UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Romania vs Sweden prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
Romania take on Sweden on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), a UEFA Nations League fixture. The edge goes to Romania (58%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Sweden win (18%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (14.2%), ahead of 2-0 (11.8%) and 1-1 (11.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Sweden have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 9 and conceding 12. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Romania score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Sweden score 1.80 and concede 2.40.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Romania, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019). In double chance terms, "Romania or draw" stands at 82%, "Sweden or draw" at 42% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Romania are favourites for this Romania v Sweden, with a 58% win probability from our model. On recent form, Romania have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Sweden have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Romania – Sweden. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.2%); the 5 scores below add up to 55% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Romania 1-0 Sweden | 14.2% |
| Romania 2-0 Sweden | 11.8% |
| Romania 1-1 Sweden | 11.3% |
| Romania 2-1 Sweden | 9.4% |
| Romania 0-0 Sweden | 8.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.46 goals in total (1.66 for Romania, 0.80 for Sweden): over 2.5 goals has a 45% probability and both teams to score 45%. Romania keep a clean sheet in 45% of scenarios, Sweden in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Romania expected goals | 1.66 |
| Sweden expected goals | 0.80 |
| Both teams to score | 45% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% |
| Romania clean sheet | 45% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Türkiye · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 7-1 | W |
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Netherlands · FIFA World Cup | 1-5 | L |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Tunisia · FIFA World Cup | 5-1 | W |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Greece · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sweden | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2019 | Romania 0-2 Sweden | Euro Championship |
| Mar 23, 2019 | Sweden 2-1 Romania | Euro Championship |
| Mar 27, 2018 | Romania 1-0 Sweden | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Romania
No absences reported.
Sweden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Dragomir4/5
- A. Ratiu3/5
- D. Birligea3/5
- D. Man3/5
- N. Bancu3/5
- R. Dragusin3/5
- S. Baiaram3/5
- V. Ghita3/5
- A. Burca2/5
- F. Tanase2/5
- I. Hagi2/5
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Isak5/5
- G. Gudmundsson5/5
- G. Lagerbielke5/5
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- Y. Ayari5/5
- A. Bernhardsson4/5
- I. Hien4/5
- V. Lindelof4/5
- B. Nygren3/5
- K. Nordfeldt3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Romania vs Sweden prediction?
Our AI gives Romania a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sweden 18%. Romania are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Romania vs Sweden?
1-0 (14.2%), followed by 2-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.4%) and 0-0 (8.5%).
Will both teams score in Romania vs Sweden?
The probability that both Romania and Sweden score is 45%. Romania have a 45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Romania vs Sweden?
The model expects 2.46 goals (1.66 for Romania, 0.80 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 70%, over 2.5 goals 45%, over 3.5 goals 23%.
When and where is Romania vs Sweden played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Romania and Sweden in?
Romania: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Sweden: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 12 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Romania and Sweden?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Romania, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019).
How is the Romania vs Sweden prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.66 for Romania, 0.80 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Romania predictions
- All Sweden predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology