UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Northern Ireland take on Georgia on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. Our model makes Northern Ireland clear favourites: a 83% chance of winning, against 12% for the draw and 5% for Georgia. On the correct score, 2-0 comes out on top (13.1%), followed by 3-0 (12.4%) and 1-0 (9.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Northern Ireland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Georgia have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Northern Ireland score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Georgia score 1.60 and concede 1.00. In the table, Northern Ireland sit 1st with 3 points from 1 games, Georgia 4th with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Northern Ireland, 0 for Georgia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland (Sep 25, 2026). In double chance terms, "Northern Ireland or draw" stands at 95%, "Georgia or draw" at 17% and "no draw" at 88%.
In short : Northern Ireland are tipped by our AI model in this Northern Ireland v Georgia (83%). In the table, Northern Ireland (1st, 3 pts) host Georgia (4th, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Northern Ireland – Georgia. 2-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 51% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland 2-0 Georgia | 13.1% |
| Northern Ireland 3-0 Georgia | 12.4% |
| Northern Ireland 1-0 Georgia | 9.3% |
| Northern Ireland 4-0 Georgia | 8.7% |
| Northern Ireland 2-1 Georgia | 7.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 2.83 expected goals for Northern Ireland and 0.59 for Georgia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 66% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Goals look likely in this one. Northern Ireland keep a clean sheet in 55% of scenarios, Georgia in 6%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland expected goals | 2.83 |
| Georgia expected goals | 0.59 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Northern Ireland clean sheet | 55% |
| Georgia clean sheet | 6% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Northern Ireland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | France · International Friendlies | 1-3 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Italy · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-2 | L |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Luxembourg · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-0 | W |
Georgia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bahrain · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Israel · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Bulgaria · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-2 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Georgia | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Northern Ireland
No absences reported.
Georgia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Northern Ireland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Galbraith3/5
- I. Price3/5
- J. Donley3/5
- C. Brown2/5
- C. Hazard2/5
- Ciaron Brown2/5
- Isaac Price2/5
- J. Devenny2/5
- Jamie Donley2/5
- Justin Devenny2/5
- P. McNair2/5
Georgia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Giorgi Mamardashvili3/5
- Gizo Mamageishvili3/5
- Ilia Beriashvili3/5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3/5
- Luka Lochoshvili3/5
- Otar Kiteishvili3/5
- Anzor Mekvabishvili2/5
- Georges Mikautadze2/5
- Giorgi Chakvetadze2/5
- Giorgi Kochorashvili2/5
- Giorgi Kvilitaia2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Bosnia & Herzegovina – PolandOct 5, 2026
- Ukraine – HungaryOct 5, 2026
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction?
Our AI gives Northern Ireland a 83% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Georgia 5%. Northern Ireland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
2-0 (13.1%), followed by 3-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (9.3%), 4-0 (8.7%) and 2-1 (7.7%).
Will both teams score in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
The probability that both Northern Ireland and Georgia score is 42%. Northern Ireland have a 55% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Georgia 6%.
How many goals should we expect in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
The model expects 3.42 goals (2.83 for Northern Ireland, 0.59 for Georgia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 86%, over 2.5 goals 66%, over 3.5 goals 45%.
When and where is Northern Ireland vs Georgia played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Northern Ireland and Georgia in?
Northern Ireland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Georgia: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Northern Ireland and Georgia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Northern Ireland, 0 for Georgia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland (Sep 25, 2026).
How is the Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (2.83 for Northern Ireland, 0.59 for Georgia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Northern Ireland predictions
- All Georgia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology