UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Estonia vs Iceland: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Estonia 0-0 Iceland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Iceland (60%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.
Match analysis
Estonia and Iceland met on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. Before kick-off, our model gave Estonia a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Iceland 60%. On the correct score, 0-1 comes out on top (15.1%), followed by 0-2 (12.7%) and 1-1 (11.1%).
Estonia are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 4 and conceding 1. Over their last 5 matches, Iceland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Estonia therefore arrive in far better shape than Iceland. On average Estonia score 0.80 and concede 0.20 goals per game; Iceland score 1.40 and concede 1.00. In the table, Estonia sit 2nd with 5 points from 3 games, Iceland 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Estonia have averaged 1.60 xG (expected goals) per match, against 2.98 for Iceland.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estonia, 0 for Iceland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023). In double chance terms, "Estonia or draw" stands at 40%, "Iceland or draw" at 84% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Iceland are favourites for this Estonia v Iceland, with a 60% win probability from our model. On recent form, Estonia have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Iceland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Estonia – Iceland. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (15.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 57% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estonia 0-1 Iceland | 15.1% |
| Estonia 0-2 Iceland | 12.7% |
| Estonia 1-1 Iceland | 11.1% |
| Estonia 1-2 Iceland | 9.2% |
| Estonia 0-0 Iceland | 9.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 0.73 expected goals for Estonia and 1.67 for Iceland, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 43% and "both teams to score" at 42%. Estonia keep a clean sheet in 19% of scenarios, Iceland in 48%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Estonia expected goals | 0.73 |
| Iceland expected goals | 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% |
| Estonia clean sheet | 19% |
| Iceland clean sheet | 48% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Estonia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 1-0 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Iceland · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Lithuania · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Faroe Islands · Baltic Cup | 1-0 | W |
Iceland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Estonia · UEFA Nations League | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Argentina · International Friendlies | 0-3 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Japan · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Iceland | 1 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | Iceland 1-1 Estonia | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Estonia
No absences reported.
Iceland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Estonia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Hein4/5
- M. Kuusk4/5
- P. Kristal4/5
- K. Mets3/5
- K. Palumets3/5
- M. Käit3/5
- M. Paskotši3/5
- M. Poom3/5
- M. Schjønning-Larsen3/5
- R. Peetson3/5
- E. Tougjas2/5
Iceland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- H. Haraldsson4/5
- H. Valdimarsson3/5
- Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson3/5
- M. Ellertsson3/5
- O. Óskarsson3/5
- A. F. Baldursson2/5
- A. Guðjohnsen2/5
- D. Grétarsson2/5
- D. L. Gretarsson2/5
- H. Magnusson2/5
- J. Þorsteinsson2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Estonia vs Iceland prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Estonia a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Iceland 60%. Iceland are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Estonia vs Iceland?
0-1 (15.1%), followed by 0-2 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.1%), 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-0 (9.1%).
Will both teams score in Estonia vs Iceland?
The probability that both Estonia and Iceland score is 42%. Estonia have a 19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Iceland 48%.
How many goals should we expect in Estonia vs Iceland?
The model expects 2.40 goals (0.73 for Estonia, 1.67 for Iceland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 69%, over 2.5 goals 43%, over 3.5 goals 22%.
When and where is Estonia vs Iceland played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn.
What form are Estonia and Iceland in?
Estonia: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 1 conceded). Iceland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (7 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Estonia and Iceland?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Estonia, 0 for Iceland and 1 draw. The most recent ended Iceland 1-1 Estonia (Jan 8, 2023).
What was the Estonia vs Iceland result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Estonia 0-0 Iceland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Iceland (60%), while a draw was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (9.1%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (43%): correct.
How is the Estonia vs Iceland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.73 for Estonia, 1.67 for Iceland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Estonia predictions
- All Iceland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology