UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: 0-2 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Luxembourg (47%), while victory for Bulgaria was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
Match analysis
Luxembourg and Bulgaria met on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, a UEFA Nations League fixture. Venue: Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Before kick-off, our model gave Luxembourg a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bulgaria 25%. On the correct score, 1-0 comes out on top (14.5%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%) and 0-0 (11.1%).
Over their last 5 matches, Luxembourg have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Bulgaria have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Luxembourg therefore arrive in far better shape than Bulgaria. On average Luxembourg score 0.60 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Bulgaria score 0.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Luxembourg sit 3rd with 3 points from 3 games, Bulgaria 4th with 1 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Luxembourg have averaged 0.56 xG (expected goals) per match, against 1.12 for Bulgaria.
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Luxembourg, 2 for Bulgaria and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024). In double chance terms, "Luxembourg or draw" stands at 75%, "Bulgaria or draw" at 54% and "no draw" at 72%.
In short : Luxembourg are favourites for this Luxembourg v Bulgaria, with a 46% win probability from our model. On recent form, Luxembourg have 2 wins, 0 draw and 3 losses in 5 while Bulgaria have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Luxembourg – Bulgaria. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (14.5%); the 5 scores below add up to 58% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg 1-0 Bulgaria | 14.5% |
| Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | 12.9% |
| Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | 11.1% |
| Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | 9.9% |
| Luxembourg 2-0 Bulgaria | 9.5% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
With 1.31 expected goals for Luxembourg and 0.89 for Bulgaria, "over 2.5 goals" is rated at 38% and "both teams to score" at 43%. Few goals are expected here. Luxembourg keep a clean sheet in 41% of scenarios, Bulgaria in 27%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Luxembourg expected goals | 1.31 |
| Bulgaria expected goals | 0.89 |
| Both teams to score | 43% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% |
| Luxembourg clean sheet | 41% |
| Bulgaria clean sheet | 27% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Luxembourg
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Estonia · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Iceland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Bulgaria
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Iceland · UEFA Nations League | 0-3 | L |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Estonia · UEFA Nations League | 0-0 | D |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Luxembourg · UEFA Nations League | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro · International Friendlies | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | International Friendlies |
| Oct 10, 2017 | Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Bulgaria 4-3 Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Luxembourg
No absences reported.
Bulgaria
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Luxembourg
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Carlson5/5
- V. Thill5/5
- A. Moris4/5
- F. Bohnert4/5
- L. Jans4/5
- Aiman Dardari3/5
- D. Sinani3/5
- E. Mahmutović3/5
- J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz3/5
- C. Martins2/5
- H. Kadamani2/5
Bulgaria
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- D. Velkovski5/5
- L. Petkov5/5
- D. Naumov4/5
- I. Turitsov4/5
- K. Dimitrov4/5
- G. Rusev3/5
- I. Gruev3/5
- Z. Dimitrov3/5
- A. Chandarov2/5
- A. Kraev2/5
- B. Tsonev2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
- Croatia 1-2 SpainOct 6, 2026
- Belarus 1-0 FinlandOct 6, 2026
- Scotland 1-2 SloveniaOct 6, 2026
- Estonia 0-0 IcelandOct 6, 2026
- Moldova 0-4 SlovakiaOct 6, 2026
- England 3-0 CzechiaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Luxembourg a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Bulgaria 25%. Luxembourg are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-2.
What is the most likely correct score for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
1-0 (14.5%), followed by 1-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.5%).
Will both teams score in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
The probability that both Luxembourg and Bulgaria score is 43%. Luxembourg have a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Bulgaria 27%.
How many goals should we expect in Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
The model expects 2.20 goals (1.31 for Luxembourg, 0.89 for Bulgaria). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 65%, over 2.5 goals 38%, over 3.5 goals 18%.
When and where is Luxembourg vs Bulgaria played?
Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
What form are Luxembourg and Bulgaria in?
Luxembourg: 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 6 conceded). Bulgaria: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (3 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Luxembourg and Bulgaria?
In the last 5 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Luxembourg, 2 for Bulgaria and 3 draws. The most recent ended Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria (Nov 15, 2024).
What was the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Luxembourg (47%), while victory for Bulgaria was rated at only 25%. The final score ranked 8th among the most likely scorelines (4.4%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (43%): correct; it pointed to under 2.5 goals (38%): correct.
How is the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.31 for Luxembourg, 0.89 for Bulgaria) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Luxembourg predictions
- All Bulgaria predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology