UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Estonia vs Iceland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Estonia vs Iceland kicks off on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Estonia start as favourites with a 57% chance of victory; Iceland are given 20% and the draw 23%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%) and 2-0 (10.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Iceland have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 11. Estonia therefore arrive in far better shape than Iceland. On average Estonia score 1.40 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Iceland score 0.60 and concede 2.20.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estonia, 0 for Iceland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023). In double chance terms, "Estonia or draw" stands at 80%, "Iceland or draw" at 43% and "no draw" at 77%.
In short : Estonia are favourites for this Estonia v Iceland, with a 57% win probability from our model. On recent form, Estonia have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5 while Iceland have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estonia – Iceland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estonia 1-0 Iceland | 11.7% |
| Estonia 1-1 Iceland | 11.1% |
| Estonia 2-0 Iceland | 10.3% |
| Estonia 2-1 Iceland | 9.8% |
| Estonia 0-0 Iceland | 6.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.76 expected goals for Estonia and 0.95 for Iceland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 51% and "both teams to score" at 51%. Estonia keep a clean sheet in 39% of scenarios, Iceland in 17%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estonia expected goals | 1.76 |
| Iceland expected goals | 0.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 39% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 17% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Rwanda · FIFA Series | 0-2 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kenya · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 4-2 | W |
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Haiti · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Canada · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Mexico · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Iceland | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Estonia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Estonia
No absences reported.
Iceland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Tougjas4/5
- K. Hussar3/5
- P. Kristal3/5
- K. Hein2/5
- K. Kait2/5
- K. Palumets2/5
- M. Kolobov2/5
- M. Kuusk2/5
- M. Mannilaan2/5
- M. Soomets2/5
- T. Tammik2/5
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Magnusson3/5
- K. Hlynsson3/5
- L. Tomasson3/5
- M. E. Ellertsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- B. Willumsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- D. Thorhallsson2/5
- E. Olafsson2/5
- G. Sigurdsson2/5
- H. Haraldsson2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Estonia vs Iceland prediction?
Our AI gives Estonia a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iceland 20%. Estonia are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Estonia vs Iceland?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 0-0 (6.7%).
Will both teams score in Estonia vs Iceland?
The probability that both Estonia and Iceland score is 51%. Estonia have a 39% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Iceland 17%.
How many goals should we expect in Estonia vs Iceland?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.76 for Estonia, 0.95 for Iceland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Estonia vs Iceland played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Estonia and Iceland in?
Estonia: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded). Iceland: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 11 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Estonia and Iceland?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estonia, 0 for Iceland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023).
How is the Estonia vs Iceland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.76 for Estonia, 0.95 for Iceland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estonia predictions
- All Iceland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology