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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

France vs Belgium prediction: correct score and AI tips

FranceFrance–BelgiumBelgium

Match analysis

UEFA Nations League: France vs Belgium kicks off on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). France start as favourites with a 56% chance of victory; Belgium are given 26% and the draw 18%. On the correct score, 2-1 comes out on top (7.8%), followed by 2-2 (6.7%) and 3-1 (6.6%).

Over their last 5 matches, France have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Over their last 5 matches, Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average France score 2.00 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Belgium score 2.60 and concede 1.20. Over their recent games, France have averaged 2.30 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.92 for Belgium.

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for France, 0 for Belgium and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024). In double chance terms, "France or draw" stands at 74%, "Belgium or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 82%.

In short : Our model backs France to edge Belgium (56% probability). On recent form, France have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Belgium have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. The model expects goals (over 2.5 at 80%).

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

56%
France (Win)
18%
Draw
26%
Belgium (Win)

Double chance

74%
France or draw
44%
Belgium or draw
82%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as France – Belgium. 2-1 is the single most likely scoreline (7.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 33% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
France 2-1 Belgium7.8%
France 2-2 Belgium6.7%
France 3-1 Belgium6.6%
France 1-1 Belgium6.1%
France 3-2 Belgium5.7%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

With 2.55 expected goals for France and 1.73 for Belgium, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 80% and "both teams to score" at 76%. Goals look likely in this one. France keep a clean sheet in 18% of scenarios, Belgium in 8%.

Probability
France expected goals2.55
Belgium expected goals1.73
Both teams to score76%
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals62%
France clean sheet18%
Belgium clean sheet8%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

France

DateOpponentScore
Jul 18, 2026England · FIFA World Cup4-6L
Jul 14, 2026Spain · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jul 9, 2026Morocco · FIFA World Cup2-0W
Jul 4, 2026Paraguay · FIFA World Cup1-0W
Jun 30, 2026Sweden · FIFA World Cup3-0W

Belgium

DateOpponentScore
Jul 10, 2026Spain · FIFA World Cup1-2L
Jul 7, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup4-1W
Jul 1, 2026Senegal · FIFA World Cup3-2W
Jun 27, 2026New Zealand · FIFA World Cup5-1W
Jun 21, 2026Iran · FIFA World Cup0-0D

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
France100
Belgium400

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2024Belgium 1-2 FranceUEFA Nations League
Sep 9, 2024France 2-0 BelgiumUEFA Nations League
Jul 1, 2024France 1-0 BelgiumEuro Championship
Oct 7, 2021Belgium 2-3 FranceUEFA Nations League
Jul 10, 2018France 1-0 BelgiumFIFA World Cup

Out and doubtful

France

No absences reported.

Belgium

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

France

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • A. Rabiot4/5
  • D. Upamecano4/5
  • J. Kounde4/5
  • K. Mbappe4/5
  • L. Digne4/5
  • M. Maignan4/5
  • M. Olise4/5
  • O. Dembele4/5
  • W. Saliba4/5
  • B. Barcola3/5
  • A. Tchouameni2/5

Belgium

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • B. Mechele4/5
  • L. Trossard4/5
  • M. De Cuyper4/5
  • T. Courtois4/5
  • Y. Tielemans4/5
  • C. De Ketelaere3/5
  • K. De Bruyne3/5
  • T. Castagne3/5
  • A. Theate2/5
  • H. Vanaken2/5
  • J. Doku2/5

First detailed prediction free, no card required.

See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the France vs Belgium prediction?

Our AI gives France a 56% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Belgium 26%. France are therefore favourites.

What is the most likely correct score for France vs Belgium?

2-1 (7.8%), followed by 2-2 (6.7%), 3-1 (6.6%), 1-1 (6.1%) and 3-2 (5.7%).

Will both teams score in France vs Belgium?

The probability that both France and Belgium score is 76%. France have a 18% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Belgium 8%.

How many goals should we expect in France vs Belgium?

The model expects 4.28 goals (2.55 for France, 1.73 for Belgium). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 93%, over 2.5 goals 80%, over 3.5 goals 62%.

When and where is France vs Belgium played?

Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.

What form are France and Belgium in?

France: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 8 conceded). Belgium: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (13 scored, 6 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between France and Belgium?

In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 5 wins for France, 0 for Belgium and 0 draws. The most recent ended Belgium 1-2 France (Oct 14, 2024).

How is the France vs Belgium prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.55 for France, 1.73 for Belgium) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained