UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Belarus vs Finland prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Belarus vs Finland kicks off on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Belarus (54%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Finland win (22%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.6%), ahead of 1-1 (11.5%) and 2-0 (9.8%).
Belarus are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (3 wins, 2 draws), scoring 9 and conceding 4. Over their last 5 matches, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Belarus. On average Belarus score 1.80 and concede 0.80 goals per game; Finland score 1.60 and concede 1.40.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belarus and Finland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Belarus or draw" stands at 78%, "Finland or draw" at 46% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Belarus are tipped by our AI model in this Belarus v Finland (54%). On recent form, Belarus have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses in 5 while Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Belarus – Finland. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belarus 1-0 Finland | 11.6% |
| Belarus 1-1 Finland | 11.5% |
| Belarus 2-0 Finland | 9.8% |
| Belarus 2-1 Finland | 9.7% |
| Belarus 0-0 Finland | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.69 for Belarus, 0.99 for Finland): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Belarus keep a clean sheet in 37% of scenarios, Finland in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Belarus expected goals | 1.69 |
| Finland expected goals | 0.99 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Belarus clean sheet | 37% |
| Finland clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Belarus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-0 | D |
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde · FIFA Series | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand · FIFA Series | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Finland | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Belarus and Finland: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Belarus
No absences reported.
Finland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Belarus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Ebong5/5
- A. Shumansky4/5
- E. Yablonskiy4/5
- V. Gromyko4/5
- Z. Volkov4/5
- F. Lapoukhov3/5
- K. Pechenin3/5
- P. Pavlyuchenko2/5
- P. Zabelin2/5
- R. Begunov2/5
- R. Lisakovich2/5
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Markhiev4/5
- A. Suhonen4/5
- L. Walta4/5
- V. Koski4/5
- J. Pohjanpalo3/5
- L. Hradecky3/5
- N. Alho3/5
- N. Skytta3/5
- R. Mahuta3/5
- O. Antman2/5
- T. Miettinen2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Belarus vs Finland prediction?
Our AI gives Belarus a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Finland 22%. Belarus are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Belarus vs Finland?
1-0 (11.6%), followed by 1-1 (11.5%), 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Belarus vs Finland?
The probability that both Belarus and Finland score is 51%. Belarus have a 37% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Finland 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Belarus vs Finland?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.69 for Belarus, 0.99 for Finland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Belarus vs Finland played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Belarus and Finland in?
Belarus: 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 4 conceded). Finland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 7 conceded).
How is the Belarus vs Finland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.69 for Belarus, 0.99 for Finland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Belarus predictions
- All Finland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology