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UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland: 1-0 result and AI prediction review

Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina1 – 0PolandPoland

Review: prediction vs result

1X2 outcome missedExact score missedMost likely score before kick-off : 0-0

Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Poland (44%), while victory for Bosnia & Herzegovina was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.8%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (15%): correct.

Match analysis

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland was played on Monday, October 5, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica. Before kick-off, our model gave Bosnia & Herzegovina a 18% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Poland 44%. The most likely correct score is 0-0 (26.2%), ahead of 0-1 (23.3%) and 1-0 (11.8%).

Over their last 5 matches, Bosnia & Herzegovina have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Poland have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Bosnia & Herzegovina. On average Bosnia & Herzegovina score 1.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Poland score 1.80 and concede 1.40. In the table, Bosnia & Herzegovina sit 2nd with 5 points from 3 games, Poland 3rd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 2 for Poland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Oct 14, 2020). In double chance terms, "Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw" stands at 56%, "Poland or draw" at 82% and "no draw" at 62%.

In short : Poland are tipped by our AI model in this Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland (44%). On recent form, Bosnia & Herzegovina have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 5 while Poland have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-0.

Outcome probabilities (1X2)

18%
Bosnia & Herzegovina (Win)
38%
Draw
44%
Poland (Win)

Double chance

56%
Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw
82%
Poland or draw
62%
No draw

Most likely correct scores

Scores shown as Bosnia & Herzegovina – Poland. 0-0 is the single most likely scoreline (26.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 82% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.

ScoreProbability
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 Poland26.2%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-1 Poland23.3%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland11.8%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Poland10.5%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-2 Poland10.4%

Goals: both teams to score, over/under

The model expects 1.34 goals in total (0.45 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 0.89 for Poland): over 2.5 goals has a 15% probability and both teams to score 21%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Bosnia & Herzegovina keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Poland in 64%.

Probability
Bosnia & Herzegovina expected goals0.45
Poland expected goals0.89
Both teams to score21%
Over 1.5 goals39%
Over 2.5 goals15%
Over 3.5 goals5%
Bosnia & Herzegovina clean sheet41%
Poland clean sheet64%

Recent form

Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

DateOpponentScore
Oct 2, 2026Sweden · UEFA Nations League1-1D
Sep 28, 2026Romania · UEFA Nations League4-2W
Sep 25, 2026Poland · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Jul 2, 2026United States · FIFA World Cup0-2L
Jun 24, 2026Qatar · FIFA World Cup3-1W

Poland

DateOpponentScore
Oct 2, 2026Romania · UEFA Nations League6-0W
Sep 28, 2026Sweden · UEFA Nations League1-3L
Sep 25, 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League0-0D
Jun 3, 2026Nigeria · International Friendlies2-2D
May 31, 2026Ukraine · International Friendlies0-2L

Standings before the match

Pos.PointsPlayed
Bosnia & Herzegovina253
Poland343

Head-to-head

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2020Poland 3-0 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
Sep 7, 2020Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-2 PolandUEFA Nations League

Out and doubtful

Bosnia & Herzegovina

No absences reported.

Poland

No absences reported.

Most regular starters

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • E. Bajraktarevic4/5
  • I. Bašić3/5
  • Kerim-Sam Alajbegović3/5
  • N. Katić3/5
  • S. Kolašinac3/5
  • T. Muharemović3/5
  • A. Gigović2/5
  • A. Memić2/5
  • E. Demirovic2/5
  • E. Demirović2/5
  • E. Dzeko2/5

Poland

Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).

  • J. Bednarek4/5
  • J. Kiwior4/5
  • N. Zalewski4/5
  • R. Lewandowski4/5
  • M. Bułka3/5
  • M. Cash3/5
  • P. Zieliński3/5
  • S. Szymański3/5
  • B. Slisz2/5
  • K. Potulski2/5
  • P. Wisniewski2/5

Other matches in this competition

Frequently asked questions

What is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland prediction?

Before the match, our AI gave Bosnia & Herzegovina a 18% chance of winning, the draw 38% and Poland 44%. Poland are therefore slight favourites. Final score: 1-0.

What is the most likely correct score for Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland?

0-0 (26.2%), followed by 0-1 (23.3%), 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (10.5%) and 0-2 (10.4%).

Will both teams score in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland?

The probability that both Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland score is 21%. Bosnia & Herzegovina have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Poland 64%.

How many goals should we expect in Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland?

The model expects 1.34 goals (0.45 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 0.89 for Poland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 39%, over 2.5 goals 15%, over 3.5 goals 5%.

When and where is Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland played?

Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica.

What form are Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland in?

Bosnia & Herzegovina: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 6 conceded). Poland: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 7 conceded).

What is the head-to-head record between Bosnia & Herzegovina and Poland?

In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 2 for Poland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Poland 3-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Oct 14, 2020).

What was the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland result, and was the prediction right?

Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Poland (44%), while victory for Bosnia & Herzegovina was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 3rd among the most likely scorelines (11.8%), behind 0-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (21%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (15%): correct.

How is the Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland prediction calculated?

The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.45 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, 0.89 for Poland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.

Go further

Key terms explained