UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Moldova vs Slovakia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Moldova vs Slovakia match is scheduled on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Moldova (48%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Slovakia win (27%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (12.1%), ahead of 1-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.3%).
Moldova have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 12. Over their last 5 matches, Slovakia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Recent momentum is clearly with Slovakia. On average Moldova score 1.20 and concede 2.40 goals per game; Slovakia score 1.80 and concede 2.60.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Moldova and Slovakia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Moldova or draw" stands at 73%, "Slovakia or draw" at 52% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Moldova are favourites for this Moldova v Slovakia, with a 48% win probability from our model. On recent form, Moldova have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 while Slovakia have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Moldova – Slovakia. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (12.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Moldova 1-1 Slovakia | 12.1% |
| Moldova 1-0 Slovakia | 11.2% |
| Moldova 2-1 Slovakia | 9.3% |
| Moldova 2-0 Slovakia | 8.6% |
| Moldova 0-1 Slovakia | 7.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.62 goals in total (1.54 for Moldova, 1.08 for Slovakia): over 2.5 goals has a 49% probability and both teams to score 52%. Moldova keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Slovakia in 21%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Moldova expected goals | 1.54 |
| Slovakia expected goals | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% |
| Moldova clean sheet | 34% |
| Slovakia clean sheet | 21% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Moldova
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Lithuania · International Friendlies | 0-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Israel · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-4 | L |
Slovakia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Malta · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Kosovo · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 3-4 | L |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Germany · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-6 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovakia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Moldova and Slovakia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Moldova
No absences reported.
Slovakia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Moldova
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Gherasimencov5/5
- V. Baboglo5/5
- D. Forov4/5
- I. Revenco4/5
- C. Cucos3/5
- P. Popescu3/5
- S. Perciun3/5
- V. Postolachi3/5
- D. Celeadnic2/5
- D. Puscas2/5
- E. Timbur2/5
Slovakia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Obert5/5
- D. Strelec4/5
- O. Duda4/5
- D. Hancko3/5
- D. Vavro3/5
- L. Haraslin3/5
- M. Bero3/5
- M. Valjent3/5
- S. Lobotka3/5
- T. Suslov3/5
- L. Benes2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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- Switzerland – North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia – SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus – FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland – SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia – IcelandOct 6, 2026
- England – CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg – BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Moldova vs Slovakia prediction?
Our AI gives Moldova a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Slovakia 27%. Moldova are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Moldova vs Slovakia?
1-1 (12.1%), followed by 1-0 (11.2%), 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (8.6%) and 0-1 (7.9%).
Will both teams score in Moldova vs Slovakia?
The probability that both Moldova and Slovakia score is 52%. Moldova have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Slovakia 21%.
How many goals should we expect in Moldova vs Slovakia?
The model expects 2.62 goals (1.54 for Moldova, 1.08 for Slovakia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 27%.
When and where is Moldova vs Slovakia played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Moldova and Slovakia in?
Moldova: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 12 conceded). Slovakia: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 13 conceded).
How is the Moldova vs Slovakia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.54 for Moldova, 1.08 for Slovakia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Moldova predictions
- All Slovakia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology