UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Moldova vs Slovakia: 0-4 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Moldova 0-4 Slovakia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Slovakia was the model's favourite outcome (71%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Moldova vs Slovakia was played on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Zimbru, Chisinau. Before kick-off, our model gave Moldova a 10% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Slovakia 71%. The most likely correct score is 0-2 (14.6%), ahead of 0-1 (14.2%) and 0-3 (9.9%).
Moldova have won just one of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Slovakia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Slovakia. On average Moldova score 1.20 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Slovakia score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Moldova sit 3rd with 4 points from 3 games, Slovakia 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Moldova have averaged 0.89 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.66 for Slovakia.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Moldova, 1 for Slovakia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Slovakia 2-0 Moldova (Sep 26, 2026). In double chance terms, "Moldova or draw" stands at 29%, "Slovakia or draw" at 90% and "no draw" at 81%.
In short : Slovakia are favourites for this Moldova v Slovakia, with a 71% win probability from our model. In the table, Moldova (3rd, 4 pts) host Slovakia (1st, 7 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-2.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Moldova – Slovakia. 0-2 is the single most likely scoreline (14.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Moldova 0-2 Slovakia | 14.6% |
| Moldova 0-1 Slovakia | 14.2% |
| Moldova 0-3 Slovakia | 9.9% |
| Moldova 1-2 Slovakia | 9.0% |
| Moldova 1-1 Slovakia | 8.8% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.67 goals in total (0.62 for Moldova, 2.05 for Slovakia): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 40%. Moldova keep a clean sheet in 13% of scenarios, Slovakia in 54%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Moldova expected goals | 0.62 |
| Slovakia expected goals | 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Moldova clean sheet | 13% |
| Slovakia clean sheet | 54% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Moldova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Kazakhstan · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Faroe Islands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Slovakia · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
Slovakia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Faroe Islands · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Kazakhstan · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Moldova · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Malta · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Slovakia | 1 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Slovakia 2-0 Moldova | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Moldova
No absences reported.
Slovakia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Moldova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Celeadnic5/5
- M. Gherasimencov5/5
- V. Baboglo5/5
- D. Forov4/5
- I. Iovu3/5
- I. Revenco3/5
- O. Reabciuk3/5
- Petru Popescu3/5
- C. Cucos2/5
- N. Cleșcenco2/5
- S. Bodisteanu2/5
Slovakia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- T. Suslov5/5
- A. Obert4/5
- O. Duda4/5
- D. Strelec3/5
- M. Škriniar3/5
- M. Valjent3/5
- S. Lobotka3/5
- D. Greif2/5
- D. Hancko2/5
- D. Vavro2/5
- L. Haraslín2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Moldova vs Slovakia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Moldova a 10% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Slovakia 71%. Slovakia are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-4.
What is the most likely correct score for Moldova vs Slovakia?
0-2 (14.6%), followed by 0-1 (14.2%), 0-3 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.0%) and 1-1 (8.8%).
Will both teams score in Moldova vs Slovakia?
The probability that both Moldova and Slovakia score is 40%. Moldova have a 13% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Slovakia 54%.
How many goals should we expect in Moldova vs Slovakia?
The model expects 2.67 goals (0.62 for Moldova, 2.05 for Slovakia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Moldova vs Slovakia played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Zimbru, Chisinau.
What form are Moldova and Slovakia in?
Moldova: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded). Slovakia: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Moldova and Slovakia?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Moldova, 1 for Slovakia and 0 draws. The most recent ended Slovakia 2-0 Moldova (Sep 26, 2026).
What was the Moldova vs Slovakia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Moldova 0-4 Slovakia. The 1X2 prediction came good: victory for Slovakia was the model's favourite outcome (71%). The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (5.1%), behind 0-2. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Moldova vs Slovakia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.62 for Moldova, 2.05 for Slovakia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Moldova predictions
- All Slovakia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology