UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland match is scheduled on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Poland (46%), ahead of the draw (34%) and a Bosnia & Herzegovina win (20%). The most likely correct score is 0-1 (20.6%), ahead of 0-0 (19.6%) and 1-1 (11.9%).
Bosnia & Herzegovina have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 9. Over their last 5 matches, Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 10. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.20 and concede 1.80 goals per game; Poland score 1.80 and concede 2.00.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 2 for Poland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Oct 14, 2020). In double chance terms, "Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw" stands at 54%, "Poland or draw" at 80% and "no draw" at 66%.
In short : Poland are tipped by our AI model in this Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland (46%). On recent form, Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5 while Poland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Bosnia & Herzegovina – Poland. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (20.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 74% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-1 Poland | 20.6% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 Poland | 19.6% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Poland | 11.9% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland | 11.4% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-2 Poland | 10.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 1.63 goals in total (0.58 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 1.05 for Poland): over 2.5 goals has a 22% probability and both teams to score 29%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Bosnia & Herzegovina keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Poland in 56%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina expected goals | 0.58 |
| Poland expected goals | 1.05 |
| Both teams to score | 29% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina clean sheet | 35% |
| Poland clean sheet | 56% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | United States · FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Qatar · FIFA World Cup | 3-1 | W |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Switzerland · FIFA World Cup | 1-4 | L |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Canada · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Panama · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Poland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Nigeria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| May 31, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Albania · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Malta · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-2 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Poland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2020 | Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 7, 2020 | Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-2 Poland | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Bosnia & Herzegovina
No absences reported.
Poland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Demirovic5/5
- N. Katic5/5
- N. Vasilj5/5
- S. Kolasinac5/5
- A. Dedic4/5
- K. Alajbegovic4/5
- T. Muharemovic4/5
- B. Tahirovic3/5
- E. Bajraktarevic3/5
- E. Dzeko3/5
- I. Basic3/5
Poland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- P. Zielinski5/5
- R. Lewandowski5/5
- J. Kaminski4/5
- J. Kiwior4/5
- N. Zalewski4/5
- P. Wisniewski4/5
- S. Szymanski4/5
- J. Bednarek3/5
- K. Grabara3/5
- T. Kedziora3/5
- B. Slisz2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland prediction?
Our AI gives Bosnia & Herzegovina a 20% chance of winning, the draw 34% and Poland 46%. Poland are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland?
0-1 (20.6%), followed by 0-0 (19.6%), 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.4%) and 0-2 (10.8%).
Will both teams score in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland?
The probability that both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland score is 29%. Bosnia & Herzegovina have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Poland 56%.
How many goals should we expect in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland?
The model expects 1.63 goals (0.58 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 1.05 for Poland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 49%, over 2.5 goals 22%, over 3.5 goals 8%.
When and where is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland in?
Bosnia & Herzegovina: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 9 conceded). Poland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 10 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 2 for Poland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Oct 14, 2020).
How is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.58 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 1.05 for Poland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Bosnia & Herzegovina predictions
- All Poland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology