UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Ukraine vs Hungary: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Ukraine 1-2 Hungary. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ukraine (36%), while victory for Hungary was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
Match analysis
Ukraine vs Hungary was played on Monday, October 5, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava. Before kick-off, our model gave Ukraine a 36% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Hungary 32%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.5%), ahead of 0-0 (14.4%) and 1-1 (13.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Ukraine have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Hungary have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Recent momentum is clearly with Hungary. On average Ukraine score 0.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Hungary score 1.20 and concede 0.60. In the table, Ukraine sit 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, Hungary 3rd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Ukraine have averaged 0.38 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.66 for Hungary.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ukraine, 0 for Hungary and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hungary 0-1 Ukraine (Sep 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Ukraine or draw" stands at 68%, "Hungary or draw" at 64% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : Ukraine host Hungary in a tight contest where a draw stays on the table (31%). In the table, Ukraine (2nd, 4 pts) host Hungary (3rd, 4 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Ukraine – Hungary. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 63% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ukraine 1-0 Hungary | 14.5% |
| Ukraine 0-0 Hungary | 14.4% |
| Ukraine 1-1 Hungary | 13.5% |
| Ukraine 0-1 Hungary | 13.4% |
| Ukraine 2-0 Hungary | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.94 goals in total (1.01 for Ukraine, 0.93 for Hungary): over 2.5 goals has a 31% probability and both teams to score 39%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Ukraine keep a clean sheet in 40% of scenarios, Hungary in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Ukraine expected goals | 1.01 |
| Hungary expected goals | 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 39% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% |
| Ukraine clean sheet | 40% |
| Hungary clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Ukraine
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Northern Ireland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Georgia · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Hungary · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Denmark · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Poland · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
Hungary
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Georgia · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Northern Ireland · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ukraine · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Finland · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Hungary | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Hungary 0-1 Ukraine | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Ukraine
No absences reported.
Hungary
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Ukraine
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Sarapiy4/5
- O. Ocheretko4/5
- V. Tsygankov4/5
- A. Trubin3/5
- I. Zabarnyi3/5
- R. Yaremchuk3/5
- V. Mykolenko3/5
- A. Yarmolenko2/5
- D. Riznyk2/5
- G. Sudakov2/5
- H. Sudakov2/5
Hungary
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Szoboszlai5/5
- M. Csinger4/5
- M. Kerkez4/5
- A. Schäfer3/5
- B. Tóth3/5
- D. Lukacs3/5
- W. Orbán3/5
- Á. Csongvai2/5
- A. Osvath2/5
- A. Schafer2/5
- A. Toth2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
- Romania 0-1 SwedenOct 5, 2026
- Montenegro 0-0 ArmeniaOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 PolandOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Ukraine vs Hungary prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Ukraine a 36% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Hungary 32%. Ukraine are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Ukraine vs Hungary?
1-0 (14.5%), followed by 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.4%) and 2-0 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Ukraine vs Hungary?
The probability that both Ukraine and Hungary score is 39%. Ukraine have a 40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Hungary 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Ukraine vs Hungary?
The model expects 1.94 goals (1.01 for Ukraine, 0.93 for Hungary). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 58%, over 2.5 goals 31%, over 3.5 goals 13%.
When and where is Ukraine vs Hungary played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava.
What form are Ukraine and Hungary in?
Ukraine: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 5 conceded). Hungary: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Ukraine and Hungary?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Ukraine, 0 for Hungary and 0 draws. The most recent ended Hungary 0-1 Ukraine (Sep 25, 2026).
What was the Ukraine vs Hungary result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Ukraine 1-2 Hungary. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Ukraine (36%), while victory for Hungary was rated at only 32%. The final score ranked 7th among the most likely scorelines (6.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (39%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (31%): missed.
How is the Ukraine vs Hungary prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.01 for Ukraine, 0.93 for Hungary) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Ukraine predictions
- All Hungary predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology