UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Switzerland vs North Macedonia: 3-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Switzerland 3-0 North Macedonia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Switzerland was the model's favourite outcome (89%). The exact score 3-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
Match analysis
Switzerland vs North Macedonia was played on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Swissporarena, Lucerne. Before kick-off, our model gave Switzerland a 89% chance of winning, the draw 8% and North Macedonia 3%. The most likely correct score is 3-0 (13.4%), ahead of 2-0 (12.4%) and 4-0 (11.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Switzerland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 4. North Macedonia have not won any of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 4 defeats), scoring 0 and conceding 11. Recent momentum is clearly with Switzerland. On average Switzerland score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; North Macedonia score 0.00 and concede 2.20. In the table, Switzerland sit 1st with 9 points from 3 games, North Macedonia 4th with 0 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Switzerland have averaged 0.64 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.38 for North Macedonia.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Switzerland, 0 for North Macedonia and 0 draws. The most recent ended North Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland (Sep 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Switzerland or draw" stands at 97%, "North Macedonia or draw" at 11% and "no draw" at 92%.
In short : Switzerland are tipped by our AI model in this Switzerland v North Macedonia (89%). On recent form, Switzerland have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while North Macedonia are struggling (4 losses in 5). Our model's most likely scoreline: 3-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Switzerland – North Macedonia. 3-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.4%); the 5 scores below add up to 52% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 3-0 North Macedonia | 13.4% |
| Switzerland 2-0 North Macedonia | 12.4% |
| Switzerland 4-0 North Macedonia | 11.0% |
| Switzerland 1-0 North Macedonia | 7.6% |
| Switzerland 5-0 North Macedonia | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 3.76 goals in total (3.26 for Switzerland, 0.50 for North Macedonia): over 2.5 goals has a 73% probability and both teams to score 38%. Everything points to an open game. Switzerland keep a clean sheet in 61% of scenarios, North Macedonia in 4%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Switzerland expected goals | 3.26 |
| North Macedonia expected goals | 0.50 |
| Both teams to score | 38% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% |
| Switzerland clean sheet | 61% |
| North Macedonia clean sheet | 4% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Switzerland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Slovenia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Scotland · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | North Macedonia · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Argentina · FIFA World Cup | 1-3 | L |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Colombia · FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | D |
North Macedonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Scotland · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Slovenia · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Switzerland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Türkiye · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| May 29, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| North Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | North Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Switzerland
No absences reported.
North Macedonia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Switzerland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Ndoye5/5
- G. Kobel5/5
- M. Akanji5/5
- N. Elvedi5/5
- R. Freuler5/5
- A. Jashari4/5
- F. Rieder3/5
- J. Manzambi3/5
- R. Rodríguez3/5
- Z. Amdouni3/5
- Z. Athekame3/5
North Macedonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Elmas5/5
- S. Dimitrievski5/5
- B. Miovski4/5
- G. Zajkov3/5
- J. Atanasov3/5
- M. Gashtarov3/5
- S. Herrera3/5
- V. Musliu3/5
- A. Elezi2/5
- Anes Meljichi2/5
- Bojan Ilievski2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Switzerland vs North Macedonia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Switzerland a 89% chance of winning, the draw 8% and North Macedonia 3%. Switzerland are therefore favourites. Final score: 3-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Switzerland vs North Macedonia?
3-0 (13.4%), followed by 2-0 (12.4%), 4-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (7.6%) and 5-0 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Switzerland vs North Macedonia?
The probability that both Switzerland and North Macedonia score is 38%. Switzerland have a 61% chance of keeping a clean sheet, North Macedonia 4%.
How many goals should we expect in Switzerland vs North Macedonia?
The model expects 3.76 goals (3.26 for Switzerland, 0.50 for North Macedonia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 89%, over 2.5 goals 73%, over 3.5 goals 52%.
When and where is Switzerland vs North Macedonia played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Swissporarena, Lucerne.
What form are Switzerland and North Macedonia in?
Switzerland: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). North Macedonia: 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 matches (0 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Switzerland and North Macedonia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Switzerland, 0 for North Macedonia and 0 draws. The most recent ended North Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland (Sep 26, 2026).
What was the Switzerland vs North Macedonia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Switzerland 3-0 North Macedonia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Switzerland was the model's favourite outcome (89%). The exact score 3-0 was the most likely scoreline in our grid (13.4%). On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (38%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (73%): correct.
How is the Switzerland vs North Macedonia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (3.26 for Switzerland, 0.50 for North Macedonia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Switzerland predictions
- All North Macedonia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology