UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria kicks off on Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). Luxembourg start as favourites with a 51% chance of victory; Bulgaria are given 24% and the draw 25%. On the correct score, 1-1 comes out on top (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Over their last 5 matches, Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 15 and conceding 6. Both sides come in with similar form. On average Luxembourg score 1.20 and concede 0.40 goals per game; Bulgaria score 3.00 and concede 1.20.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Luxembourg, 2 for Bulgaria and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Luxembourg or draw" stands at 76%, "Bulgaria or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Luxembourg are favourites for this Luxembourg v Bulgaria, with a 51% win probability from our model. On recent form, Luxembourg have 3 wins, 0 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Bulgaria have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Luxembourg – Bulgaria. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 49% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | 11.8% |
| Luxembourg 1-0 Bulgaria | 11.4% |
| Luxembourg 2-1 Bulgaria | 9.5% |
| Luxembourg 2-0 Bulgaria | 9.2% |
| Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.61 expected goals for Luxembourg and 1.04 for Bulgaria, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 49% and "both teams to score" at 52%. Luxembourg keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Bulgaria in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg expected goals | 1.61 |
| Bulgaria expected goals | 1.04 |
| Both teams to score | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 35% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 3-0 | W |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Northern Ireland · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia · FIFA Series | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands · FIFA Series | 10-2 | W |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-1 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | International Friendlies |
| Oct 10, 2017 | Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Bulgaria 4-3 Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- C. Martins3/5
- D. Carlson3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- L. Jans3/5
- S. Korac3/5
- A. Dardari2/5
- A. Moris2/5
- Aiman Dardari2/5
- Anthony Moris2/5
- Danel Sinani2/5
- Dirk Carlson2/5
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- Z. Dimitrov4/5
- A. Kraev3/5
- D. Velkovski3/5
- F. Krastev3/5
- M. Petkov3/5
- T. Ivanov3/5
- D. Mitov2/5
- D. Naumov2/5
- E. Tsenov2/5
- G. Rusev2/5
- H. Petrov2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria prediction?
Our AI gives Luxembourg a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bulgaria 24%. Luxembourg are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
The probability that both Luxembourg and Bulgaria score is 52%. Luxembourg have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bulgaria 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
The model expects 2.65 goals (1.61 for Luxembourg, 1.04 for Bulgaria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 74%, over 2.5 goals 49%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Luxembourg vs Bulgaria played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Luxembourg and Bulgaria in?
Luxembourg: 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 2 conceded). Bulgaria: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (15 scored, 6 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Luxembourg and Bulgaria?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Luxembourg, 2 for Bulgaria and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024).
How is the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.61 for Luxembourg, 1.04 for Bulgaria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Luxembourg predictions
- All Bulgaria predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology