UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Monday, October 5, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Montenegro vs Armenia prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Montenegro vs Armenia kicks off on Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Montenegro (55%), ahead of the draw (24%) and a Armenia win (21%). The most likely correct score is 1-0 (11.7%), ahead of 1-1 (11.4%) and 2-0 (10.0%).
Over their last 5 matches, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Armenia have not won any of their last 5 matches (2 draws, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 14. Recent momentum is clearly with Montenegro. On average Montenegro score 1.80 and concede 1.60 goals per game; Armenia score 0.80 and concede 2.80.
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Montenegro and Armenia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level. In double chance terms, "Montenegro or draw" stands at 79%, "Armenia or draw" at 45% and "no draw" at 76%.
In short : Montenegro are favourites for this Montenegro v Armenia, with a 55% win probability from our model. On recent form, Montenegro have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 while Armenia have 0 win, 2 draws and 3 losses in 5. Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Montenegro – Armenia. 1-0 is the single most likely scoreline (11.7%); the 5 scores below add up to 50% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Montenegro 1-0 Armenia | 11.7% |
| Montenegro 1-1 Armenia | 11.4% |
| Montenegro 2-0 Armenia | 10.0% |
| Montenegro 2-1 Armenia | 9.7% |
| Montenegro 0-0 Armenia | 6.9% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.68 goals in total (1.71 for Montenegro, 0.97 for Armenia): over 2.5 goals has a 50% probability and both teams to score 51%. Montenegro keep a clean sheet in 38% of scenarios, Armenia in 18%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Montenegro expected goals | 1.71 |
| Armenia expected goals | 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% |
| Montenegro clean sheet | 38% |
| Armenia clean sheet | 18% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Montenegro
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia · International Friendlies | 2-2 | D |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria · International Friendlies | 1-0 | W |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia · International Friendlies | 2-3 | L |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra · International Friendlies | 2-0 | W |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 2-3 | L |
Armenia
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-9 | L |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Hungary · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 0-1 | L |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Head-to-head
Our data holds no recent head-to-head between Montenegro and Armenia: the prediction relies on each team's form and level.
Out and doubtful
Montenegro
No absences reported.
Armenia
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Montenegro
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- A. Bulatovic3/5
- A. Marusic3/5
- M. Jankovic3/5
- M. Osmajic3/5
- Balša Popović2/5
- I. Vujacic2/5
- Igor Vujačić2/5
- Milan Vukotić2/5
- N. Krstovic2/5
- S. Haksabanovic2/5
- S. Loncar2/5
Armenia
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- K. Hovhannisyan6/5
- N. Tiknizyan5/5
- E. Piloyan4/5
- E. Spertsyan4/5
- G. Ranos4/5
- G. Harutyunyan3/5
- H. Avagyan3/5
- Junior Julio3/5
- S. Muradyan3/5
- A. Miranyan2/5
- A. Serobyan2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Montenegro vs Armenia prediction?
Our AI gives Montenegro a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Armenia 21%. Montenegro are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Montenegro vs Armenia?
1-0 (11.7%), followed by 1-1 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%) and 0-0 (6.9%).
Will both teams score in Montenegro vs Armenia?
The probability that both Montenegro and Armenia score is 51%. Montenegro have a 38% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Armenia 18%.
How many goals should we expect in Montenegro vs Armenia?
The model expects 2.68 goals (1.71 for Montenegro, 0.97 for Armenia). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 50%, over 3.5 goals 28%.
When and where is Montenegro vs Armenia played?
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Montenegro and Armenia in?
Montenegro: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 8 conceded). Armenia: 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 14 conceded).
How is the Montenegro vs Armenia prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.71 for Montenegro, 0.97 for Armenia) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Montenegro predictions
- All Armenia predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology