UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Wales vs Denmark prediction: correct score and AI tips
Match analysis
UEFA Nations League: Wales vs Denmark kicks off on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time). The edge goes to Wales (50%), ahead of the draw (25%) and a Denmark win (25%). The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.8%), ahead of 1-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.5%).
Wales have not won any of their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 6. Over their last 5 matches, Denmark have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Recent momentum is clearly with Denmark. On average Wales score 0.80 and concede 1.20 goals per game; Denmark score 1.80 and concede 1.00. In the table, Wales sit 4th with 0 points from 1 games, Denmark 3rd with 0 points from 1. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wales, 3 for Denmark and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021). In double chance terms, "Wales or draw" stands at 75%, "Denmark or draw" at 50% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Wales are favourites for this Wales v Denmark, with a 50% win probability from our model. In the table, Wales (4th, 0 pts) host Denmark (3rd, 0 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Wales – Denmark. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.8%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wales 1-1 Denmark | 11.8% |
| Wales 1-0 Denmark | 10.9% |
| Wales 2-1 Denmark | 9.5% |
| Wales 2-0 Denmark | 8.8% |
| Wales 0-1 Denmark | 7.3% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.70 goals in total (1.62 for Wales, 1.08 for Denmark): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 53%. Wales keep a clean sheet in 34% of scenarios, Denmark in 20%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Wales expected goals | 1.62 |
| Denmark expected goals | 1.08 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Wales clean sheet | 34% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 20% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Bosnia & Herzegovina · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
Denmark
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Czechia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 1-1 | D |
| Mar 26, 2026 | North Macedonia · World Cup - Qualification Europe | 4-0 | W |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Denmark | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2021 | Wales 0-4 Denmark | Euro Championship |
| Nov 16, 2018 | Wales 1-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Denmark 2-0 Wales | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Wales
No absences reported.
Denmark
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Wales
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- N. Williams5/5
- D. Brooks4/5
- E. Ampadu4/5
- J. Dasilva4/5
- J. Rodon4/5
- J. Sheehan4/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- D. James3/5
- K. Darlow3/5
- B. Cabango2/5
- D. Lawlor2/5
Denmark
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Maehle4/5
- P. Hojbjerg4/5
- A. Bah3/5
- J. Andersen3/5
- M. Damsgaard3/5
- M. Hermansen3/5
- M. Hjulmand3/5
- P. Dorgu3/5
- R. Hojlund3/5
- V. Froholdt3/5
- A. Christensen2/5
First detailed prediction free, no card required.
See the full prediction (scenario, scorers, half-time)Other matches in this competition
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Frequently asked questions
What is the Wales vs Denmark prediction?
Our AI gives Wales a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Denmark 25%. Wales are therefore favourites.
What is the most likely correct score for Wales vs Denmark?
1-1 (11.8%), followed by 1-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.8%) and 0-1 (7.3%).
Will both teams score in Wales vs Denmark?
The probability that both Wales and Denmark score is 53%. Wales have a 34% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Denmark 20%.
How many goals should we expect in Wales vs Denmark?
The model expects 2.70 goals (1.62 for Wales, 1.08 for Denmark). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Wales vs Denmark played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League.
What form are Wales and Denmark in?
Wales: 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 6 conceded). Denmark: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches (9 scored, 5 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Wales and Denmark?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wales, 3 for Denmark and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021).
How is the Wales vs Denmark prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.62 for Wales, 1.08 for Denmark) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Wales predictions
- All Denmark predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology