UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Belarus vs Finland: 1-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Belarus 1-0 Finland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Finland (48%), while victory for Belarus was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
Match analysis
Belarus vs Finland was played on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest. Before kick-off, our model gave Belarus a 24% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Finland 48%. The most likely correct score is 0-1 (14.9%), ahead of 1-1 (12.8%) and 0-0 (11.3%).
Over their last 5 matches, Belarus have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Over their last 5 matches, Finland have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 7. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Belarus score 2.00 and concede 1.00 goals per game; Finland score 2.00 and concede 1.40. In the table, Belarus sit 3rd with 4 points from 3 games, Finland 1st with 7 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Belarus have averaged 1.44 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.56 for Finland.
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Belarus, 1 for Finland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Finland 2-0 Belarus (Jun 9, 2018). In double chance terms, "Belarus or draw" stands at 53%, "Finland or draw" at 76% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Finland are tipped by our AI model in this Belarus v Finland (47%). In the table, Belarus (3rd, 4 pts) host Finland (1st, 7 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Belarus – Finland. 0-1 is the single most likely scoreline (14.9%); the 5 scores below add up to 59% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Belarus 0-1 Finland | 14.9% |
| Belarus 1-1 Finland | 12.8% |
| Belarus 0-0 Finland | 11.3% |
| Belarus 0-2 Finland | 9.8% |
| Belarus 1-0 Finland | 9.7% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.18 goals in total (0.86 for Belarus, 1.32 for Finland): over 2.5 goals has a 37% probability and both teams to score 42%. A tight, low-scoring game is on the cards. Belarus keep a clean sheet in 27% of scenarios, Finland in 42%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Belarus expected goals | 0.86 |
| Finland expected goals | 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | 42% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Belarus clean sheet | 27% |
| Finland clean sheet | 42% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Belarus
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | San Marino · UEFA Nations League | 4-0 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Finland · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Albania · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria · International Friendlies | 4-1 | W |
Finland
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albania · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Belarus · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | San Marino · UEFA Nations League | 7-0 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany · International Friendlies | 0-4 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Finland | 1 | 7 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2018 | Finland 2-0 Belarus | International Friendlies |
Out and doubtful
Belarus
No absences reported.
Finland
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Belarus
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- M. Ebong5/5
- Z. Volkov5/5
- K. Pechenin4/5
- A. Kontsevoy3/5
- A. Selyava3/5
- F. Lapoukhov3/5
- K. Gomanov3/5
- V. Gromyko3/5
- V. Kalinin3/5
- A. Shumansky2/5
- E. Yablonskiy2/5
Finland
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- L. Walta5/5
- J. Pohjanpalo4/5
- T. Miettinen4/5
- V. Koski4/5
- A. Marhiev3/5
- J. Lähteenmäki3/5
- K. Kairinen3/5
- T. Keskinen3/5
- A. Markhiev2/5
- A. Ståhl2/5
- A. Suhonen2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
- Luxembourg 0-2 BulgariaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Belarus vs Finland prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Belarus a 24% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Finland 48%. Finland are therefore favourites. Final score: 1-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Belarus vs Finland?
0-1 (14.9%), followed by 1-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.3%), 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.7%).
Will both teams score in Belarus vs Finland?
The probability that both Belarus and Finland score is 42%. Belarus have a 27% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Finland 42%.
How many goals should we expect in Belarus vs Finland?
The model expects 2.18 goals (0.86 for Belarus, 1.32 for Finland). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 64%, over 2.5 goals 37%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Belarus vs Finland played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest.
What form are Belarus and Finland in?
Belarus: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 5 conceded). Finland: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Belarus and Finland?
In the last 1 meeting between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Belarus, 1 for Finland and 0 draws. The most recent ended Finland 2-0 Belarus (Jun 9, 2018).
What was the Belarus vs Finland result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Belarus 1-0 Finland. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Finland (48%), while victory for Belarus was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (9.7%), behind 0-1. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (42%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (37%): correct.
How is the Belarus vs Finland prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (0.86 for Belarus, 1.32 for Finland) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Belarus predictions
- All Finland predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology