UEFA Nations League· Kick-off : Sunday, October 4, 2026, 19:45 (UK time)
Wales vs Denmark: 0-1 result and AI prediction review
Review: prediction vs result
Final score: Wales 0-1 Denmark. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Wales (51%), while victory for Denmark was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.
Match analysis
Wales vs Denmark was played on Sunday, October 4, 2026 (UEFA Nations League). Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Before kick-off, our model gave Wales a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Denmark 24%. The most likely correct score is 1-1 (11.6%), ahead of 1-0 (11.0%) and 2-1 (9.6%).
Wales have won just one of their last 5 matches (1 draw, 3 defeats), scoring 4 and conceding 7. Over their last 5 matches, Denmark have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring 8 and conceding 8. On recent form, there is little to separate the two teams. On average Wales score 0.80 and concede 1.40 goals per game; Denmark score 1.60 and concede 1.60. In the table, Wales sit 4th with 3 points from 3 games, Denmark 2nd with 3 points from 3. The two teams are close in the standings.
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wales, 3 for Denmark and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021). In double chance terms, "Wales or draw" stands at 76%, "Denmark or draw" at 49% and "no draw" at 75%.
In short : Wales are favourites for this Wales v Denmark, with a 51% win probability from our model. In the table, Wales (4th, 3 pts) host Denmark (2nd, 3 pts). Our model's most likely scoreline: 1-1.
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
Double chance
Most likely correct scores
Scores shown as Wales – Denmark. 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline (11.6%); the 5 scores below add up to 48% of all outcomes, which is why an exact score remains hard to call.
| Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wales 1-1 Denmark | 11.6% |
| Wales 1-0 Denmark | 11.0% |
| Wales 2-1 Denmark | 9.6% |
| Wales 2-0 Denmark | 9.1% |
| Wales 0-1 Denmark | 7.1% |
Goals: both teams to score, over/under
The model expects 2.71 goals in total (1.65 for Wales, 1.06 for Denmark): over 2.5 goals has a 51% probability and both teams to score 53%. Wales keep a clean sheet in 35% of scenarios, Denmark in 19%.
| Probability | |
|---|---|
| Wales expected goals | 1.65 |
| Denmark expected goals | 1.06 |
| Both teams to score | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Wales clean sheet | 35% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 19% |
Recent form
Latest matches in all competitions, at the time of the prediction.
Wales
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-1 | W |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Denmark · UEFA Nations League | 0-2 | L |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 0-1 | L |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania · International Friendlies | 1-2 | L |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Ghana · International Friendlies | 1-1 | D |
Denmark
| Date | Opponent | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Portugal · UEFA Nations League | 2-4 | L |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Wales · UEFA Nations League | 2-0 | W |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway · UEFA Nations League | 2-3 | L |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine · International Friendlies | 2-1 | W |
| Jun 3, 2026 | DR Congo · International Friendlies | 0-0 | D |
Standings before the match
| Pos. | Points | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wales | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Denmark | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2021 | Wales 0-4 Denmark | Euro Championship |
| Nov 16, 2018 | Wales 1-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Denmark 2-0 Wales | UEFA Nations League |
Out and doubtful
Wales
No absences reported.
Denmark
No absences reported.
Most regular starters
Wales
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- E. Ampadu5/5
- N. Williams5/5
- D. James4/5
- D. Ward4/5
- B. Davies3/5
- B. Johnson3/5
- J. Dasilva3/5
- J. Sheehan3/5
- K. Moore3/5
- S. Thomas3/5
- B. Cabango2/5
Denmark
Starts over the last 5 matches (official line-ups).
- J. Andersen4/5
- O. Provstgaard4/5
- P. Dorgu4/5
- R. Kristensen4/5
- J. Mæhle3/5
- M. Damsgaard3/5
- M. Hjulmand3/5
- P. Højbjerg3/5
- R. Højlund3/5
- A. Christensen2/5
- A. Daghim2/5
Other matches in this competition
- Azerbaijan 1-0 LithuaniaOct 4, 2026
- Malta 1-0 AndorraOct 4, 2026
- Kosovo 1-1 AustriaOct 4, 2026
- Portugal 2-1 NorwayOct 4, 2026
- Greece 0-0 GermanyOct 4, 2026
- Ireland 1-1 IsraelOct 4, 2026
- Netherlands 2-1 SerbiaOct 4, 2026
- Cyprus 2-1 LatviaOct 5, 2026
- Italy 3-1 TürkiyeOct 5, 2026
- France 4-1 BelgiumOct 5, 2026
Frequently asked questions
What is the Wales vs Denmark prediction?
Before the match, our AI gave Wales a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Denmark 24%. Wales are therefore favourites. Final score: 0-1.
What is the most likely correct score for Wales vs Denmark?
1-1 (11.6%), followed by 1-0 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.1%) and 0-1 (7.1%).
Will both teams score in Wales vs Denmark?
The probability that both Wales and Denmark score is 53%. Wales have a 35% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Denmark 19%.
How many goals should we expect in Wales vs Denmark?
The model expects 2.71 goals (1.65 for Wales, 1.06 for Denmark). Probabilities: over 1.5 goals 75%, over 2.5 goals 51%, over 3.5 goals 29%.
When and where is Wales vs Denmark played?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 19:45 (UK time), UEFA Nations League. Venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff.
What form are Wales and Denmark in?
Wales: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches (4 scored, 7 conceded). Denmark: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches (8 scored, 8 conceded).
What is the head-to-head record between Wales and Denmark?
In the last 3 meetings between the two sides, the record reads 0 wins for Wales, 3 for Denmark and 0 draws. The most recent ended Wales 0-4 Denmark (Jun 26, 2021).
What was the Wales vs Denmark result, and was the prediction right?
Final score: Wales 0-1 Denmark. The outcome was missed: the model favoured victory for Wales (51%), while victory for Denmark was rated at only 24%. The final score ranked 5th among the most likely scorelines (7.1%), behind 1-1. On goals, the model expected both teams to score (53%): missed; it pointed to over 2.5 goals (51%): missed.
How is the Wales vs Denmark prediction calculated?
The model estimates each team's expected goals (1.65 for Wales, 1.06 for Denmark) from recent form, xG and standings, then applies a Poisson distribution: every possible score gets a probability, from which the 1X2, correct score, both teams to score and total goals are derived. Every figure is calculated, none is made up.
Go further
- All Wales predictions
- All Denmark predictions
- UEFA Nations League predictions
- Today’s predictions
- Our methodology