UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Scotland vs Slovenia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: the Scotland vs Slovenia match is scheduled on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). It is a tight call: 35% for Scotland, 31% for the draw and 34% for Slovenia. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (13.7%), followed by 0-0 (13.5%) and 1-1 (13.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Scotland have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Slovenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Scotland therefore arrive in far better shape than Slovenia. On average Scotland score 1.80 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Slovenia score 1.20 and concede 1.40.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Scotland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 2-2 Scotland (Oct 8, 2017). In double chance terms, "Scotland or draw" stands at 66%, "Slovenia or draw" at 65% and "no draw" at 69%.
In short : An evenly-matched game between Scotland and Slovenia: our model sees no clear favourite. On recent form, Scotland have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Slovenia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Scotland – Slovenia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 61% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scotland 1-0 Slovenia | 13.7% |
| Scotland 0-0 Slovenia | 13.5% |
| Scotland 1-1 Slovenia | 13.5% |
| Scotland 0-1 Slovenia | 13.4% |
| Scotland 2-0 Slovenia | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.01 expected goals for Scotland and 0.99 for Slovenia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 32% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Few goals are expected here. Scotland keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Slovenia in 36%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Scotland expected goals | 1.01 |
| Slovenia expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% |
| Scotland clean sheet | 37% |
| Slovenia clean sheet | 36% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Scotland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Haiti · FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bolivia · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
| May 30, 2026 | Curaçao · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Slovenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Croatia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 3-2 | W |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Sweden · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovenia | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2017 | Slovenia 2-2 Scotland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2017 | Scotland 1-0 Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Scotland
No absences reported.
Slovenia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Scotland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Robertson5/5
- A. Gunn4/5
- B. Gannon-Doak4/5
- J. Hendry4/5
- L. Ferguson4/5
- L. Shankland4/5
- S. McTominay4/5
- A. Hickey3/5
- C. Adams3/5
- G. Hanley3/5
- J. McGinn3/5
Slovenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Sturm5/5
- J. Bijol5/5
- A. Gnezda Cerin4/5
- E. Janza4/5
- V. Drkusic4/5
- Z. Vipotnik4/5
- I. Vekic3/5
- M. Ratnik3/5
- T. Elsnik3/5
- Z. Karnicnik3/5
- A. Sporar2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Scotland vs Slovenia prediction?
Our AI gives Scotland a 35% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Slovenia 34%. Scotland are therefore slight favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Scotland vs Slovenia?
1-0 (13.7%), followed by 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.4%) and 2-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Scotland vs Slovenia?
The probability that both Scotland and Slovenia score is 40%. Scotland have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Slovenia 36%.
How many goals should we expect in Scotland vs Slovenia?
The model expects 2.00 goals (1.01 for Scotland, 0.99 for Slovenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 59%, over 2.5 goals 32%, over 3.5 goals 14%.
When and where is Scotland vs Slovenia played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Scotland and Slovenia in?
Scotland: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded). Slovenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Scotland and Slovenia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Scotland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 2-2 Scotland (Oct 8, 2017).
How is the Scotland vs Slovenia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.01 for Scotland, 0.99 for Slovenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Scotland predictions
- All Slovenia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology