UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Scotland vs Slovenia: 1-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Scotland 1-2 Slovenia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Scotland (56%), while victory for Slovenia was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.
Match analysis
Scotland and Slovenia met on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Hampden Park Stadium, Glasgow. Before kick-off, our model gave Scotland a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Slovenia 18%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (16.1%), followed by 2-0 (12.1%) and 1-1 (11.7%).
Scotland have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 2 and conceding 7. Slovenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 5 and conceding 5. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Scotland score 0.40 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Slovenia score 1.00 and concede 1.00. In the table, Scotland sit 3rd with 4 points from 3 games, Slovenia 2nd with 4 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Scotland have averaged 1.67 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.42 for Slovenia.
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Scotland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 2-2 Scotland (Oct 8, 2017). In double chance terms, "Scotland or draw" stands at 82%, "Slovenia or draw" at 44% and "no draw" at 74%.
In short : Our model backs Scotland to edge Slovenia (56% probability). On recent form, Scotland have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Slovenia have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in 5. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Scotland – Slovenia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (16.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scotland 1-0 Slovenia | 16.1% |
| Scotland 2-0 Slovenia | 12.1% |
| Scotland 1-1 Slovenia | 11.7% |
| Scotland 0-0 Slovenia | 10.6% |
| Scotland 2-1 Slovenia | 8.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.51 expected goals for Scotland and 0.73 for Slovenia, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 39% and "both teams to score" at 40%. Few goals are expected here. Scotland keep a clean sheet in 48% of scenarios, Slovenia in 22%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Scotland expected goals | 1.51 |
| Slovenia expected goals | 0.73 |
| Both teams to score | 40% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% |
| Scotland clean sheet | 48% |
| Slovenia clean sheet | 22% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Scotland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | North Macedonia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Switzerland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Slovenia · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Brazil · FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | L |
| Jun 19, 2026 | Morocco · FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | L |
Slovenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Switzerland · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | North Macedonia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Scotland · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Croatia · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Slovenia | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2017 | Slovenia 2-2 Scotland | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2017 | Scotland 1-0 Slovenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Scotland
No absences reported.
Slovenia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Scotland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Gunn5/5
- A. Robertson5/5
- L. Ferguson5/5
- J. Hendry4/5
- S. McKenna4/5
- B. Gilmour3/5
- J. McGinn3/5
- N. Patterson3/5
- O. McBurnie3/5
- J. McGinn2/5
- K. Bowie2/5
Slovenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Bijol5/5
- J. Oblak5/5
- Z. Vipotnik4/5
- D. Brekalo3/5
- D. Šturm3/5
- E. Janža3/5
- V. Drkušić3/5
- Ž. Karničnik3/5
- A. Čerin2/5
- A. Gnezda Cerin2/5
- A. Matko2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Scotland vs Slovenia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Scotland a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Slovenia 18%. Scotland are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Scotland vs Slovenia?
1-0 (16.1%), followed by 2-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.9%).
Will both teams score in Scotland vs Slovenia?
The probability that both Scotland and Slovenia score is 40%. Scotland have a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Slovenia 22%.
How many goals should we expect in Scotland vs Slovenia?
The model expects 2.24 goals (1.51 for Scotland, 0.73 for Slovenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 66%, over 2.5 goals 39%, over 3.5 goals 19%.
When and where is Scotland vs Slovenia played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Hampden Park Stadium, Glasgow.
What form are Scotland and Slovenia in?
Scotland: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (2 scored, 7 conceded). Slovenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (5 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Scotland and Slovenia?
In the last 2 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Scotland, 0 for Slovenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Slovenia 2-2 Scotland (Oct 8, 2017).
What was the Scotland vs Slovenia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Scotland 1-2 Slovenia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Scotland (56%), while victory for Slovenia was rated at only 18%. The final score ranked 9th among the most likely scorelines (4.3%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (40%): missed; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (39%): missed.
How is the Scotland vs Slovenia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.51 for Scotland, 0.73 for Slovenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Scotland predictions
- All Slovenia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology