
- D. Bartesaghi2/5
- D. Frattesi2/5
- F. C. Chiarodia2/5
- G. Scalvini2/5
- L. Koleosho2/5
- L. Lipani2/5
Türkiye
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Demiral4/5
- A. Güler3/5
- B. Yılmaz3/5
- O. Aydın3/5
- Z. Çelik3/5
- A. Bardakci2/5
- A. Bardakcı2/5
- A. Guler2/5
- C. Uzun2/5
- F. Kadıoğlu2/5
- İ. Yüksek2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
- Romania 0-1 SwedenOct 5, 2026
- Montenegro 0-0 ArmeniaOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 PolandOct 5, 2026
- Ukraine 1-2 HungaryOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Italy vs Türkiye prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Italy a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Türkiye 11%. Italy are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Italy vs Türkiye?
2-0 (12.9%), followed by 1-0 (11.7%), 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-1 (8.6%).
Will both teams score in Italy vs Türkiye?
The probability that both Italy and Türkiye score is 46%. Italy have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Türkiye 11%.
How many goals should we expect in Italy vs Türkiye?
The model expects 2.93 goals (2.20 for Italy, 0.73 for Türkiye). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 79%, over 2.5 goals 56%, over 3.5 goals 34%.
When and where is Italy vs Türkiye played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna.
What form are Italy and Türkiye in?
Italy: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 4 conceded). Türkiye: 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Italy and Türkiye?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 2 wins for Italy, 0 for Türkiye and 1 draw. The most recent ended Italy 0-0 Türkiye (Jun 4, 2024).
What was the Italy vs Türkiye result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Italy 3-1 Türkiye. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for Italy at 71%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.9%), behind 2-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (56%): correct.
How is the Italy vs Türkiye prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.20 for Italy, 0.73 for Türkiye) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Italy predictions
- All Türkiye predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology