UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Ukraine vs Hungary prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Ukraine vs Hungary match is scheduled on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Ukraine (51%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Hungary win (24%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Ukraine score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Hungary score 1.60 and concede 1.00.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ukraine, 0 for Hungary and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hungary 0-1 Ukraine (Sep 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Ukraine or draw" stands at 76%, "Hungary or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Ukraine are tipped by our AI model in this Ukraine v Hungary (51%). On recent form, Ukraine have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ukraine – Hungary. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ukraine 1-1 Hungary | 11.8% |
| Ukraine 1-0 Hungary | 11.4% |
| Ukraine 2-1 Hungary | 9.5% |
| Ukraine 2-0 Hungary | 9.2% |
| Ukraine 0-1 Hungary | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.65 goals in total (1.61 for Ukraine, 1.04 for Hungary): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Ukraine keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Hungary in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ukraine expected goals | 1.61 |
| Hungary expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 35% |
| Hungary clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-3 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Iceland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-0 | W |
Hungary
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Finland · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hungary | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Hungary 0-1 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Hungary
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Trubin4/5
- I. Zabarnyi4/5
- V. Mykolenko4/5
- V. Tsygankov4/5
- E. Sarapiy3/5
- G. Sudakov3/5
- M. Matviienko3/5
- R. Malinovskyi3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- Y. Yarmolyuk3/5
- I. Kaliuzhnyi2/5
Hungary
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Schafer5/5
- A. Toth5/5
- D. Szoboszlai5/5
- W. Orban5/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- M. Vitalis4/5
- R. Sallai4/5
- B. Toth3/5
- B. Varga3/5
- A. Osvath2/5
- B. Bolla2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
- Cyprus – LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy – TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France – BelgiumOct 5, 2026
- Romania – SwedenOct 5, 2026
- Montenegro – ArmeniaOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina – PolandOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland – GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan – Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania – San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland – North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ukraine vs Hungary prediction?
Our AI gives Ukraine a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Hungary 24%. Ukraine are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Ukraine vs Hungary?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Ukraine vs Hungary?
The probability that both Ukraine and Hungary score is 52%. Ukraine have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hungary 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Ukraine vs Hungary?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Ukraine, 1.04 for Hungary). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Ukraine vs Hungary played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Ukraine and Hungary in?
Ukraine: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Hungary: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ukraine and Hungary?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ukraine, 0 for Hungary and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hungary 0-1 Ukraine (Sep 25, 2026).
How is the Ukraine vs Hungary prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Ukraine, 1.04 for Hungary) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ukraine predictions
- All Hungary predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology