UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
France vs Belgium: 4-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: France 4-1 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 67%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
Match analysis
France and Belgium met on Monday, October 5, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stade de France, Paris. Before kick-off, our model gave France a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Belgium 14%. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (11.0%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.8%).
Over their last 5 matches, France have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Both sides come in with similar form. On average France score 1.40 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Belgium score 2.00 and concede 0.80. In the table, France sit 1st with 7 points from 3 games, Belgium 2nd with 6 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, France have averaged 1.58 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.32 for Belgium.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for France, 0 for Belgium and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 86%, "Belgium or draw" at 33% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Our model backs France to edge Belgium (67% probability). On recent form, France have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Belgium have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 59%).
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as France – Belgium. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.0%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| France 2-0 Belgium | 11.0% |
| France 1-0 Belgium | 10.1% |
| France 2-1 Belgium | 9.8% |
| France 1-1 Belgium | 9.0% |
| France 3-0 Belgium | 8.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.19 expected goals for France and 0.89 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 59% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Goals look likely in this one. France keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Belgium in 11%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| France expected goals | 2.19 |
| Belgium expected goals | 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% |
| France clean sheet | 41% |
| Belgium clean sheet | 11% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
France
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Italy · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Belgium · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Türkiye · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jul 18, 2026 | England · FIFA World Cup | 4-6 | L |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
Belgium
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Türkiye · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 28, 2026 | France · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Italy · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Spain · FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 4-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| Belgium | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Belgium 1-2 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2024 | France 2-0 Belgium | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | France 1-0 Belgium | Euro Championship |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Belgium 2-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 10, 2018 | France 1-0 Belgium | FIFA World Cup |
Out and doubtful
France
No absences reported.
Belgium
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
France
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Maignan5/5
- A. Rabiot4/5
- M. Olise4/5
- D. Upamecano3/5
- M. Lacroix3/5
- R. Cherki3/5
- A. Truffert2/5
- B. Barcola2/5
- D. Doué2/5
- J. Jacquet2/5
- K. Mbappe2/5
Belgium
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Mechele5/5
- C. De Ketelaere5/5
- N. Ngoy5/5
- T. Castagne5/5
- K. De Bruyne4/5
- M. De Cuyper4/5
- Y. Tielemans4/5
- M. Godts3/5
- N. Raskin3/5
- S. Lammens3/5
- D. Lukebakio2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Romania 0-1 SwedenOct 5, 2026
- Montenegro 0-0 ArmeniaOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 PolandOct 5, 2026
- Ukraine 1-2 HungaryOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the France vs Belgium prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave France a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Belgium 14%. France are therefore favourites. Final score: 4-1.
What is the most likely correct score for France vs Belgium?
2-0 (11.0%), followed by 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.0%) and 3-0 (8.0%).
Will both teams score in France vs Belgium?
The probability that both France and Belgium score is 52%. France have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 11%.
How many goals should we expect in France vs Belgium?
The model expects 3.08 goals (2.19 for France, 0.89 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 81%, over 2.5 goals 59%, over 3.5 goals 37%.
When and where is France vs Belgium played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stade de France, Paris.
What form are France and Belgium in?
France: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 9 conceded). Belgium: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 4 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between France and Belgium?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for France, 0 for Belgium and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024).
What was the France vs Belgium result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: France 4-1 Belgium. The AI called the outcome correctly: it rated victory for France at 67%. The model considered this score unlikely (3.9%). On goals, the model expected both teams to score (52%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (59%): correct.
How is the France vs Belgium prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.19 for France, 0.89 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All France predictions
- All Belgium predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology