UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Montenegro vs Armenia: 0-0 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Montenegro 0-0 Armenia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Montenegro (65%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
Match analysis
Montenegro vs Armenia was played on Monday, October 5, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Gradski Stadion, Podgorica. Before kick-off, our model gave Montenegro a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Armenia 14%. The most likely correct score is 1-0 (13.1%), ahead of 2-0 (12.6%) and 1-1 (10.0%).
Montenegro are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring 10 and conceding 6. Armenia have won just one of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 6 and conceding 7. Recent momentum is clearly with Montenegro. On average Montenegro score 2.00 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Armenia score 1.20 and concede 1.40. In the table, Montenegro sit 1st with 9 points from 3 games, Armenia 3rd with 3 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings. Over their recent games, Montenegro have averaged 2.41 xG (expected goals) per match, against 0.95 for Armenia.
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Montenegro, 2 for Armenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 2-2 Armenia (Jun 9, 2025). In double chance terms, "Montenegro or draw" stands at 86%, "Armenia or draw" at 35% and "no draw" at 79%.
In short : Montenegro are favourites for this Montenegro v Armenia, with a 65% win probability from our model. In the table, Montenegro (1st, 9 pts) host Armenia (3rd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montenegro – Armenia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (13.1%); the 5 scores below add up to 53% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montenegro 1-0 Armenia | 13.1% |
| Montenegro 2-0 Armenia | 12.6% |
| Montenegro 1-1 Armenia | 10.0% |
| Montenegro 2-1 Armenia | 9.6% |
| Montenegro 3-0 Armenia | 8.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.69 goals in total (1.93 for Montenegro, 0.76 for Armenia): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 46%. Montenegro keep a clean sheet in 47% of scenarios, Armenia in 15%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.93 |
| Armenia expected goals | 0.76 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 47% |
| Armenia clean sheet | 15% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Armenia · UEFA Nations League | 3-2 | W |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cyprus · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
Armenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Cyprus · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Montenegro · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Latvia · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 1 | 9 | 3 |
| Armenia | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2025 | Montenegro 2-2 Armenia | International Friendlies |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Armenia 1-0 Montenegro | International Friendlies |
| Jun 10, 2017 | Montenegro 4-1 Armenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 11, 2016 | Armenia 3-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Out and doubtful
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Armenia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- B. Popović3/5
- M. Janković3/5
- M. Osmajić3/5
- N. Krstović3/5
- A. Bulatović2/5
- I. Vujacic2/5
- I. Vujačić2/5
- M. Roganović2/5
- O. Gašević2/5
- S. Jovetić2/5
- S. Loncar2/5
Armenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Miranyan5/5
- E. Piloyan5/5
- E. Spertsyan5/5
- G. Harutyunyan5/5
- K. Hovhannisyan5/5
- N. Tiknizyan5/5
- A. Bandikyan3/5
- A. Serobyan3/5
- Junior Julio2/5
- O. Čančarević2/5
- U. Iwu2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
- Romania 0-1 SwedenOct 5, 2026
- Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 PolandOct 5, 2026
- Ukraine 1-2 HungaryOct 5, 2026
- Northern Ireland 0-0 GeorgiaOct 5, 2026
- Kazakhstan 2-2 Faroe IslandsOct 6, 2026
- Albania 2-1 San MarinoOct 6, 2026
- Switzerland 3-0 North MacedoniaOct 6, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Montenegro vs Armenia prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Montenegro a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Armenia 14%. Montenegro are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-0.
What is the most likely correct score for Montenegro vs Armenia?
1-0 (13.1%), followed by 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%) and 3-0 (8.1%).
Will both teams score in Montenegro vs Armenia?
The probability that both Montenegro and Armenia score is 46%. Montenegro have a 47% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Armenia 15%.
How many goals should we expect in Montenegro vs Armenia?
The model expects 2.69 goals (1.93 for Montenegro, 0.76 for Armenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Montenegro vs Armenia played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Gradski Stadion, Podgorica.
What form are Montenegro and Armenia in?
Montenegro: 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches (10 scored, 6 conceded). Armenia: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (6 scored, 7 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Montenegro and Armenia?
In the last 4 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 1 win for Montenegro, 2 for Armenia and 1 draw. The most recent ended Montenegro 2-2 Armenia (Jun 9, 2025).
What was the Montenegro vs Armenia result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Montenegro 0-0 Armenia. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Montenegro (65%), while a draw was rated at only 21%. The final score ranked 6th among the most likely scorelines (6.8%), behind 1-0. On goals, the model did not expect both teams to score (46%): correct; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (50%): missed.
How is the Montenegro vs Armenia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.93 for Montenegro, 0.76 for Armenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montenegro predictions
- All Armenia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology