UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 17:00 (UK time)
Cyprus vs Latvia: 2-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Cyprus 2-1 Latvia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cyprus was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
Match analysis
Cyprus vs Latvia was played on Monday, October 5, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: GSP Stadium, Nicosia. Before kick-off, our model gave Cyprus a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Latvia 14%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (16.9%), ahead of 2-0 (13.9%) and 1-1 (10.7%).
Over their last 5 matches, Cyprus have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Latvia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 6. Recent momentum is clearly with Cyprus. On average Cyprus score 1.20 and concede 0.60 goals per game; Latvia score 0.40 and concede 1.20. In the table, Cyprus sit 2nd with 4 points from 3 games, Latvia 4th with 1 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Cyprus have averaged 0.57 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.97 for Latvia.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cyprus, 0 for Latvia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cyprus 1-1 Latvia (Mar 21, 2024). In double chance terms, "Cyprus or draw" stands at 86%, "Latvia or draw" at 38% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Cyprus are tipped by our AI model in this Cyprus v Latvia (62%). On recent form, Cyprus have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Latvia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Cyprus – Latvia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cyprus 1-0 Latvia | 16.9% |
| Cyprus 2-0 Latvia | 13.9% |
| Cyprus 1-1 Latvia | 10.7% |
| Cyprus 0-0 Latvia | 10.3% |
| Cyprus 2-1 Latvia | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.27 goals in total (1.64 for Cyprus, 0.63 for Latvia): over 2.5 goals has a 40% probability and both teams to score 38%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Cyprus keep a clean sheet in 53% of scenarios, Latvia in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Cyprus expected goals | 1.64 |
| Latvia expected goals | 0.63 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% |
| Cyprus clean sheet | 53% |
| Latvia clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Cyprus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Armenia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Montenegro · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Liechtenstein · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Latvia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Montenegro · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Cyprus · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Armenia · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Latvia | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | Cyprus 1-1 Latvia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Cyprus
No absences reported.
Latvia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Cyprus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- G. Kastanos5/5
- I. Pittas4/5
- Fabiano3/5
- K. Sotiriou3/5
- M. Edwards3/5
- M. Tzionis3/5
- N. Panagiotou3/5
- P. Andreou3/5
- A. Kakoullis2/5
- A. Shikkis2/5
- G. Malekkides2/5
Latvia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Vapne5/5
- A. Černomordijs3/5
- A. Cigaņiks3/5
- D. Cirkin3/5
- D. Meļņiks3/5
- D. Zelenkovs3/5
- E. Emsis3/5
- R. Jurkovskis3/5
- R. Matrevics3/5
- A. Cernomordijs2/5
- A. Ciganiks2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Wales 0-1 DenmarkOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
- Romania 0-1 SwedenOct 5, 2026
- Montenegro 0-0 ArmeniaOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 PolandOct 5, 2026
- Ukraine 1-2 HungaryOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Cyprus vs Latvia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Cyprus a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Latvia 14%. Cyprus are therefore favourites. Final score: 2-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Cyprus vs Latvia?
1-0 (16.9%), followed by 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Cyprus vs Latvia?
The probability that both Cyprus and Latvia score is 38%. Cyprus have a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Latvia 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Cyprus vs Latvia?
The model expects 2.27 goals (1.64 for Cyprus, 0.63 for Latvia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 40%, over 3.5 goals 20%.
When and where is Cyprus vs Latvia played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 17:00 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: GSP Stadium, Nicosia.
What form are Cyprus and Latvia in?
Cyprus: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 3 conceded). Latvia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Cyprus and Latvia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Cyprus, 0 for Latvia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Cyprus 1-1 Latvia (Mar 21, 2024).
What was the Cyprus vs Latvia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Cyprus 2-1 Latvia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Cyprus was the model's favourite outcome (62%). The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (8.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (40%): missed.
How is the Cyprus vs Latvia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.64 for Cyprus, 0.63 for Latvia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Cyprus predictions
- All Latvia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology