UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Romania vs Sweden: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Romania 0-1 Sweden. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
Match analysis
Romania vs Sweden was played on Monday, October 5, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Arena Națională, Bucharest. Before kick-off, our model gave Romania a 22% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sweden 55%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (10.9%), ahead of 0-1 (10.3%) and 1-2 (9.8%).
Romania have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 14. Over their last 5 matches, Sweden have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Sweden. On average Romania score 1.20 and concede 2.80 goals per game; Sweden score 1.40 and concede 1.40. In the table, Romania sit 4th with 0 points from 3 games, Sweden 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Romania, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019). In double chance terms, "Romania or draw" stands at 45%, "Sweden or draw" at 78% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Sweden are favourites for this Romania v Sweden, with a 55% win probability from our model. In the table, Romania (4th, 0 pts) host Sweden (1st, 7 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Romania – Sweden. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (10.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 46% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Romania 1-1 Sweden | 10.9% |
| Romania 0-1 Sweden | 10.3% |
| Romania 1-2 Sweden | 9.8% |
| Romania 0-2 Sweden | 9.3% |
| Romania 1-0 Sweden | 6.0% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.87 goals in total (1.06 for Romania, 1.81 for Sweden): over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability and both teams to score 55%. Romania keep a clean sheet in 16% of scenarios, Sweden in 35%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Romania expected goals | 1.06 |
| Sweden expected goals | 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% |
| Romania clean sheet | 16% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 35% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Romania
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Poland · UEFA Nations League | 0-6 | L |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sweden · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Wales · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Georgia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Poland · UEFA Nations League | 3-1 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Romania · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 30, 2026 | France · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Japan · FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Sweden | 1 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2019 | Romania 0-2 Sweden | Euro Championship |
| Mar 23, 2019 | Sweden 2-1 Romania | Euro Championship |
| Mar 27, 2018 | Romania 1-0 Sweden | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Romania
No absences reported.
Sweden
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Romania
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- I. Hagi3/5
- R. Marin3/5
- A. Coubiș2/5
- A. Rațiu2/5
- D. Bîrligea2/5
- D. Man2/5
- D. Olaru2/5
- I. Radu2/5
- L. Eissat2/5
- L. Munteanu2/5
- M. Ilie2/5
Sweden
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- V. Gyökeres5/5
- G. Gudmundsson4/5
- Y. Ayari4/5
- A. Bernhardsson3/5
- A. Isak3/5
- C. Starfelt3/5
- E. Stroud3/5
- L. Bergvall3/5
- V. Johansson3/5
- V. Lindelöf3/5
- A. Elanga2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
- Montenegro 0-0 ArmeniaOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 PolandOct 5, 2026
- Ukraine 1-2 HungaryOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Romania vs Sweden prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Romania a 22% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sweden 55%. Sweden are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Romania vs Sweden?
1-1 (10.9%), followed by 0-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%) and 1-0 (6.0%).
Will both teams score in Romania vs Sweden?
The probability that both Romania and Sweden score is 55%. Romania have a 16% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Sweden 35%.
How many goals should we expect in Romania vs Sweden?
The model expects 2.87 goals (1.06 for Romania, 1.81 for Sweden). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 78%, over 2.5 goals 55%, over 3.5 goals 32%.
When and where is Romania vs Sweden played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Arena Națională, Bucharest.
What form are Romania and Sweden in?
Romania: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 14 conceded). Sweden: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Romania and Sweden?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Romania, 2 for Sweden and 0 draws. The most recent ended Romania 0-2 Sweden (Nov 15, 2019).
What was the Romania vs Sweden result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Romania 0-1 Sweden. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Sweden was the model's favourite outcome (55%). The final score ranked 2nd among the most likely scorelines (10.3%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (55%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (55%): missed.
How is the Romania vs Sweden prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.06 for Romania, 1.81 for Sweden) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Romania predictions
- All Sweden predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology